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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH - TD#13 Forms East of Caribbean Islands
      #51453 - Sun Aug 28 2005 10:56 AM

5pm Update
Winds with Katrina have fallen slightly, from 150kt/172.5mph to 145kt/166.75mph. This in no way diminishes the threat associated with the storm and, given the peak in flight level winds this morning, more likely represents a leveling off of intensity for the time being.

4:00pm Update
Tropical Depression #13 has formed in the Atlantic east of the islands. More to come later about that.

2:30pm Update
Recon reports that the pressure has fallen again, this time to 902mb. Winds still remain near 150kt/175mph at the surface, however, given maximum flight level winds remaining steady around 160kt. Nevertheless, Katrina continues to maintain itself as a strong category 5 hurricane as it approaches landall, now expected within 24hr.




(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)

Original Update
The crew from the latest recon flight states "Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 166 KTS OUTBOUND NE Quadrant at 1422Z. Perfect stadium effect and textboox radar depiction of eyewall."



The chat link is open for the event.

10:50AM
Hurricane Katrina is now up to 175MPH Maximum Sustained winds.

If you are near the coast and in the cone for Katrina YOU SHOULD NOT BE LOOKING AT THIS PAGE - prepare and evacuate if necessary

10:30AM
Winds with Katrina are now estimated at 175mph with gusts well over 200mph. Mayor Nugin of New Orleans has issued the city's first ever mandatory full scale evacution. If you are along the coast in any of the hurricane warning areas, I'd recommend evacuation, follow the recommendations of local officials in regards to these. If you do not evacuate, you are seriously endangering your life -- there's no other way to put it right now.



SUNDAY - 8:30AM UPDATE
With central pressure now at 908MB and sustained winds of 160MPH, Katrina is now a powerful Category V Hurricane. As with any strong hurricane, fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next 24 hours as the storm moves northwest and north toward the Louisiana/Mississippi border area, but the bottom line is that Katrina is a dangerous hurricane that will cause extensive to catastrophic damage when she makes landfall along the north central Gulf coast.



Significant track changes are less likely as the window of time for those changes narrows - the best advise is to monitor the latest track forecasts from NHC. Tropical storm or hurricane force winds will cover a large area of the northern Gulf coast (probably all of it), and near the center of the storm hurricane force winds will extend well inland from the coast for at least 12 to 18 hours after landfall. The storm is expected to move due north and eventually north northeast after landfall. Residents in the Hurricane Warning area are urged to take immediate protective action.
ED

For discussion on other developing Atlantic Systems (90L) go to this link.

Event Related Links
General Links
Report Katrina conditions in your area/read other's reports at this link (registration not required).

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Graphic showing elevations of New Orleans

Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management

Video/Audio Links
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
New Orleans Webcams
French Quarter Cam
New Orleans Traffic Cams

Flhurricane/Joseph Johnston Mobile Cam

Television/Radio
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans)
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
WTOK 11 / Missippii Alabama ABC Affiliate -- Jason Kelly is assisting Operations Here
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile

Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans

-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!

Katrina

Google Map plot of Katrina
Hurricane Camille and Hurricane Katrina plotted on a google map

Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Water Vapor Floater of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Spaghetti Model Plot of Katrina from Colorado State

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
New Orleans, LA Long Range Radar

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, New Orleans, Mobile

TD#13

Animated model plots of TD#13

Invest 91L


Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:48 PM)


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: MikeC]
      #51458 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:03 AM

They just said that I10 is gridlocked. A situation like this just makes you feel sick. I feel so bad for everybody that will be affected by this storm.

The first rain band will affect NO in 1-2 hrs according to NWS

--------------------
Matt

Edited by chase 22 (Sun Aug 28 2005 11:08 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: MikeC]
      #51459 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:03 AM

URNT11 KNHC 281448
97779 14434 10268 88119 30400 11083 0909/ /3882
RMK AF302 1712A Katrina OB 25
50 NM NORTH OF CENTER. INBOUND


recon on there way in towards center....wonder if they will find any higher winds?..... i sure hope they have there cameras with them on this flight!!!!
Katrina should be retired and go down in history most likely now!!!!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51460 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:06 AM

Well, once again, the other shoe drops. The same new wording we saw in the news at 9am this morning. Actually, I like the way they decided to do this. From the 10am discussion:

"Recalling that the average NHC 24-hour
track forecast error is about 80 N mi...the actual landfall point
could still be anywhere from southeastern Louisiana to the
Mississippi coast. Also...we must continue to stress that the
hurricane is not just a point on the map...because destructive
winds...torrential rains...storm surge...and dangerous waves extend
well away from the eye. It is impossible to specify which County
or Parish will experience the worst weather."

What else could they do given the situation and forecasting limitations? NHC conservatively will always stay with the previous forecast unless there is some specific rationale to change it. But here they are saying the forecast is only as good as it is, and for a storm like this, the forecast isn't really good enough - not anyone's fault.

So anyone anywhere near can expect they might possibly see the worst, not just NO now. But notice the error all goes to the EAST of the original predicted track, none to the west (lucky you, Abbeville). So look for a curve more to the NE closer to landfall.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Aug 28 2005 11:08 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51461 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:08 AM

Quote:

URNT11 KNHC 281448
97779 14434 10268 88119 30400 11083 0909/ /3882
RMK AF302 1712A Katrina OB 25
50 NM NORTH OF CENTER. INBOUND
recon on there way in towards center....wonder if they will find any higher winds?..... i sure hope they have there cameras with them on this flight!!!!
Katrina should be retired and go down in history most likely now!!!!




No question about that. It would likely have been retired simply from the devastation in the S. Florida area. Looking at the latest IR imagery... I see no reason to believe the winds will go higher than 175-180. In fact it might be looking a little ragged in comparison to an hour ago, so they might drop to 160-170. But I was floored by the 175 so soon, so it might be higher than I'm thinking.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: MikeC]
      #51462 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:09 AM

CNN said that this hurricane is know stronger than camille it will do more or about the same. Well the speed say it all 175 MPH gust to 215 this is unbelivible.

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Margie]
      #51463 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:12 AM

Margie..that's a given & what others have been trying to stress...she's a huge powerful storm & regardless of where the bullseye is the effects will be far reaching...not just coastal areas either...inland as well.

I think those who live along areas that have experienced these things first hand are aware of this...it's just getting the point to others that just because landfall might a little more to east or west doesn't really matter in the greater scheme of things.

I mean according to maps they've been showing on TWC Pcola can expect 20-25 ft surge & that's with having lanfall in LA.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
ramifications [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51466 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:15 AM

this hurricane has the potential to impact our economy like none before it. we may lose a major port/trade/distribution center for the south and central part of the county tomorrow... Katrina is probably going to shut it down. the city is likely going to be unlivable for some time... sizable refugee problem. cities like biloxi and gulfport will likely experience significant damage as well. this hurricane will probably lap Andrew and set the bar a great deal higher.
offshore oil production is going to be way down as well... we may lose a platform or two. new orleans is a major refining center as well... so get ready for $3 a gallon gas.. it's coming soon, says my dad.
by the way, i talked to steve the other night. i think he'll leave... he knows the score.
HF 1515z28august


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: hurricane expert]
      #51467 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:16 AM

omg. I just put this together in my head from all the stuff I've been watching all night and this morning. Something beyond logic.

It is going to land, I think, between Gulfport and Biloxi.

I stayed up all night. I'm gonna go sleep six hours and come back late aft. I don't know anymore if I'm seeing into a crystal ball or saying nonsense. How about leave this post up anyway, and I see you all tonight.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: hurricane expert]
      #51468 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:17 AM

Thanks for posting that graphic with Camille and Katrina. Even the same time of year give or take so very good to use. August storms.. not September.

Think Katrina will stay further south than projected path.

Note that I saw Rappaport on TV and he keeps stressing that storms sometimes shift slowly from the specific line down the middle. Doesn't take much of a shift for another area to receive damage they thought someone else would get.

Media is all over New Orleans. Why? To hype? No.. because this is the storm New Orleans has feared and they have the most to lose as they are a BIG city not a small bayou town. But... more cities than just one are under Hurricane Warning.

Remember that. IF you don't.. go back and look at what happened in Miami to people who were sure that Ft. Lauderdale and Palm Beach were going to get the storm. Tell that to people in Key West watching 9 inches of rainfall recede.

Note.. Death toll in Miami has risen to I believe 9. Either way..not 6 or 7.

Great job you are doing here. Great job on TV.. watch and learn and if you live in a hurricane prone area remember this is not the last storm of this season. We are just getting near the Peak of the Season.. this is still Pre-Season ..not Prime Time Hurricane Season 2005.

So.. pay attention now and remember what you are hearing because if you town is next.. you will have learned something here.

175.. hope she has peaked and will go down but at this point..and she has sped up just a bit... she will go back down to what? 150?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: MikeC]
      #51469 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:18 AM

For those interested, I have tried breaking down and putting into perspective the potential impacts from Katrina in a post on the Met Blogs. Most regions are covered, from the Florida coastline and inland Alabama to central Louisiana. Please feel free to ask if you do not see your particular region listed.

We'll have another recon fix likely in the next 15-20 minutes.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: LoisCane]
      #51471 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:21 AM

Quote:


175.. hope she has peaked and will go down but at this point..and she has sped up just a bit... she will go back down to what? 150?




160 is the forecast speculation I think.

You make several good points. There is no way to know for certain where Katrina will destroy. Shifts in track could happen - they aren't forecast but neither were they forecast for Ivan.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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susieq
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Clark]
      #51472 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:24 AM

It looks to me that she's beginning to make that northerly turn...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Clark]
      #51473 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:26 AM

Latest recon fix doesn't report any increase in the max. flight level winds or decrease in pressure -- still 907mb. The height of the 700mb surface came down another 5m, however, to 2289m and they reported that the surface and flight-level centers appear to be slightly displaced. Not sure if this is a sign of a mesovortex they may be tracking or something else entirely, nor if it is significant, but an eyewall cycle does not appear to be on the immediate horizon.

More later.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Hugh]
      #51474 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:27 AM

OUT OF NEW ORLEANS NWS......

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
943 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


...OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM HURRICANE Katrina AFFECTING METRO
NEW ORLEANS AND THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST...




If people have not left, this might speed them up..... storms are moving in the feeder band at 40-50 mph.... could have gust that high.... can't wait to see it reach NO in the next hour or so and see how the National media does with it.....most are live from that area now.

quick question..... does anybody know where the NO NWS office is located? if so do you think they will evacuate? What kind of area are they in? just was currious.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 28 2005 11:28 AM)


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susieq
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51478 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:31 AM

Is this a turn, or a wobble?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: susieq]
      #51479 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:32 AM

Quote:

It looks to me that she's beginning to make that northerly turn...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html




It's only one image that I see a northward turn on... but I do see it on that one. It's slightly - very slightly - east of the projected track. The recon fixes may say otherwise, but the accuracy of the recon fixes is only 10nm isn't it?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51480 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:33 AM

per clark comments:

URNT12 KNHC 281521
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/15:00:20Z
B. 26 deg 06 min N
088 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2289 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 089 deg 154 kt
G. 002 deg 018 nm
H. 907 mb
I. 11 C/ 3044 m
J. 27 C/ 3006 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C22
N. 12345/ 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1712A Katrina OB 26
MAX FL WIND 166 KTS NE QUAD 1422Z. TEXTBOOK RADAR PRESENTATION AND STADIUM EFFECT . SURFACE CENTER VISIBLE AND SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM FL CENTER.

could it be a sign of a more northerly turn is imminent? (within 6-12hrs)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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hunterdm
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 6
Loc: Crystal River,FL 28.91N 82.62W
Re: ramifications [Re: HanKFranK]
      #51481 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:34 AM

OMG- this storm has me scared. Being a true Floridian, I have seen my fair share, but this is unreal! i am not in the strike by a long shot, but the ramifications of this storm could be phenomenol. I Pray that all in the cone get out. I will be praying for this one to fall apart.

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KimmieL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 26
Loc: Baton Rouge, La
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Clark]
      #51483 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:36 AM

Clark, thanks for the info on your blog. Our local radio is saying gusts to 100 mph. Do you think that is possible? Waiting with baited breath for the next recon fix

Kimmie


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