Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Well that's really good news (the HPC points)...south of Lake Charles LA is just about the only place on the N Gulf Coast where the coastline is sparsely populated.
However the lat/lon is identical to the path of (sorry, Frank P) Camille - Waveland, MS.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:29 AM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
>>72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 (Biloxi ish) 115g140
Jason, that's a hair North east of me. My house is about 29.9/89.9. It would either imply a NW heading at landfall or a hit somewhere in the Slidell, Pearl River, Waveland, Henderson Point, Bay St. Louis areas, wouldn't it? (just going off of memory since I didn't check any of their actual cordinates).
Steve
At first blush, it looks like Diamondhead to me...I'll need to wait on actually plottable on my stuff when the adv comes out...
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Jason Kelley
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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User
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I found this site a few months ago. Thanks to all for the great information.
I am in Fort Collins, Co. so my only direct connection to hurricanes is that Dr. Grey works at nearby Colorado State Univeristy. I know his group makes a forcast for the number of storms each season.
Anyway, here is my question.
How likely will disrupt oil production in the GOM? I know the forcast is changing and no knows were the storm will go.
It seems this is one storm that could affect everyone in the United States not just the unlucky ones along the coast.
Doug Baker
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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I am sure the people south of Lake Charles LA do not think so.. 
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Quote:
Ralph, the predictions were not for it to be a strong 4/5 already. has already overshot the intensity estimates from last night. Give it time... the intensity is more likely than not going to go way up.
Im taking about the predictions of the people on here not the ones who know what they are talking about.Yesterday people were talking strong 4 easy and a cat 3 when it got to the gulf.
So i was referring to the people on here who also said it was going to go upthe west coast but all those guys are not around now.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Im at 89... 89.5 is the MS/LA line.... I could live with that even with a Cat 4..
Edited by Frank P (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:27 AM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Im glad we have not seen any sign of this coming into a strong cat 4 storm or a 5 like many thought it would be already.
Many were thinking as soon as it hit the GOM it would be a 3 but thank you for the dry air.
What are you talking about? This is probably going to be a very dangerous situation in the following days. The official forecast has a solid category four making landfall along the gulf coast. The cyclone remained consolidated throughout it’s duration over the peninsula, and there is really no reason for it not to deepen. Which it is. As was pointed out earlier... it is infact overshooting most of the sound early intensity estimates.
are you reading what the is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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Quote:
I found this site a few months ago. Thanks to all for the great information.
I am in Fort Collins, Co. so my only direct connection to hurricanes is that Dr. Grey works at nearby Colorado State Univeristy. I know his group makes a forcast for the number of storms each season.
Anyway, here is my question.
How likely will disrupt oil production in the GOM? I know the forcast is changing and no knows were the storm will go.
It seems this is one storm that could affect everyone in the United States not just the unlucky ones along the coast.
Doug Baker
Per CNN & Fox News the rigs began evacuating this afternoon. But that was before the shift west. They could clear out all of the LA coastal rigs tommorrow if the forecast path remains consistent tommorrow.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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well ralph if i am not mistaken that is 115 kts which equates to around 130-133 mph which if i am not mistaken IS 4
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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kim_in_pensacola
Registered User
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Loc: Pensacola, FL
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My girlfriend's husband is a helicopter pilot for the rigs. They are definitely moving out.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Diamondhead is north of BSL..... 89.36
sorry typo
Edited by Frank P (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:32 AM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
are you reading what the is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
115 KNOTS is Cat 4...that is the forecast....
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Jason Kelley
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Doug,
I don't know if you can trade futures on a Saturday or not (maybe overseas), and I'm not even sure how all that works. But with current thinking, the daily record run up in oil prices ain't stopped yet. But if investors were giddy today, they're going to be going insane tomorrow unless a shift in the models and edges back toward Alabama. The refineries and production could be hampered beyond belief with an LA or TX (first time I've said that word) offshore threat. I don't know where it's going, but I can promise you that investors will be even more skiddish tomorrow. 
PS Send me a 5% cut.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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are you reading what the is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
That was 115 knots, Not MPH. 114-135 knots is Cat 4.
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Jim
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Doug,
I don't know if you can trade futures on a Saturday or not (maybe overseas), and I'm not even sure how all that works. But with current thinking, the daily record run up in oil prices ain't stopped yet. But if investors were giddy today, they're going to be going insane tomorrow unless a shift in the models and edges back toward Alabama. The refineries and production could be hampered beyond belief with an LA or TX (first time I've said that word) offshore threat. I don't know where it's going, but I can promise you that investors will be even more skiddish tomorrow.
PS Send me a 5% cut.
Steve
If this forecast verifies, get ready for 3 dollar plus gas next week...
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Sat Aug 27 2005 02:33 AM)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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I am still not trusting the models. Don't think it will get that far west. Hugh's ideas are close to my thinking.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Quote:
Quote:
are you reading what the is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
115 KNOTS is Cat 4...that is the forecast....
thats fine but on there forcast map they have a red dot right at landfall and red dot is a 3...http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512.html
Im going by what they posted.But this time last night people were calling for it to be a 4 already which at least right now its not near that.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I'm all gassed up, sure wish I had a hybrid... this thing hits coastal LA as a 4 and 3.00 gas might be a bargain.... you'll think 2.50 would be like giving it away.... I sure hope this scenario does not come to fruition....
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Just heard on possible cat.3 overnight. Guess we will have to wait and see
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
If this forecast verifies, get ready for 3 dollar plus gas next week...
No kidding. Been telling everyone I know to fill up on the cheap gas this weekend. You can imagine the funny looks I am getting when i call it cheap.
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Jim
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