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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana
      #50579 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:25 AM

10:45 AM Update
Hurricane Watches are now up for Southeastern parts of Louisiana, including the New Orleans Metropolitan area and lake Ponchartrain.

Folks in the area need to begin to prepare now for a category 4+ strike.

More to come soon...

8AM Update
Katrina has become a major hurricane overnight, and now has 115MPH winds, it has now begun to move westward and eventually it will curve toward the northwest. There is still a great deal of uncertainty. Katrina, right now, has been very difficult to forecast accurately, and in general probably the most interesting-track wise-storm in a good while.



The current forecast track that the National Hurricane Center released, bends it back northward eventually moving in around coastal Louisiana/Mississippi. This presents a dilemma for the folks in New Orleans. The potential exists for a category 4 or 5, however models and track forecasts have been somewhat innacurate with this system so far. Add to the fact that there is nothing to shear the system currently, and probably won't be until Katrina nears landfall. And you have a very difficult call to make.

Folks in the cone will want to watch and pay attention to local media and officials in the area. I'm looking to see if the forecast track stays stable for an advisory or two. You cannot afford to play around with a system forecasted to be that strong in late August in the Gulf if you live along the coast. Pay attention immediately to watches and or warnings issued.

If past trends from other storms are any comparison, models may shift left and then back to the east some until they settle.


(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)


More to come as it is known.

Original Update
At 27/0400Z, Category II Hurricane Katrina with sustained winds of 90 knots was located in the Gulf of Mexico near 24.5N 83.9W. Movement continues to the west southwest and during the past couple of hours the forward speed has increased to about 10 knots.

The GOES satellite is now in its night-time orbital eclipse, so no new images for the next couple of hours. The continued west southwest motion and increased forward speed imply that the high pressure ridge extending westward from the high pressure center off the Mid-Atlantic coast remains quite strong - perhaps actually getting some fortification from Katrina's outflow. All of this adds uncertainty to her future track and final destination - with a chilling thought or two on a busted track forecast for Hurricane Mitch a few years ago - another famous 'southwest surprise'.

Most of the models, including the latest GFS run, bring Katrina into the northern Gulf coast on Monday as the Atlantic high pressure moves eastward and relaxes its grip on Katrina - well...maybe. The ridge is certainly stronger than previously anticipated, but sooner or later it will yield. Just how soon this happens is the real forecast dilemma and additional adjustments to the track forecast should be expected. Katrina should continue to strengthen and reach major hurricane status over the weekend.

In a recent Met Blog I stated that Katrina would probably still have at least one more surprise - and I still believe that. If you live along the Gulf coast, monitor this hurricane closely this weekend and be prepared to respond to updates to the NHC track forecasts.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, Invest 97L seems on the verge of becoming a Tropical Depression (located near 20.5N and 48W) - it may well be one already. Models forecast this system to intensify over the weekend and move generally northward remaining at sea. Another weak tropical wave (Invest 90L) is located in the east Atlantic. 90L is poorly organized but has some potential for additional development in about two or three days.
ED


Event Related Links
General Links
Report Katrina conditions in your area/read other's reports at this link (registration not required).

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management

Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East
Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL,
Walton County, FL,
Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA)
http://www.msema.org/index.htm
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management

Video/Audio Links
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
New Orleans Webcams

Television/Radio
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans)
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 - (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio

-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas let us know!

Katrina

Google Map plot of Katrina

Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Water Vapor Floater of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Spaghetti Model Plot of Katrina from Colorado State

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar
Eglin Air Force Bace, Radar Panhandle
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
New Orleans, LA Long Range Radar

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Talahassee, Mobile

Invest 97L


NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L

Invest 90L




Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 27 2005 03:55 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #50586 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:38 AM

Regarding the initial recon - and the drop of 13mb. I thought earlier (sat images from about 3 hours ago) it looked like it was deepening and the eyewall area looking better on sat. Even with that dry air, and not being able to completely close the eye wall, and with only a 3deg differential (could that be from the weak NW side?) it is still doing it's darndest to intensify.

OK so with 91kt in the NW quad, and 950mb, don't you expect to see Cat 3 winds in the SE quad? And if so, then do you think a Cat 3 status even with the open eyewall? A pressure of 950mb would seem to put it squarely in that category.

Was there a post just before the new thread that mentioned the SW quad recon info? I'll have to go back and look.

OK thanks Storm Hunter.

Well whether officially Cat 3 now or not, it's very close. Makes you wonder if the pressure will drop to something more typical of a Cat 4 by morning, even if the winds don't catch up right away.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain [Re: Margie]
      #50587 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:40 AM

MF243 M0839 MF104 on outbound as noted.

24.3 83.9 Max. Fl Winds 104 kts....... she's a cooking!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain [Re: Margie]
      #50588 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:50 AM

Now that I think about it. The 104 kt wind in the SE Quad. Could be from a convective tower/ spot wind gust.
No you generally see the Highest wind speeds in the NE Quadrant, in the Northern Hemisphere. Or the Right Front Quadrant, relative to the storm's heading. In this case, with Katrina heading WSW, the NW Quad...might have the highest winds. With an elongated, "open NNW", eyewall one would think that the winds wouldn't be maxed out in that area.

Coincidentally. I pulled up a Vortex report from Hurricane Andrew. At roughly the same longitude (83.6W), Andrew was at ( 25.8N) or about 80-90 miles further North.
Andrew's pressure was extrapolated to 946mbclose!, and the winds (line 'F') were 98kts with a(line 'Q') Max Flt Lvl wind of 121kts, taken 1 hr and 24min earlier.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain [Re: danielw]
      #50589 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:57 AM

from what i think i can tell, so far the plane is flying at 10,000ft, and is in the NE quad, fixing to turn and head sw or is already..... i noticed in a report a little while ago, they reported severe turbulence..in clear air..infrequent...on obs 7. wonder on next pass what the alt will be?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain [Re: danielw]
      #50590 - Sat Aug 27 2005 02:59 AM

Using the 11 PM EDT Wind speed chart from NHC.
They are forecasting Katrina to be at or above 110mph in 6 hours.
115 mph in 12 hours.
Peaked at 135mph in 24 hours...or at 11 PM EDT Saturday Night.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/025402.shtml?chart?large


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain [Re: danielw]
      #50591 - Sat Aug 27 2005 03:02 AM

It sounds like from the posts I have been catching up on plus the existing satellite pictures, that Kat is not making that northward turn yet. Could she be a Mexico Event in the making? It does seem like everything has gone to Mexico or the Texas border since Dennis.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain [Re: danielw]
      #50592 - Sat Aug 27 2005 03:10 AM

From your post: "Now that I think about it. The 104 kt wind in the SE Quad. Could be from a convective tower/ spot wind gust."

Yes you can still see this thing on Key West long-range and there is strong convection in the SE eyewall.

OK so not quite at Cat 3 even though it is still trying to get there. I just went back and looked and pressure has dropped almost 40mb since 7am Friday morning, and winds have increased from 75mph to 110mph, so that isn't shabby.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sat Aug 27 2005 03:14 AM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
T numbers [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #50593 - Sat Aug 27 2005 03:11 AM

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/0615 UT 24.4N 84.1W T6.0/6.0 Katrina -- Atlantic Ocean

that supports 115Kt winds, so everything seems to be signalling a cat... 4 by tomorrow afternoon?

and to think 24 hours ago, this storm was just exiting land as a (strong) tropical storm?

(By support, I don't mean to imply that the storm actually does have 115Kt winds... just what the T numbers would seem to be signalling
-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain [Re: Margie]
      #50594 - Sat Aug 27 2005 03:27 AM

Someone posted this earlier, but I'll repeat it.
Long Range Radar has it's benefits.
But at 256nm you are looking Way up into the storm.

Using a 0.5 deg elavation(standard elevation).
At 256miles has a Top Height of 28100ft.
And a Bottom Height of 14500ft.

Normal Range 125miles:
Has A Top Height of 24200ft.
And A Bottom Height of 11800 ft.

You will still get some idea of what is taking place but if the Radar were moved closer to the storm it would look much different.
http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/beamwidth/beamwidth.html


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Oops She Closed the Eyewall Off!! [Re: danielw]
      #50595 - Sat Aug 27 2005 03:30 AM

URNT12 KNHC 270722
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/07:10:40Z
B. 24 deg 27 min N
084 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2646 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 146 deg 104 kt
G. 051 deg 008 nm
H. 949 mb
I. 13 C/ 3045 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C14
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1212A Katrina OB 10
MAX FL WIND 104 KT NE QUAD 07:08:10 Z
STRONG BANDING IN NE QUAD

I checked this run against the first pass thru the Eye. The 104kt wind is consistant with the wind speeds prior to it and after it. The earlier report didn't look right. I'm not questioning their data...just my eyes~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 27 2005 04:27 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Oops She Closed the Eyewall Off!! [Re: danielw]
      #50598 - Sat Aug 27 2005 04:31 AM

27/0806z
Vortex-abbreviated.
pressure down to 945mb down 4mb in an hour!
closed eye wall
12nm miles diameter
Max Flt Lvl winds at 0708Z-104kt

I hope she doesn't continue with these pressure drops. The satellites are back up and the eye is easily seen.

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 27 2005 04:32 AM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Oops She Closed the Eyewall Off!! [Re: danielw]
      #50599 - Sat Aug 27 2005 04:35 AM

How much further south do you believe the Hurricane will drop before turning back North. And, do you think it will turn Clockwise or counter clockwise when it starts its turn?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Oops She Closed the Eyewall Off!! [Re: danielw]
      #50601 - Sat Aug 27 2005 04:38 AM

have we reached 'rapid intensification' yet?

45 mb drop in about 26 hours, and still going. eyeballing everything, sat and radar... I'm pegging a 280 motion the last couple of hours... another couple of hours and I'll be more than a wobble, it'll be the new heading. for the short term, it looks like the NHC has the direction right, (the intensity.... well, can't blame them for thinking it'd take longer to get together...)

if they have this one pegged on direction, give them all the credit in the world because this has been a difficult storm to project.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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5AM info [Re: Bloodstar]
      #50602 - Sat Aug 27 2005 04:51 AM

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

***
I wonder if they use 3 or 6 hour averages for motion.
-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Position [Re: Bloodstar]
      #50603 - Sat Aug 27 2005 04:59 AM

0553Z 24.23N./ 83.59W
0710Z 24.27N/ 84.07W
0823Z 24.23N/ 84.17W

North wobble was there. Back on 24.23N now.
West +0.18min or 0.3deg, over 2h13min.
using 65miles per degree that would be 19.5miles/ 2.2=8.9mph


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
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Re: 5AM info [Re: Bloodstar]
      #50604 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:02 AM

Quote:


I wonder if they use 3 or 6 hour averages for motion.
-Mark




I think they might use the average since the last advisory which would be 3 hours in this case but no reason other than that makes sense.

Is it just me, or did some of the computer models (not all, but a few) shift back eastward a tad? It brings them more in line with the other models but it's a disturbing trend for me.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 27 2005 05:11 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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NHC Models [Re: danielw]
      #50605 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:10 AM

Interesting note on the 06Z NHC models.
At 48 hrs they have the wind speed at 123kts/ 141mph.
Somewhere between 26.8-27.3/ 88.4-90.4 offshore

At 72 hours they are forecasting 124 kts-143mph.
Somewhere between 31.0-32.9/ 84.7-91.0 well inland

That would appear to indicate an increase in wind speed before landfall. For the winds to be 1 mph above the overwater speed. Am I reading that right?


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: NHC Models [Re: danielw]
      #50606 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:13 AM

Quote:

Interesting note on the 06Z NHC models.
At 48 hrs they have the wind speed at 123kts/ 141mph.
Somewhere between 26.8-27.3/ 88.4-90.4 offshore

At 72 hours they are forecasting 124 kts-143mph.
Somewhere between 31.0-32.9/ 84.7-91.0 well inland

That would appear to indicate an increase in wind speed before landfall. For the winds to be 1 mph above the overwater speed. Am I reading that right?




What I read is 120 knots shortly before landfall, then the next position is well inland at 75 knots.

Edit: latest IR image shows more southerly motion still.

Edit2: Looking at the last 2 water vapor images I see something coming from the north dropping down into south central Alabama - could this be the trough that will ultimately take Katrina away from its home in the hot GOM? Opinions anyone?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 27 2005 05:20 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
5 AM Discussion [Re: Hugh]
      #50607 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:20 AM

HURRICANE Katrina DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 (edited~danielw)
..KATRINA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...


THE EYE HAS BECOME CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN
GOES-12 INFRARED IMAGERY. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE INDICATES THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING... MOST RECENTLY MEASURED AT
945 MB. WHILE SUCH A LOW PRESSURE IS TYPICAL OF SOME CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANES... THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT YET
EXCEEDED 104 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 95 KT AT THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THE FALLING PRESSURE... AND Dvorak INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 100 TO 115 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE
INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING Katrina A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS GROWN IN SIZE... WHICH PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY THE MAXIMUM
WINDS HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE INITIAL
AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY...

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 27 2005 05:24 AM)


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