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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Wind Directions [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #51506 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:19 PM

Judging by the flatness on the W side of the storm it appears a slight turn as projected by the GFDL and UKMET might occur.The latest sat from GHCC looks about 26.3N and 88.4W.Saw Frank P debating leaving.

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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
Re: Wind Directions [Re: bn765]
      #51507 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:22 PM

I accually think it looks a little worse off then 6 hours ago. The coldest cloud tops have dimished around the center a little. I doubt it has weakened any, but I think it has reached its peak. I doubt it will weaken much, if any, before landfall. However, an ERC would defineltly be a good thing in the next 6-12 hours. Then it should still be in the middle of it during landfall. Not much of a help, but about the most one can hope for.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Get Out [Re: Myles]
      #51508 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:26 PM

if the track follows the NHC track i would definatley evacuate now if i was in New Orleans, Grand Isle, Gulfport, Billoxi and Mobile i might if i was in really low lying area.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
Re: Wind Directions [Re: Myles]
      #51509 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:29 PM

One thing that does look emtremely impressive is the eye. Even though cloud tops have wamred a bit, the accual eye has become much better defined. More circular then before and the stadium affect is visable on any sat you look at. Perhaps this thing could get a little stronger, I hope not, NO is already in for one hell of a storm.

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Unbelievable Local Statement From NOLA Weather Service [Re: Clark]
      #51510 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:35 PM

I know everyone can access the links on the front page of this thread to read all the official bulletins and local statements being issued by the NHC and various National Weather Service offices. But, when I read this excerpt from the 10:00 am New Orleans National Weather Service Local Statement, I was stunned. I have never seen such a graphic expression (from an official source!) of the expected devastation from any hurricane. For those who have not taken the time to browse through the informative links provided, I cut-and-pasted this excerpt....read for yourself and pray that something intervenes to save New Orleans from this fate:

Quote from the National Weather Service, New Orleans:
Quote:

HURRICANE Katrina...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.




Incredibly sobering.....

--Lou


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GLT
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: Central FL
Re: Wind Directions [Re: Myles]
      #51511 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:36 PM

A guy on TWC said the FEMA had modeled a 4 or 5 direct hit on NO and said there would be 40-60,000 casulties.

GET OUT.

GLT


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Wind Directions [Re: Myles]
      #51512 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:37 PM

The President comments on Katrina just aired. The Iraq Comments were much longer in time though... This is going to be big event in history. hope all is safe

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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josh
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Re: Unbelievable Local Statement From NOLA Weather Service [Re: recmod]
      #51513 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:37 PM

I don't know if this is the time or the place to discuss this, but if Katrina gets any stronger could it be the strongest storm ever recorded?

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FloydRTurbo
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Des Moines, IA
Re: Unbelievable Local Statement From NOLA Weather Service [Re: josh]
      #51514 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:43 PM

Doubtful, if you look the NHC page on the left hand side there is a list for the most costliest, deadliest, and most intense. Katrina has a ways to go yet, especially when compared to Pacific cyclones. But it could be a record in the Gulf

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Unbelievable Local Statement From NOLA Weather Service [Re: recmod]
      #51515 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:44 PM

Live Streaming View out of WWL TV in New Orleans:

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad


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bigpapi
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
Re: Unbelievable Local Statement From NOLA Weather Service [Re: recmod]
      #51516 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:44 PM

That NWS exerpt is extremely sobering. My question is, I know the Superdome is made of concrete, but has it been tested to withstand 175 mph winds? Once again that exerpt makes one think nothing is safe wherever this comes ashore.

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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: Unbelievable Local Statement From NOLA Weather Service [Re: josh]
      #51518 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:46 PM

I don't know.....the no name storm in the Keys and Galveston may rank higher - not sure. This is the strongest i have ever seen a storm get. I mean 175 MPH is just insane. Know whats more insane? I went to the ABC News channel web site for NO and they are like so out of date. On their main page they have a story about Katrina still being near Florida and how it's going to hit the panhandle. It's got to be a few days old. Maybe that stations employees left town.....not sure, but it's scary that they havent updated anything since Thursday or Friday.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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VG
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: Tampa Bay, FL
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: MikeC]
      #51519 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:47 PM

#101 Published Sunday August 27, 2005 at 12:30 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

Sorry folks but I lost my web server at around 1:00 am EDT this morning and cannot update my weather forecasting website and It could not be worse timing.

At the 8:00 am EDT advisory Hurricane Katrina was updated to a CAT 5 tropical cyclone with a sustained wind of 160 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of 26.81". It underwent incredible strengthening during the overnight hours after the ERC ended.

As of the 11:00 am EDT advisory CAT 5 Katrina has a sustained wind of 175 mph with gusts exceeding 200 mph, is at position 26.0 deg. N 88.6 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 26.78"" and is currently on a WNW heading at a speed of 12 mph. Right now Katrina is as strong as CAT 5 Camille was in 1969, only much larger.

I still think that Katrina will turn NW-N-NE and pass just east of the Mississippi River Delta due to the influence of the strengthening and digging mid level longwave trough current located over the Central Plains region. But this will still threaten the Louisiana Delta with total inundation as well as on the east side of the City Of New Orleans.

I continue to see no reason to change my landfall forecast "appreciably", one that has been in effect since Friday evening 08/26/05, of between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL on Monday 08/29/05.

However I will now shift the landfall window a little to the west, of Pascagoula, MS on the left side and Navarre, FL on the right side, with the bulls eye along the Alabama-Florida border. But due to the size of this tropical cyclone the damage window will extend from Morgan CIty, LA in the west to Apalachicola, FL in the east, on early Monday morning 08/29/05.

As far as I know there have been no mandatory evacuations ordered along the Alabama coast eastward to the western Florida panhandle, so a horrific human catastrophe may occur. If Katrina were to hold her present strength then we would be looking at an incredible storm surge of 28-32 feet just to the right of the eyewall at landfall. Some of the surge may also reach the west coast of the Florida peninsula too.

Even the intensity forecast has now become difficult. It is very hard for a tropical cyclone to hold at a strong CAT 5 level for very long but she is so strong that she may only weaken back to a weak CAT 5 (oxymoron) at landfall. But as she leaves the loop current, enters shallower shelf waters and dry air entrainment and wind shear increases, she may weaken back to a CAT 4 at landfall. But a CAT 4 will still cause catastrophic damage.

By the way the NHC/TPC has extended a tropical storm warning eastward to Indian Pass, FL well east of Panama City and outside the forecast track error cone, also westward to Cameron, LA. That tells you just how large this tropical cyclone is!!!

--------------------
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA


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oil trader
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: Bruce]
      #51520 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:49 PM

Quote:

Just a quick post. Since 30% of the US gas comes in through LA, I would fill up my tank, gas prices could go up to over $5.00 a gallon in the next couple of days.




Not $5.00, but the national average gas price would be between $3.00 to $4.00, $0.50 higher at least from friday in every part of the country. President Bush just finished his speech and said nothing about how the Administration is going to address the consecuences. By next week end Katrina will not be only a LA and MS event but a Global Kaos.


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Sportsfreak1989s
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Lafayette, Louisiana
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #51521 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:58 PM

Please help me ya'll. I live in Lafayette Louisiana and was wondering exactly what to do. Now that Katrina is now at 175 MPH and 200 + Gusts. I would like to know can this thing come my way still??? WHat do I do?? If in fact it does hit New Orleans how much damage can I expect??? Please help me.

THANKS and all my prayers go out to everyone within this things path.

you're over in lafayette.. well west of where this thing is supposed to go. winds will probably get to tropical storm force for a while where you are.. the hurricane would have to swing wide to the left to give you hurricane force. you should be ok. maybe power out/tree damage. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:41 PM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: oil trader]
      #51522 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:02 PM

If anyone is in an evacuation area, GET OUT NOW.

I would also like to point out that it is not only the people at the coast that needs to leave. This will be a hurricane well inland, and will take some time to spin down. The right front quadrant will also likely have many tornados in addition to flooding rains. Last year we saw deaths from Ivan as far north as Virginia. Even after this is well inland, daytime heating will cause locally severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes during this week as the instability from daytime heating works in tandem with the vorticity the storm will still have. It is understandable to focus on the areas that will be hit the hardest, but I just wanted to remind everyone that being 500 miles inland doesn't necessarily protect you either.
Also, our thoughts and prayers are with all of you. At church this morning, you all were included in our intentions.


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CrestviewBRM
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: MrSpock]
      #51523 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:05 PM

I just got word that there is now a mandatory evacuation for all costal areas of Okaloosa County, FL.

http://www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/news_updates.asp?ID=115

Edited by CrestviewBRM (Sun Aug 28 2005 01:07 PM)


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 156
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Wind Directions [Re: bn765]
      #51524 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:05 PM

There's no reason to think that the winds will decrease. There's just nothing there to slow it down...if anything the water temperatures could maintain the current speeds almost all the way into land.

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Marianne
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 6
Loc: Hazel Green, AL
Re: Wind Directions [Re: Psyber]
      #51526 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:10 PM

Even here in North Alabama we are worried about what will happen on Tuesday.

Hoping everyone stays safe....this one is a monster.


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: oil trader]
      #51527 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:10 PM

Unfortunately supply will be constrained and demand will be high, and there is nothing that can be done except to prevent/police gougers.

This is off topic (a little, so please forgive me), but with what has been happening the last 10 years with the multi-decadal shift in the North Atlantic, and the fact that it is likely to continue for another 10 or 20 years, this is a tough problem to address. In 1984 there were some 340 refineries in the US with a much lower population. Now, there are half as many refineries, with a much larger world population (China) taking up much oil, thus much higher prices. If there is any good that can come out of all of this, is that hopefully there will be a greater push for other sources of energy, that are cleaner, and not as easy to disrupt as they are currently. I also don't like comparisons to gas prices 30 years ago. Yes, inflation adjusted it was much higher then, but I never bought gas back then, so it is irrevelent to me. Also, even those that did, are not budgeted for higher prices today just because they had to 30 years ago.

Even if gas is higher, I think it is still wise to fill up if you can find it. I would much rather gamble at a casino, than with a cat 5, as my chances are better at the casino.

Edited by MrSpock (Sun Aug 28 2005 01:13 PM)


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