BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Fascinating archive.
thanks for posting it.
Can't image hearing that the storm heading toward you has 160mph winds and is expected to intensify.
190 mph at Kessler, unbelievable.
Grew up hearing stories from survivors, very interesting seeing the official advisories.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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first, in response to someone asking if the trough goes further down would it turn the storm more:
if the trough digs more, it would imply more amplified ridging upstream and a further west track. the trough would have to slip by to the north and erode the northwest side of the ridge to do that.. with a strong hurricane like on the ridge periphery pumping the ridge and trying to force itself northward, i doubt you'll see the track shift much to the right.
the symmetry on is excellent, but when you look at the inner core it's still kind of uneven. there's finally an eye trying to redefine itself on satellite, but the inner core bands are still uneven.. there isn't that circular eye and solid convective ring that is indicative of a strong four/five. i'm not certain that will develop that traditional structure, since thus far it's kept a sloppy inner core even with lessening, weak shear and a barometric pressure more often associated with a category 4.
invest 90L is moving faster and on a lower trajectory than i'd anticipated. it will be to the islands in three days if it keeps a similar pace and track... the upper air environment currently involves some weak easterly shear.. but that should lessen as it gets further west. that's gonna be lee. 97L seems to have given up on developing (shear has pretty much decoupled the low and the vorticity perturbation aloft driving that convective burst coincident with the system's track).
irwin is looking rather pathetic in the eastpac... and may be the last in the burst they've had over there for a while. i'm not sure but the atlantic may start revving down for a while... will look into this when a major hurricane isn't threatening NO/biloxi anymore.
HF 0426z28august
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:28 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here is the "buzzsaw" image refered to by Margie.
The 'teeth' are beginning to show.
Click on the attachment. above.
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Disaster Master
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 72
Loc: San Antonio G0! Spurs Go!
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Are there more recon flights going out tonight? Are they going out on a certain schedule?
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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AF300 is flying the storm right now. I'll have to check the POD for the next flight.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Ok going to bed but before i go i wanted to see 1 last Sat loop and the NOAA site still is showing the 03:45 loop anyone have a newer loop?
Edited by ralphfl (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:47 AM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Are there more recon flights going out tonight? Are they going out on a certain schedule?
Recon every three hours now.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Satellites are in the nightly eclipse for the next few hours. I'm not sure when they come back up.
Around 0800Z 4 AM EDT would be a good guess.
FLIGHT FOUR
A. 28/1200Z
B. NOAA9 1612A High Altitude Surveillance Flight
C. 28/0600Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE
A. 28/0900,1200,1500Z
B. AFXXX 1712A
C. 28/0630Z takeoff scheduled for 1 hour and 40 minutes from now.
D. 26.9N 85.7W
E. 28/0800Z TO 28/1530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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KimmieL
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
Loc: Baton Rouge, La
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Listening to talking to the NOLA weather station. They are saying that the 1 am advisory will probably have an increase in windspeed to 125 to 130 mph. Saying the storm is symetrical, the eye is now showing, and is actually pulling in storm from Texas into it. Interesting.
Kimmie
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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The forecasting today has been superb. About as good as you can get. Nearly all of the models are in alignment and the has been consistent in its track for about 24 hours. This is about as good as you can hope for 3 days out. My hat goes off to the forecasters. History will look kindly on the forecasting, but the decision to not order a mandatory evacuation... who knows. The shoes of an emergency manager are certainly difficult ones to fill. We shall see.
Anyways, being that the people of the Gulf Coast are facing a fearsome challenge, perhaps in the next day or so, the users of can spend a moment in prayer to the deity of their choosing, as many will need this helping hand. I am sure we will be amazed in the wake of the storm, wherever it hits, to hear of the miraculous tales that emerge and to see people banding together.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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"Satellites are in the nightly eclipse for the next few hours. I'm not sure when they come back up.
Around 0800Z 4 AM EDT would be a good guess.
FLIGHT FOUR
A. 28/1200Z
B. NOAA9 1612A High Altitude Surveillance Flight
C. 28/0600Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE
A. 28/0900,1200,1500Z
B. AFXXX 1712A
C. 28/0630Z takeoff scheduled for 1 hour and 40 minutes from now.
D. 26.9N 85.7W
E. 28/0800Z TO 28/1530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT "
Ok thanks for the info never paid att to it before guess ill see them when i get up.Hope when i wake up we dont have a cat 4 storm ill pray the people in N.O get spared since they don't want to evac it lets hope and pray it won't be too late or it moves elsewhere.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 28 2005 05:00 AM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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here's the best estimation I could find on what the Water Temps are. the more recent shots are too covered by clouds.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Just checking in here. It's pretty natural and even subconcious to statecast or citycast from time to time. Because of our various self-interests, we tend to focus on things that might indicate danger to us. It's probably a natural response. No, I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn *interruption*
That was a trip. All of the sudden this super heavy rainfall just passed through and I had to run back to my deck to get the carpet I had drying in the sun and breeze after my dog hurled on it this morning. Wonder if that was just an outter fringe element or part of the trof? Guess I should have been watching radar! Okay, I did. It came from the ENE so that's a rotating element. Damn, and the carpet was almost dry.*
Back to the post...
Okay so here I am sitting here wondering what I'm going to do. On the one hand, do I want to evacuate and miss the opportunity of a lifetime or do I want to play it safe? My thinking all along has been that the storm would be east of here. That needs to be caveated by the fact that I'd still see some tropical storm winds if went into Alabama. We had them on the lake sustained for 3 hours+ with out on Lake Pontchartrain and also with Opal* (*due to pressure gradient stuff with Opal). As mentioned earlier, I got 2 of my 3 kids out and up to Alexandria with my sister. My wayward middle child was out playing with his friends so he'll be heading up there tomorrow with my wife after she gets home from work and then also gets some sleep. I'm leaning about 70/30 against evacuating desipte the evidence to the contrary. I haven't seen true hurricane conditions since I was 1 year old in Betsy, so the passions of the heartstrings are being tugged against concious sanity that says if you don't get the hell out, YOU'RE GONNA DIE!
I've been watching the main trof since it was an upper low in Saskatchewan (or however you spell it). What I didn't count on was a south Atlantic high building in from the east. I knew there were two ridges of high pressure - 1) the upper high that had been spinning over the GC states for the last few days and the other one out there, and we knew that a trof would help amplify a weakness between the two ridges. But this is August, not October. It's not like a cold front is being dragged down to kick anything up northeast of me. It's quite the contrary situation (as amply explained by HankFrank above).
So for tonight, it's another night of chainsmoking and beer. I slept all of 2 hours last night (5ish to 7) and woke up realizing I had to evacuate because the condo/house/apt. I was living in had too many windows* and no place to hide (which is eerily similar to my own house).
I've got a dilemna on my hands for tomorrow. I'm thinking if the track shunts a bit west or stays roughly where it is and if is a Cat 4 with no letup in sight and the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin fueling the fire, I'm going to go. But if she's gonna be heading farther east, I'm probably going to stay.
One last tidbit - funny thing about the north and east scenarios (ones that I've been latched onto since Wed. morning). Latest plot from Old Sailor's verification chart shows is currently south and west of the forecast track. Sat tracking before I started this post showed a decided WNW motion. No, that's not NW, it's WNW. Wobbles will turn into trends which will turn into parabolic curves. Should cross or be approaching 88 by tomorrow afternoon, the city pays or possibly is doomed. If she's already heading NNW in the 86th parallel (or whatever they call Longitudes), then people in Alabama will probably be forgetting about .
I'm looking for at least tropical storm conditions between Grand Isle/Golden Meadow/Port Fourchon and Seaside, FL. Somewhere in that swath will be a 70 or 80 mile stretch of a combination of gusts > hurricane force and sustained hurricane winds. And nestled within that zone will be a life-altering event for thousands of people.
Good luck to everyone.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 99
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The satellite blackout period, and I'm assuming it is the same length every night, goes from 0400 UTC to 0600 UTC. I know from last night there was at least a 0615 satellite image, if not an 0600 image.
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belleami
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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Went through the huge surge from here, and I have been wondering, if this is a Cat 4 coming in, any idea of what the wave height, storm surge might be? Is there a way to find that?
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hang on!
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KimmieL
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
Loc: Baton Rouge, La
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Mayor of NO will be issuing a mandatory evacuation beginning in the morning. Head of personally just called him and told him that it was looking bad for NO and to get everybody out. Resources are on the way to the area now.
Kimmie
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I may be out of line here.
It's about time!! I can't believe they have waited so long!
With all of the technology we have and they are just kind of sitting there. Waiting on the turn that may not ever happen.
Where's an EXTROP?
4 out of 7 model tracks put New Orleans in the NE Quadrant. Do they know something I don't.
Steve I wish you the best. But I would seriously consider leaving for Alex with the wife and kids.
Metarie floods pretty bad sometimes. Especially around Moisant Airport.
edit: I see that the MS Gulf Coast Counties are in the same boat with New Orleans.
Voluntary evacuations of low lying areas and mobile homes. I think that will change drastically in the morning!
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 28 2005 05:17 AM)
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 365
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Hi everyone. Sorry if this post is in the wrong forum or repetitive of what others have posted - I just got power, and hence internet, for the first time in a little more than 2 days so I haven't kept up to speed with what's been posted.
I realize the second landfall of is a much more important issue, but if anyone hasn't gotten firsthand information re: the first landfall, my house was a few to ten miles SE of the eye, just south of South Miami, and after driving around to survey damage today I see that I was pretty much in, or close to, the worst swath damage-wise. Thursday was actually a very nice, balmy day, until I lost power at around 530, then things went downhill quickly. Had pretty typical strong TS to CAT 1 conditions for 5 or 6 hours - probably sustained winds around 70-75 mph, gusts into the 80's or low 90's - then another 3-6 hours of moderate TS conditions (and intermittent TS-strength squalls after that). Lots of trees, signs, portions of fences down; very little structural damage - shingles off here and there, and some problems caused by falling trees, but not structural damage caused purely by the wind, as opposed to by impacts from objects carried by the wind. Plenty of impassable roads, and very few businesses & homes in the area had power this afternoon. (Some odd experiences with trying to shop: e.g., CVS letting in 1 customer at a time; giving me a cart, a light, and a pen to write down the prices of things I picked out; wandering through the dark store alone, with 4 employees up front and a line of people outside waiting for me to finish my trek through the store; only cash transactions everywhere, with calculators and wads of bills - no change provided - the norm.) Hot as anything, of course, although we (unfortunately) benefited from 's expansion today with a reprieve from from the heat because of the re-arrival of her outer clouds/bands this evening.
Anyway, power is back in my neighborhood, and I believe FPL (with the much-appreciated help of out-of-state companies, including many employees from N.C.) is aiming to restore 90% of Miami-Dade residents' power by Tuesday and 100% by Friday.
What amazed me the most about this storm was how most of the local mets downplayed it even into Thursday evening, despite the fact we were very much within the hurricane warning area (I heard news quotes such as "This is a tropical storm and we get plenty of those in South Florida, so there's no need to prepare for this one," and "This isn't going to be more than a minor rain event for us" as late as Thursday afternoon), how shocked many residents seem to be by the storm we got (which was almost exactly the stoorm that was predicted, or at least the one we were told we had a decent chance of getting; even the NWS forecast for our area on Thursday and Friday predicted up to 85 mph winds, which was close); and how many locals claim this was stronger than a CAT 1 when it passed through S. Fla. (Despite all the downed trees and power lines, the minimal structural damage certainly tells the story of a minimal CAT 1.)
For me, it's yet another lesson that even in Miami, where we are no strangers to tropical systems, no matter how many times we go through this drill, no matter how well the forecasts a storm and how explicit the 's warnings are, and no matter how recently we seem to have experienced similar "suprises" that really were right in line with the 's forecasts (e.g., Irene 1999), for some reason the message does not make it to, or sufficiently effect, a large portion of the public. I suppose this is a problem the continually deals with. Is it a problem of translation when interpreted through local mets? People's need to have concrete answers (will it hit or not?) when no such answers can be given?
Whatever factors are going into those issues, nobody seems to have been able to figure them out, least of all me.
Anyway, after 2 sweaty, uncomfortable days, my wife, baby, and I are immensely enjoying the a/c.
I wish everyone in 's path luck. We got just a taste, and I hope you all evacuate so you don't experience the real deal.
-Brad
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/272350.shtml
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Steve, I've gotta suggest that you get out of there tomorrow with the others. This thing may hook back a little to the right at landfall, as some of these storms tend to do, but it may likely go a bit further west initially than predicted as well. It's already past 86W and well on its way to 87W...this thing means business and I know you'd rather stick around, but there will be other storms to ride through down the line that won't pose the danger that this one does and the thrill of going through something like this would seriously (and quickly) be outweighed by the repercussions to come shortly thereafter. Things look more ominous than when we talked earlier and I've really gotta suggest that you strongly consider leaving tomorrow.
-Clark
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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