Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Thanks Ron..though I am on the Gulf Breze Peninsule..I am on the highest ground here..if you call 27ft high....I think I will put the tracks and models away, and just follow the visible and IR images...but I wanted to hear Dr Lyons reasoning for the NNE turn near landfall, and would that be landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi or farther north..I have see 2 storms hit the Boothville area of LA but by going noth they re-emerge over water in the Mississippi sound for several more hours... I wish he had made that a little clearer
Look at what did. That's what he's talking about, I believe. High ground in Gulf Breeze is an oxymoron. You'd be wise to find higher ground. What kind of damage did do to you?
The models are out the window at this point. will do what she wants to do, and we will be able to watch it on IR/WV/VIS loops from here on in until power goes out in the areas effected (whereever those will be).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
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It looks like, ever so slightly, the dry air is affecting the intensity a bit, at least according to the water vapor loop. Any decrease can only be a help. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Still no madatory evacs in NO or Biloxi according to ..Superdome for special needs/nowhere to go cases...going to be devestating wherever she goes but especially if NO...good to see people deciding on their own to go though...as someone who foolishly stayed for Andrew I can honestly say leaving is the best thing to do.
Will the Superdome survive? What is the elevation at the Superdome? I don't mean to panic people but I personally would not want to be that close to the water.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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The 06Z model has shifted ever so slightly to the east with a landfall at Biloxi. There is a glimmer of good news according to this model - it is weakening the storm from 147 kts down to 117 kts as it approaches landfall. I don't know what factors are influencing this projected weakening, perhaps some shear as the projected path curves N-NE from the mouth of the Miss River. P'Cola, this model projects CAT 2 force winds at your location.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
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RJB
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jr928
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
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2 models is not enough to start inching east. 2 models in every storm go east or west.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Well what a nice picture to wake up to.I guess we board today.I was ready to ride a 100-115 mph winds done it before in this house. A possible 140-160 I don't think so I see where the models are picking the MS GC again a dreaded NE turn.All I could say is S&%#.The same thing happened in Georges N.O.,N.O. etc.I have not seen a single post by Frank P here or at S2K.I will go by and see him and compare notes in a couple of hrs.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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The Superdome is 18 feet above sea level and was engineered to handle winds near 200 mph. I'd hate to think that it might get tested.
Evacuation of last resort indeed...
All of our SE LA readers have left already, right? I remember Terra doing a very smart thing and leaving early this AM, but I seem to remember Steve(?) considering staying. I hope he reconsidered. I'm an extraordinarily brave person (read also a touch foolish) and if I were within 100 miles of Ms. 's anticipated landfall, I'd have been boarded and gone early this morning. There's nothing suggesting abatement of this truly massive storm.
What good is the "thrill of a lifetime" if it is what defines your lifespan?
Stay safe people.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Remember ,Ivan and Cindy all went NE at landfallby about 50-75 miles.
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TDW
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL
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I'm on my way to Church before I board up for the storm. I don't imagine that there will be many students in my Sunday School class, though.
It may be appropriate that we are to discuss Job today. A lot of bad things can happen to good people. Let's hope everyone stays safe.
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"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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173mph by 8PM
174mph by 8AM Monday.
link
I wonder what the other intensity models are showing?
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Remember ,Ivan and Cindy all went NE at landfallby about 50-75 miles.
I remember, I remember.... unfortunately. Lyons appears to be one of the few experts talking about this possibility. For the people of N.O. this would be a blessing but for the people in AL/FL it would be a death sentence for those who have not prepared because they were told the storm was hitting N.O. EVERYONE - EVERY SINGLE PERSON near the coast from western LA to Apalachicola should be prepared.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
173mph by 8PM
174mph by 8AM Monday.
link
I wonder what the other intensity models are showing?
Uh...wow.
The landfall is expected to be sometime Monday morning, and the ships model (according to your link) is showing Category 5 winds continuing through 8pm Monday, 12 hours or so after landfall. Unreal!
Just a note: Ships is bad at predicting winds after landfall, so take that estimate with a grain of salt.
Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Aug 28 2005 01:28 PM)
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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jr928
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
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I think the panic for a large east turn should be over. every met in fla won't be wrong. direct hit and 75 either side is not pensacola. Let's stay the course with and follow the current path not the oh what if path.
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
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That is really odd. I think that somebody is making a bad call in not ordering evacuations for NO. Here we are looking at one of the most dangerous weather features of our time and nobody is ordering evacuations. I know the path is uncertain, but still... I was looking at photos of Camille and from the looks of it, it doesn't look like much of anything within 2 miles of the coast will survive. My thoughts and prayers are with everybody that is in the path of the storm. As for now it looks like the Tampa Bay area has dodged yet another bullet.
Be safe
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Matt
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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They just posted a 9:14 am vortex message over at (the 8am one was an Air Force plane, so it never showed up):
(my notes in italic)
000
URNT12 KNHC 281314
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/12:57:40Z
B. 25 deg 50 min N
087 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2308 m
D. 80 kt
E. 132 deg 073 nm
F. 203 deg 145 kt
G. 118 deg 018 nm
H. 908 mb
I. 10 C/ 3056 m
J. 26 C/ 3056 m
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C22 [that's circular 22NM radius]
N. 12345/ 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1712A OB 16
MAX FL WIND 153 KT NE QUAD 10:58:50 Z
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
173mph by 8PM
174mph by 8AM Monday.
link
I wonder what the other intensity models are showing?
Intensity models are notoriously inaccurate. It could potentially hit 180-190+, too. I suspect it will not stay cat 5 for 48+ hours though... at least I hope, but Louisiana isn't exactly the Rocky Mountains. Look at what the Everglades did to - pretty much made her mad and out to seek revenge.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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jr928
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
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good point,
winds could last well across ponchatrain into so ms as you point out the Rockies aren't quite evident down here
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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From CNN online: one paragraph about the Cat 5 intensity, followed with this second paragraph:
"The storm is expected to make landfall Monday morning in southeastern Louisiana or southwest Mississippi."
Do you think may have let LA and MS know that the track may be shifted to the right a bit?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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