MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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2AM Update
Katrina is now a category 4 hurricane with winds of 145mph. The official forecast now brings it in as a 150mph hurricane within the next 36-48hr; intensity fluctuations may result in the intensity being slightly higher or lower and there is the serious potential for this to make landfall as a category 5 hurricane, just the fourth such landfalling storm in recorded US history.
Note that many in the SE US can keep track of the situation by tuning in to AM 870 (WWL) out of New Orleans this evening. Those in the impact zone can use it to find out the latest information on the storm and evacuation routes as they head out of town, while those out of the area can use it to follow how the region is preparing for the storm.
10:45PM
A Hurricane Warning is now up between Morgan City, LA and the FL/Alabama Border. The forecast track remains very similar to the last one, crossing over the Southeastern coast of Louisiana.
Anyone in the warning area needs to prepare for this storm.
This is not another storm like and is instead more akin to some of the memorable hurricanes of our generation.
Clark Evans has more in his blog, accessible below or in the "Met Blogs" section of the page.
Presentation on Satellite shows a very symettrical storm, the pressure has lowered, and T-Numbers support a strengthening system. It is still forecast to make landfall as a Category 4 storm.
For discussion on other developing Atlantic Systems (90L) go to this link.
(We and are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)
Original Update
The New Orleans area and nearby is the most likely area for to make landfall.
It is forecast to make landfall near New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane, and the National Hurricane Center mentions the possibility of a Category 5.
The track has not changed much actually a little west of the prior track. All areas within the cone need to continue to watch the storm.
The storm has maintained Category 3 status all day, as it was going through an eyewall replacement cycle that kept it there or just weaker all day. As the night rolls on it has another chance to strengthen.
Event Related Links
General Links
Report conditions in your area/read other's reports at this link (registration not required).
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East
Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL,
Walton County, FL,
Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA)
http://www.msema.org/index.htm
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management
Video/Audio Links
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
New Orleans Webcams
New Orleans Traffic Cams
Television/Radio
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans)
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com Storm Chasing
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile Alabama
Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans
-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas let us know!
Katrina
 
Google Map plot of
Visible Floater Satellite of
Water Vapor Floater of
Visible Satellite Floater of with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of
Spaghetti Model Plot of from Colorado State
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
New Orleans, LA Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, New Orleans, Mobile
Invest 97L
NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L
Invest 90L
Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 28 2005 06:17 AM)
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Disaster Master
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Antonio G0! Spurs Go!
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Looks like the eye wall is under construction. Usually means its going to get stronger. Spoke with my brother in law in NO. He said that I-10 is packed. People are using the shoulder as a 5th lane. North through Hammond is even worse. Also banks are going to be open late tonight . Gas is almost impossible to find.
The up side to this is that people are getting out.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 272105
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/20:54:10Z
B. 24 deg 38 min N
085 deg 28 min W
C. 700 mb 2646 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 171 deg 119 kt
G. 103 deg 030 nm
H. EXTRAP 949 mb
I. 12 C/ 2416 m
J. 15 C/ 3052 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. RAGGED
M. C40
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX12A 01 OB 10
MAX FL WIND 119 KT E QUAD 19:13:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
up and down......still in a , but should be nearing end of it...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Vortex shows not much movement during the . Not sure if that will translate into a resumption west or west north west or the beginnings of another track. Of interest is the attachment which appears courtesy of wxman57 (a professional meterologist in Houston who is a frequent s2k poster). Enjoy or not.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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I think the lack of movement can be confirmed in that the eye is still visible on Key West radar, Though the presentation is poor and telling a direction of movement not accurate, you can still see both sides of the circulation..if the west movement had continued in the last hour, thr west eyewall would be out of range, but it continues to be visible and stationary, I feel confirming the IR and Vis sats. I know that systems do these temp stalls, but movement has been consistent up until now...Any thoughts?
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Vortex shows not much movement during the . Not sure if that will translate into a resumption west or west north west or the beginnings of another track. Of interest is the attachment which appears courtesy of wxman57 (a professional meterologist in Houston who is a frequent s2k poster). Enjoy or not.
Steve
I'm getting very concerned. Looking at the visible loop, and overlaying the forecast positions, the new eye appears to be forming too far north to continue a westward motion. The entire central dense overcast seems shifted northward from the forecast position (but not west/east of it). Probably a wobble but enough of one to scare me right now.
ETA thoughts in response to Pcola: Yeah... my thoughts would be something along the lines of OH ****! 
Let me clarify that... it DOES appear to me on visible and IR sat that is moving, at least in terms of the eye location... moving north or NNW or *maybe* NW. But as mets will say, we can pay much attention to wobbles.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 27 2005 09:29 PM)
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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It also appears to me that the eyewall replacement is definitely more north. I've said all along I feel the track is too far west. I wish this thing would just go away.
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KimmieL
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Baton Rouge, La
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Steve, wow! What is the time of this forecast, was it based on the 5 pm info? Is Jason updating this regularly? I am certainly glad that I have completed my hurricane preps.
Kimmie
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
It also appears to me that the eyewall replacement is definitely more north. I've said all along I feel the track is too far west. I wish this thing would just go away.
Me too in both cases, but I *was* actually starting to BELIEVE the computer models and the track that it would hit just west of N.O. 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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One of the neat features of the CMISS floater graphic is it doesn't move the storm but instead moves the land outlines while keeping the storm's center centered.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/archive/javanh2.html
If you watch the land move, the system is still clearly moving west with a slight northward movement. IR and Visible are very misleading on their own right now becuase the eye has filled in completely. Expect that to change in a few hours as the (eyewall replacement cycle) finishes.
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I think something people are ignoring about the potential result of the is that the new eyewall is at 40 NMs now (based on Recon posted by StormHunter). That is a VERY large eye. With this large eye pressure is already at 945mb. 945mb is the max pressure usually associated with Category 3 storms. Now I realize the wind isn't yet Category 3, but wind takes time to catch up with pressure.
The problem begins when you look at what shrinking eyes do as they consolidate. They drop the presure of the system. Think of it as a valve. You have a certain amount of air that must get through it every minute. If you make it smaller, the air will flow faster. That is what happens with a shrinking eye, and the result is lower pressure becuase the air is moving faster.
With a central pressure already at 945mb, any lessening of the presure brings it easily into Category 4 range - the winds will just have more catching up to do, and expect the winds to catch up. Becuase of the size of the new eye, pressures below 920mb are not impossible when it shrinks. We need to watch this carefully.
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Aug 27 2005 09:38 PM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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That's mostly 18Z and 12Z runs. It's not Jason, he has another alias over there. This met is from Houston.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Evans
Registered User
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what about the wxman57 from Houston. Where do I see her Post?
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jr928
Weather Guru
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I always err with the bc they hit it 90% of the time, but it sure looks like al/fl border . I think it's history that makes our eyes lean that way. how deep and how fast is the trough moving? are there any models that have shifted to support the naked eye?
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
If you watch the land move, the system is still clearly moving west with a slight northward movement. IR and Visible are very misleading on their own right now becuase the eye has filled in completely. Expect that to change in a few hours as the (eyewall replacement cycle) finishes.
Not at the end. If you look carefully the eye is NOT centered on the image at the end of the loop, it's moved up!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Local Met. in S. FL. thinks it could loop back more eastward, see below, anyone agree?
Katrina struggling to go anywhere except into least resistance. We must be careful as in cases where when we finally get a wide opening between the high over the western Central Gulf retrograding and a smaller over the Southwest Atlantic. In most cases as I looked at the old Eastern Airlines Aeronautics text book (graphical charts of movement of tropical cyclones movement of tropical cyclones section) the tendency for these storms is to move with the contour ribbon usually looking at the closely packed countours north of 35 North, in essence what this means is to look at what is going on over the 35 north latitude (My input to that also is there a trough? motion of air masses on water vapor loop??).
We can get a better picture using the water vapor loop motion of where the dry areas are going too which hurricanes will try to avoid. For now I see plenty of dry air pushing down toward and this is keeping on a quasistationary position in fact somewhat farther southwest and south of runs from yesterday. I would keep a close watch on her she can still move eventually to the right if a trough or even the southwesterlies push down south of 35 north latititude.
There have been several major hurricanes that just sat there for days in the Gulf until a clear opening was present this means void of any dry boundaries or high pressure areas blocking it. If she moves farther southwest to South I would worry about a loop and change of direction when that happens the picture is completely different then and meanwhile the synpotic weather patterns are progessing along over the North American continent...remember we are getting already into the transistion to the fall upper air pattern over the U.S. Any major trough or impulse digging southeastward into the United States could help to push southwesterlies further south and east and finally break throug and capture ...along with any high to the east over the Atlantic that would modify the track a little (orientation of western most contour or winds from any subtropical high from the Southwest Atlantic.
Right now you have a upper ridge/high line axis Northeast and Southwest that seperates the easterlies and the westerlies..in the Central Gulf area.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Not at the end. If you look carefully the eye is NOT centered on the image at the end of the loop, it's moved up!
Actually, it hasn't. What is happening is the eye has become completely obscured. You're looking at a swirl of clouds over the eye that is rotating around the actual eye (almost on top of it actually). The move "north" is simply the illusion caused by the counter-clockwise rotation of central cloud the spiral.
Its hard to tell on the a storm-centered IR image, but the Visible shows it well. You can see the cloud rotating around a central point. If you use this visible CMISS link you will see what I'm talking about.
EDIT: Bad reference graphic. Fixed for the Visual one which I was talking about this time 
Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Aug 27 2005 09:48 PM)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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nope, don't agree at all. why would move back through a building ridge? there's nothing to make that happen... the weakness it should sense will be north of it soon, with a building ridge to the east also forcing it north. it's more likely to go to texas than it is to head back the florida peninsula, with that ridge there.
HF 2148z27august
by the way, the 5pm twd indicates that 90L is developing. the early runs have it moving to near the NE caribbean in 4-5 days... some taking it up more to the north. we'll have to see how much of a wake 97L leaves.. 97L they're no longer paying much attention to. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 27 2005 09:52 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Katrina is starting to enter the area of deep warm water to the west of her, this afternoon, and will be travelling over it throughout the evening.
Additional areas of warm water lay under the projected curved path to just south of LA.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Its hard to tell on the a storm-centered IR image, but the Visible shows it well. You can see the cloud rotating around a central point. If you use this visible CMISS link you will see what I'm talking about.
EDIT: Bad reference graphic. Fixed for the Visual one which I was talking about this time
The northward motion is even MORE evident on that imagery!
hugh, two things. read the site rules about posting short, uninformative, one line stuff. if it looks like it belongs in a chat room, it doesn't belong here. also want to note that whenever a hurricane goes through an , especially when it's not moving quickly, the process usually jars it around. i wouldn't make much of that north jog you're seeing. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 27 2005 09:54 PM)
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Panhandle
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Can you give us a reference map for those ridges?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ look at the and 500mb plots. they show the height rises over florida, and the trough swinging down into the mississippi valley. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 27 2005 09:57 PM)
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