Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
I'm so confused and my brain is so overloaded from all the info I've recieved here! Hubby works at one of the casinos so we're a bit afraid of him being out of work!
When SHOULD that turn more north happen (or is it a turn west?)
Well, the system is predicted to slowly arc north, as seen in 's maps (link below). Exactly when it happens is part of what we've been debating for the last 6 hours or so, and I don't have any useful answer to give you.
Edited by SkeetoBite (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:36 PM)
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
I don't follow that one. The official track spares NO; it goes to the right of the city. Now if it had the path going just to the left of Lake Ponchatrain, then I could understand why there would be a lot of concern.
Yeah, the eye misses NO, but the storm surge and strongest winds don't. NOs sits below sealevel. The dikes can't hold back the kind of surge and storm driven waves they are talking about. I believe when they were talking about last year, the worst path for a storm to take, pertaining to NOs, was just to its east.
--RC
Can you give some more information on that? The strong winds would be offshore, and the storm surge mainly to the east of the eye, in MS. The main source of any rising water in the NO area would be the low barometric pressure, not a storm surge as such. Note: the strongest winds are always to the east of the eye, and with the current predicted landfall would all occur in MS, not LA - except for the very outlying delta areas in the Gulf well to the SE of New Orleans.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:32 PM)
|
kim_in_pensacola
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Loc: Pensacola, FL
|
|
I'm originally from NO and now live in Pensacola. If a storm hits to the east of NO and the wind is pushing water into Lake Ponchartrain the water will just pile up and spill over into the city. New Orleans has always feared a storm approaching from that direction.
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
I've just gone browsing the Satellite IR images again...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html
That trough to the north sure looks like it has become a feeder band. The eye is clearly visible. And the track is still west southwest.
If I were to guess I'd say with that trough being absorbed as a feeder band will make the system more symetric, and thus more powerful. You can already see the banding on the northside stretching out to the trough and the trouch arcing south into the hurricane. A symetric system has a better chance at strengthening.
|
Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Highlands County, Florida
|
|
Are the models fairly close in agreement now? (Talking about Path, not intensity) is turning out to be very spunky. Was interesting in the report to have it called stubborn...
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Quote:
I'm originally from NO and now live in Pensacola. If a storm hits to the east of NO and the wind is pushing water into Lake Ponchartrain the water will just pile up and spill over into the city. New Orleans has always feared a storm approaching from that direction.
Alright I have to go look at mapquest.
Where would the water come from that would be pushed into a lake? Remember a lake just has its own water, there is no other water that would get in there.
If I understand the gist of what you're saying, Lake Ponchatrain is to the N of the city and you believe simply the force of the wind would drive the water from the lake S into the city, over the dikes?
Edit - OK, NO is sandwiched between the river on the S and the lake on the N, and looking at the map you can see that a strong hurricane passing to the west of the city would undoubtably cause more damage from rising water, because of the water being pushed up from the onshore winds, than a hurricane passing to the east of the city, which by contrast only pulls the water away. The only risk with the latter would be wind-driven waves cresting over the levees from the lake, and I seriously doubt that the levees would be compromised by such a scenario.
Besides, the predicted landfall is so far to the east that it is clear that the NO area would not get any of the high winds associated with the small area around the eye, if landfall would follow the forecast path.
I still hold by my original conclusion that for NO to go into a panic over this predicted path is really doing a disservice to the people in MS who really would need to evacuate and would need those freeways and hotels, etc, that would be taken by those needlessly evacuating the NO area.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:44 PM)
|
Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Highlands County, Florida
|
|
Looks like you are seeing that western movement in the last few clips rather than the S SW movement as well.
|
SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
|
|
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
That trough to the north sure looks like it has become a feeder band. The eye is clearly visible. And the track is still west southwest.
If I were to guess I'd say with that trough being absorbed as a feeder band will make the system more symetric, and thus more powerful. You can already see the banding on the northside stretching out to the trough and the trouch arcing south into the hurricane. A symetric system has a better chance at strengthening.
I agree. It's all up to the high pressure now. I would not be surprised if I wake up (about to head to bed now!) to find that is in the upper ranges of Cat 3 and further WSW of where it now is. Could this thing enter the Yucatan Channel from the NORTH??? Looks like that is where it is headed. Is there a strong trough coming along that could dig down and lift it north now? The existing troughs don't appear to be strong enough.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
|
|
The truth is is that nobody knows where this hurricane is going. Anybody living on The Gulf needs to monitor this storm very closely. You hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Matt 
--------------------
Matt
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
Can you give some more information on that? The strong winds would be offshore, and the storm surge mainly to the east of the eye, in MS. The main source of any rising water in the NO area would be the low barometric pressure, not a storm surge as such. Note: the strongest winds are always to the east of the eye, and with the current predicted landfall would all occur in MS, not LA - except for the very outlying delta areas in the Gulf well to the SE of New Orleans.
I'm reading through news articles from last year and not seeing where I saw that about NOs. As I remember: The storm surge, the result of the low pressure, in a large enough storm extends far enough away from the eye that a near miss can still cause a dangerous surge level. With a strong hurricane, winds from the north east through southeast (those that would happen throughout the north quadrant of the storm) would back water up the bay north of NOs, increasing the Louisiana/Mississippi coast. This is why a near miss is almost more deadly in the way of a storm surge for NOs then a direct hit. The extra threat with a direct hit is, of course, the eye wall.
P.S. - Don't quote me! I'm not an expert on this 
P.P.S. - I'm also not that familiar with land features in that area. I'd have to pull out my Geology text to get details
Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:44 PM)
|
lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
how far inland does a 5 do damage?
The Cat 5 winds? Not very far.
The winds weaken rapidly upon landfall.
The thing that is very different about a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane is the extremely small area that is prone to almost complete devastation. Even with a Cat 2 direct hit there can be flooding that requires total evacuation, but with a Cat 4 or 5 there is an area that you come home to...nothing. Now 10 or 15 miles down the road, or 3 or 4 miles inland -- no devastation.
I wouldn't generalize that much. was a Cat 4 that had a 5+ mile wide swath that was devasting from Punta Gorda to almost Orlando. Every storm is different. Size, speed, land topography etc.
|
Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Highlands County, Florida
|
|
Finally I believe you will see the storm going west now, and then begin it's turn...
|
lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
|
|
Skeeto,
Not gonna add the coordinants and wind speeds anymore?
that was your trademark!
|
ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
|
|
For an explanation of why people are so concerned about New Orleans and the "slosh" factor, see Washing Away
In other news, Nightline is doing a piece tonight about ... and New Orleans.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
The truth is is that nobody knows where this hurricane is going. Anybody living on The Gulf needs to monitor this storm very closely. You hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Matt
Is it just me or is this thing SHRINKING??? Looking at the water vaper and IR loops it definately looks like a tighter circulation at the end of the loop than at the beginning. Very very BAD!!! Small storms = strong storms!!!
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
|
|
Lake Ponchitrain is open to the Gulf on the east and a storm with an easterly fetch will push water into the lake with no place to go except over the levies into NO
--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
Quote:
If I understand the gist of what you're saying, Lake Ponchatrain is to the N of the city and you believe simply the force of the wind would drive the water from the lake S into the city, over the dikes?
That would be just one of many scenarios that could cause breaches in the flood control system in NO. It is not designed to handle a storm like this. Heck, it can't handle a lot of rainfall as it is. Also, don't concentrate on the line. On that path NO is well within the major danger zone. With a forecast like that, I would suspect that NO has no choice but a massive evacuation.
--------------------
Jim
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
Is it just me or is this thing SHRINKING??? Looking at the water vaper and IR loops it definately looks like a tighter circulation at the end of the loop than at the beginning. Very very BAD!!! Small storms = strong storms!!!
Not entirely true. However, shrinking storms = strong storms.
You can have a large strong storm, but it takes more time to develop.
And yes, shrinking is not good news. I'm seeing that too. The central circulation is tightening up around the eye, which is becoming better and better defined on IR.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
Hugh, I really doubt that they will or even can move the Casinos as they are sitting in the mud on in the MS sound.... most are designed to be frangible, the walls just tear out but the super structure remains intact so it can be rebuilt... ALL would suffer tremendous damage from the surge.... Georges put Grand and a few others in Biloxi out of business for weeks... this is NOT a Georges for us...
The Beaux is well built I admit... and would probably survive... perhaps I was a little hast to say all would be destroyed, but all would be out of commission for a very long time, however long it would take to totally rebuild them from the remaining structure... some may not rebuilt... I was here for Camille... you probably couldn't even get to a Casino for some time...hell who would want to... no power for weeks or months... Hey if were talking a strong Cat 4 or 5 this is going to devistate the Casino Industry for a long time, along with coast intrastruct as well... Camille destroyed the south bound lane on HWY 90 in many sections, I saw it first hand, I am a Cat 5 survivor... you just can't imagine
Will they all be destroyed no, you are right... but they might as well be...
Edited by Frank P (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:50 PM)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
