danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/CSPHIH%20main%20website.htm
http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.ed...y%20Floodtf.htm
http://www.pubs.asce.org/ceonline/ceonline03/0603feat.html
http://www.nd.edu/%7Eadcirc/ivan.htm
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Also, don't concentrate on the line. On that path NO is well within the major danger zone. With a forecast like that, I would suspect that NO has no choice but a massive evacuation.
Exactly!
Remember that the line is the "central forcast track" from the . Take their 1-2-3 model. Landfall near NO is predicted at 72 hours. Based on the 1-2-3 model, there might be error of up to 300 nautical miles. That is one h*** of a big distance when it comes to pinpointing landfall.
I'm not saying that there is that big an error, but even a hundred mile error could make all the difference for a state along the gulf coast. Look at how much the forcast track has moved in just the past day.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
how far inland does a 5 do damage?
The Cat 5 winds? Not very far.
The winds weaken rapidly upon landfall.
The thing that is very different about a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane is the extremely small area that is prone to almost complete devastation. Even with a Cat 2 direct hit there can be flooding that requires total evacuation, but with a Cat 4 or 5 there is an area that you come home to...nothing. Now 10 or 15 miles down the road, or 3 or 4 miles inland -- no devastation.
I wouldn't generalize that much. was a Cat 4 that had a 5+ mile wide swath that was devasting from Punta Gorda to almost Orlando. Every storm is different. Size, speed, land topography etc.
I'm sorry; I should have been more specific - by total devastation I meant that none of the buildings are left standing.
I didn't follow hurricane so can you tell me how far inland from the shoreline that occured.
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 27 2005 12:02 AM)
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Skeeto,
Not gonna add the coordinants and wind speeds anymore?
that was your trademark!
This one may push me to render a manual map for landfall. Let's see when it's 24hrs away.
I'll probably annotate one of our new maps. I was becoming concerned by using the Microsoft Street maps considering we just signed our second deal with McGraw Hill in a week to license some of our maps for publication. Under the Microsoft MapPoint license agreement, we can only publish 1,000 maps at any given time and we cannot market their maps with our overlays.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I don't know what to make of this Hurricane and I don't think the does either. If it's going to find a weakness and move North it seems to me the 's track has it going WNW for too long. I don't know what to make of it and it's stressing me out just thinking about it. I think I need to go to bed..... Everyone in the cone of uncertainty should be ready. I expect the unexpected.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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OK, very good points.
I think the real underlying issue here is that there is such a large population on the N Gulf Coast, so few escape routes with such a small throughput, and so few places to stay within any reasonable driving distance, that there really is no practical evacuation plan that actually has a chance of working. This is especially true of the MS Gulf Coast, which is hemmed inbetween LA and AL, and because of the early NO evac, has no resources or places left for its residents to evacuate to. Another problem is that by the time LA and AL residents have all fled to central MS because that is where they have been directed to evacuate, there is no gas left to fill the cars of those going N from the MS coast, who have empty tanks from hours of bumper-to-bumper traffic.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Margie,
Charley 2004 was a Cat 4 at landfall. It traveled northeast across florida and was still a Cat 1 hurricane when it went back over water. This storm traveled approximately 165 miles over land. The devestation in Lake Wales was incredible. Lake Wales is exactly 72 miles from Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda.
Charley 2004
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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The word on New Orleans is this:
We lose the equivalent of about a football field every day in Louisiana. Most of the "land" south of the city is just canals, lakes, and wetlands. There are some spots where communities exist, but mostly it's just wet. Lake Borgne is connected directly to both Lake Pontchartrain near the Rigolets and the Gulf of Mexico. The theory on the doomsday scenario is a storm moving up from the ESE heading WNW and passing south of the City. This piles the water up to the coast, pushes it through Lake Borgne and into Lake Pontchartrain. The north winds from the eye to our south pushes water to the Southshore of Lake Pontchartrain. Water then breaches over and through the levees. Much of our city is 5' below sea level and lower. Most estimates are that a Cat 5 puts between 20-25' (3 stories ish) into a great part of the Southshore (area roughly south of Lake Pontchartrain and roughly north of the Mississippi River). This is New Orleans, Kenner, Metairie and smaller communities. My property is exactly sea level. My house is roughly 3' raised. That means I'd have to swim up to one of my pecan trees or maybe on top of the either of the doctor's 2-story houses that sit across the street and next door to me.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Quote:
I didn't follow hurricane so can you tell me how far inland from the shoreline that occured.
Margie, Orlando, where I lived at the time is roughly 120 miles inland from 's point of landfall. There was heavy, heavy damage in about an ten-fifteen mile wide swath from 441 (Orange Blossom Trail) to a mile or so east of the 417 Expressway (Greeneway). Many people don't realize the extent to which Orlando was hammered. I speak from firsthand knowledge, my own home and church suffered a ton of damage. When I speak to friends from out of state about the experiences of Orlando with , it is often the first they hear of it. For some reason the level of damage inland from (let's say Arcadia through Daytona) does not seem to have gotten the coverage in the national media.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Sat Aug 27 2005 12:04 AM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
Skeeto,
Not gonna add the coordinants and wind speeds anymore?
that was your trademark!
This one may push me to render a manual map for landfall. Let's see when it's 24hrs away.
I'll probably annotate one of our new maps. I was becoming concerned by using the Microsoft Street maps considering we just signed our second deal with McGraw Hill in a week to license some of our maps for publication. Under the Microsoft MapPoint license agreement, we can only publish 1,000 maps at any given time and we cannot market their maps with our overlays.
understood.
gotta pay the bills!
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
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If any of you have not yet seen the 0z , it is predicting the strongest hurricane I have ever seen the predict over New Orleans at noon on Monday. It has a smidgeon farther east and even stronger than it predicted at 18Z.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I can add that was still Cat 3 when it went over my house just SW of Kissimmee. Wind gust disabled my anemometer at 80 MPH and blew away a shed in my back yard that had strap down rated for 115MPH. Shed was also full of lawn equipment in side when it took the whole thing and wegded it between mine and a neighbors house.
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Jim
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
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can you send a link please...
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
If any of you have not yet seen the 0z , it is predicting the strongest hurricane I have ever seen the predict over New Orleans at noon on Monday. It has a smidgeon farther east and even stronger than it predicted at 18Z.
Got a source? TCGenisis and CyclonePhase are still stuck on the 12Z .
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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Quote:
How likely will disrupt oil production in the GOM?
For some really strange reason, the gnomes of Wall Street seem to have decided this afternoon that the oil industry was safe. I'm thinking they could wake up Monday morning to a very different calculus and spike oil prices considerably. Certainly, I think the terminals and on-shore facilities in south Louisiana are at risk and, if it goes west a bit more, the huge refinery infrastructure between Houston and the LA state line could be as well.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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The fact that it still is moving WSW and the 3-day track has it initialized as due W makes me think the shifting is not over...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205300.shtml?3day
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Meteorological conditions are not favorable for sleeping...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Random, go to the Central Operations Page (google for that) and run it.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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susieq
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
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Looks to me like its taken a little jog to the north...
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Meteorological conditions are not favorable for sleeping...
We better get some sleep for the next 2 nights. Sunday Night and Monday Night might be busy.~danielw
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I'm now seeing a westward movement in the last few frames of the water vapor image. Pay attention to the orange eye rather than the overall circulation:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
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I think I'll sleep now. Hard to do that with such an impressive storm out there!
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