Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
Katrina is starting to enter the area of deep warm water to the west of her, this afternoon, and will be travelling over it throughout the evening.
Yeah, and the warmest water in the gulf will be beneath it just before landfall:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05082712/10.html
Scroll down to the bottom on the link to see water temps. Don't pay attention to the storm strength parts of that graphic - isn't good at forcasting tropical system intensity at all - it just doesn't have the resolution. I picked becuase it was the newest of the graphics on that site, and shows a path very close to the one the is predicting.
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
The northward motion is even MORE evident on that imagery!
Can't be the eye Hugh  - know why? The eye is 40NMs wide. What you're seeing is only about 5-10NMs.
Oh well, we'll never agree on this one. No sense arguing it for either of us  - only one solution: wait for the next recon! Should be one in about 2 hours I think, but they haven't posted tomorrow's schedule yet on 's website.
|
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
|
|
I only wish I saw some of these things you guys see. This stands to be the worst disaster in history. Possibly not in dollars, because things in Miami (Andrew) are more expensive than here, but the ramifacations of the current forecast track at the current forecast intensity for this city is catastrophic.
I am getting my stuff together for a early Sunday AM getaway. Hopefully one of these things you guys see comes to fruition, if y'all want it y'all can have it.
--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
|
RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
|
|
In preparing for evacuation, one tool you can use if you are heading towards Florida is the Florida Department of Transportation interactive traffic information website that can show you traffic flow.
http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/
For instance, if you were to be heading East on I-10 from Pensacola 3:00 this afternoon, you would find the average speed to be 71 mph and more vehicles per hour than ever recorded historically.
|
TheElNino
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 9
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Just heard from the news reports that many of the oil rigs in the central and eastern Gulf are evacuating their workers from the platforms today. Also Chevron Texaco has their largest refinery at Pascagoula (just west of Mobile), it's one of the top ten largest in the U.S., so if it takes a direct hit from (which I think will be at least a strong Cat 4) the whole country may be impacted by a spike in gas prices.
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
it may just be my eyes, but i think the is over, or nearing the end and has moved the center a little more north than forecasted.... i haven't seen a recon report lately..... but i think the moved the center north of forecasted track some.... this could just be a wobble though... i noticed in last hour new convection is flaring up on the SW side of what i think is the center...
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
it may just be my eyes, but i think the is over, or nearing the end and has moved the center a little more north than forecasted.... i haven't seen a recon report lately..... but i think the moved the center north of forecasted track some.... this could just be a wobble though... i noticed in last hour new convection is flaring up on the SW side of what i think is the center...
On the last visible image there is also a "deepening" if you will (a depression in the clouds) near where the new eye appears to be forming, which is north of the old eye. You can even begin to see a "stadium effect" again, which is scary. Hopefully it is just a wobble - hurricanes DO wobble.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
|
|
Quote:
For instance, if you were to be heading East on I-10 from Pensacola 3:00 this afternoon, you would find the average speed to be 71 mph and more vehicles per hour than ever recorded historically.
incorrect.
more vehicles than the Historical Average
-- I stand corrected.. thank you!
--------------------
Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sat Aug 27 2005 10:14 PM)
|
Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
|
|
I don't see the path for this thing to go significantly eastward (e.g. a loopback towards the FL peninsula - or really anything much east of Mobile.)
I just went through the expected pattern evolution for the next 48 hours, looking at the expected features over the US, in conjunction with the 4pmCDT advisory. Right now you can see the trough very clearly on the WV loop, along with the weakness on the tail end of it as it dives southward.
(I use the Unisys links for GOES, which can be had at http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_se_loop-12.html - from that link you can select WV, IR, Vis, which bird and which view, looped or single image. All in one place, very nice...)
Forecast is for that trough to lift out to the NE over the next 36 hours, leaving a weakness ahead of a second feature that is moving in across roughly the TX/OK boundary aproaching from the west. That gap looks to be roughly aligned right over the north of the system in 48 hours - right about when the forecast is for landfall. Ths is a clear weakness in the overall pattern and I see no reason for not to move into the gap, and then be forced NNE as the trailing feature moves east.
For the storm to move to the NE, the trough currently over Tennessee would have to dive further south than forecast and fail to lift out to the NE over the next 36 hours. If that was to occur then there would be a gradient that would lift to the NE - which is the scenario that some here are positing.
But - the northeast edge of that trough is already starting to fold up and back - clearly visible on the WV loop. For the trough to continue to hold its strength through the forecast period with that sort of presentation would be pretty odd at this time of year - you might see that in November, but not in August.
I'm not buying it. The high that was feeding dry air into the core from the north is basically off the table, which is why you're seeing the north and northeast quadrants explode. They were being inhibited by this inflow, and its gone. The relaxing of that influence is also what is picked up by the models in allowing the movement to the NW and North.
I buy the models at this point, absent some truly extraordinary changes in the overall pattern in the next 24 hours. If anything I'm seeing a bit east of the 's track, but not by much - and probably not terribly material in terms of those who are "under the gun."
In short, the cone looks good to me.... but with this system being as large as it is, the exact center isn't the issue - if you're within 100nm you're going to get some NASTY weather, especially to the east.
Edited by Genesis (Sat Aug 27 2005 06:29 PM)
|
gavsie
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 18
Loc: Seminole Fl
|
|
I have to agree a bit. I am not a weather expert by any means however, I just took a Met. Class and was wondering the same thing myself. I was looking for paths for Hurricane Elana who did something similar. Well, she stalled until she was able to find a way in. I know she was closer to the gulf coast but she was out in Gulf for several days from what I remember of it(I was eight at the time so, I don't remember alot). It just seems to me when you look at all the factors steering this storm(or not steering right now) she may make more of a turn than expected. I would hope that she doesn't because that brings it closer to me.
|
pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
|
|
The question is where is the break in the ridge going to develope? I think there is a definate nw or even NNW component now, and it looks like has found the road it wants to take. We will not know until recon confirms, but as I said earlier, the west side of the circulation is STILL visible on Key West Radar....if this trend continues, look for extension of watches to the east.. keep your eyes open Mobile
--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
|
nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
|
|
is it me or is this thing stalling? looks like its stalling and spinning around and around. from the last frame on the floater. 
|
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
|
|
The problem is that the storm has just completed an EWRC and it's doing things in it's structure that makes it look like it moving in different directions. It will be interesting to see what happens now that the system is leveling off. There is some hint of a northward component to the system, but it's too hard to tell right now if it's a new motion or the internal structure of the system changing.
--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/288.jpg
don't think she will show her full eye today.... i think she tried last night and somewhat this morning...
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
|
|
Quote:
is it me or is this thing stalling? looks like its stalling and spinning around and around. from the last frame on the floater.
Until that storm passes 27.34 N, I don't even want to hear that.
|
KimmieL
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 26
Loc: Baton Rouge, La
|
|
Listening to the radio out of NOLA. They were interviewing someone from . They said that there has not been a turn to the north, no more southern movement, going west for now. Contra Flow is now in operation and there is a bottleneck on I-10 and I-55 seems to be flowing better right now.
Kimmie
|
mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
|
|
Part of the report from the University of South Alabama..........
Powerful is now moving slightly north of due west and will continue to curve more toward the northwest over the next 24 hours. The storm, although temporarily re-organizing its eyewall structure, will grow stronger over the weekend and a poses a grave threat to the north-central Gulf Coast by Monday.
Hurricane is presently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle where the original eyewall becomes surrounded by a newly developing eyewall farther out from the center. Over a period of 12-24 hours, the inner eyewall dissipates and the storm temporarily weakens. However, the outer eyewall then becomes dominant and begins a contraction process which causes the eye to shrink and the storm then grows stronger. Right now, the inner eyewall of is dissipating and the storm is temporarily weakening; however a new outer eyewall is forming which will eventually begin to contract toward the center of the storm, leading to another round of significant intensification by tonight or early Sunday. It is during this next intensification round that will possibly reach Category 5 strength.
By Sunday, larger-scale weather systems in the central United States will force a weakening of the eastern U.S. high pressure ridge, which will ultimately turn northward... toward extreme Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and possibly southwest Alabama. It appears that will arrive on the coast of Louisiana late Monday morning and on the Mississippi coast Monday afternoon before progressing inland through the state of Mississippi with serious effects eastward into western Alabama.
All interests in New Orleans need to prepare for the worst. There is also the possibility that could turn toward the north-northeast just prior to landfall as it interacts with a jet stream disturbance over the central U.S.; in this event, the core of the storm may impact as far east as the Mobile area.
Katrina is expected to be a category 4 storm at landfall. It is possible that may reach category 5 intensity over the Gulf of Mexico loop current by Sunday before probably weakening back to a category 4 by landfall.
Because of the unique geography of the LA/MS area, an intense storm approaching SE Louisiana from the south will pile huge amounts of water into Lake Pontchartrain and the western portions of the Mississippi Sound, thereby producing storm surge elevations higher than they would otherwise be along a straight coastline. Storm surge heights could reach 18-20 feet in this region, should move inland near or just to the east of New Orleans as a category 4 storm.
|
pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
|
|
This storm reminds me of ..it is obvious that is really getting strong because there is convection firing all around the center, but no clear visible eye..opal was just like that, even when winds hit 150mph before weakening, no clear eye, and in a similiar location
--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
|
Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
|
|
Notice how the is elongating from the south to north. I sense that some northward motion is imminent. The deepest convection shown on the loop in grey is not the center. I have been looking at this storm six different ways during past few hours, and the center does appear a bit further north than previously. On visibles it is the "nipple" that is right in the center of the deepest banding. This feature is definitely north of the heavier banding we saw earlier this afternoon, when it was difficult to discern the center. I don't know for sure, let's see what the recon finds. Yes, 90L is getting better organized as it continues west, and should be classified soon.
|
Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
|
|
Steve, judging by the latest vortex message, it does appear to be heading north of west now. Will have to wait to see if this is temporary or a more permanent move.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
