stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Was just reading the article. Unfortunately there seems to be a lot of "hope that it can" but no "study that it can" withstand a Cat III or above. I guess they are going to give it a live field test. I hope the results are not tragic, but in this case, it maybe the only shelter that a lot of folks have.
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Jara
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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NWC just said pressure is 902! Could that be. Good God. HOw frightning.
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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TWC just said 902mb with 184mph winds. I can't even begint to imagine the destruction.
God bless all.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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This is unreal. It continues to strengthen with no sign of weakening. Wow.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
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Quote:
TWC just said 902mb with 184mph winds. I can't even begint to imagine the destruction.
God bless all.
The Weather Channel's reporting of 184 mph is misleading. That is just the latest max flight level wind found by the recon plane. The surface wind has not changed from 175 mph... not that it makes much difference at this point.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Pressure just dropped to 902 according to deputy director of .
Oh my. 
Oops, sorry for the double post, was beaten to the punch.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:42 PM)
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Shan
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
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Just some news from southern Mobile county. Gov. Riley has issued a mandatory evac. for zone 1 in southern Mobile county.
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Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL
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TheElNino
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 9
Loc: Orlando, FL
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With another drop of 2mb I expect the winds to increase a bit more..
Edited by TheElNino (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:50 PM)
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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Do you really believe that will make such a sharp right turn? What would cause that?If so, that's a scary thought. We really aren't that prepared here in the Panhandle for a direct hit. It looks to me like the storm is so powerful that is has staved off the effects of the trough. Is that possible?
Thanks for the info.
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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It's an old building. Have very little faith in it... for something like this. One strong microburst in the vicinity of the Superdome ala Andrew except here a microburst would be what??? 215mph? 220mph? One small vortex with twisters and you tell me that place is a safe place to store thousands of poor souls with no where to go?
Should be a way to get them out of the city..anywhere but there.
Thanks for article. Read it before and that was really why I asked because I would think someone has done studies to see what it can withstand ... just don't think it's a good plan.
Prayers to everyone there and if you had more hard data on any studies done..like to see them.
Also.. anyone have any good sites with links to localized water temps to see if there is anywhere there that the water is cooler than other places.. any chance it will go down in intensity just a little?
lastly... read however that the pressure dropped.. again.
so much for all of us thinking she had leveled off on intensity
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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TDW
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL
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I'm zone 3 in Mobile, but this is a new thing for us and I'm not sure if most people know their zones. There has been a lot of discussion in Mobile that leads me to believe people are not taking this seriously. They seem to think it is all N.O.
Mark Sudduth on his web site even said "Once away from the water, my goal is to find somewhere where we can actually get below ground. That's how bad this could be. " For someone that has been through the storms he has, everyone should take note.
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"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"
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Shan
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
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I totally agree. People in the Mobile area are not taking this seriously. The local news is saying cat. 5 storm surge along the immediate coast here with cat. 1 or cat. 2 winds. I was 9 when Fredrick came through and havne't forgotten it. I'm afraid the damage here from could be just as bad as Freddy was.
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Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I feel pretty positive we are looking at an Annular Hurricane such as Isabel in 2003 (attached). These are extremely rare in the Atlantic Basin. These storms do not go through (from what I am reading) as quickly as other hurricanes normally would. I am guessing because after the last EWR the eye was so large it takes some time to contract inward (which it looks like it is still doing). This is the link I have been reading (about a third of the way down).
http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=19418&st=0
The scary thing about annular hurricanes is they are slow to spin down as long as conditions remain the same. Isabel as an example was a Cat5 storm for about 48hrs. Interesting reading as we are seeing something in action that is rarely ever seen. I think the stat was .08% of Atlantic hurricanes become annular
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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there is no silver lining, but it's good that the cloud tops have cooled some since this morning. don't think will do more than level off and slowly weaken from here on in. that's historically what one would expect. the SSTs are upper 80s and aren't going to change... the dry air feed is light and roughly the same... and the upper westerlies seem to be bowing to the storm rather than the storm bowing to it. i'd expect the hurricane to have spun down at least to a borderline 4/5 at landfall, because it's just not normal for a hurricane that strong and large to keep it's intensity steady. it should slowly erode back in the fashion that did.. i don't see any s on the way because the eye is large and the eyewall solid.
forecast track, unfortunately, looks correct. assuming it is correct, which i do... it should come in just east of grand isle, move up just east of new orleans metro. ponchatrain should be in the city tomorrow afternoon. since the eye is large, areas like bay st louis and gulfport are going to get torn up pretty badly. biloxi and pascagoula will likely see serious damage as well.. places like houma and mobile less so, but still a significant impact. hurricane force winds will extend well inland into mississippi...i wouldn't be surprised if they get as far inland as columbus or even tupelo. the official has it as a tropical storm practically to kentucky, and that looks right as well.
the fairy godmother likes to show up at the last minute with these things. keep your fingers crossed for monday morning. it's something you never really see coming, but , , and were all less than they could have been.
HF 1856z28august
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Latest pressure is 902mb.
678
URNT12 KNHC 281825
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/1755Z
B. 26 DEG 20 MIN N
88 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2242 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 140 DEG 160 KT
G. 050 DEG 22 NM
H. 902 MB
I. 14 C/ 3050 M
J. 29 C/ 3064 M
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 1234/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1812A OB 05
MAX FL WIND 160 KTS NE QUAD 1743Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
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Jara
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Does anyone know off hand what Gilberts lowest pressure was? I think it was pre-Yucatan What is the record low pressure for the GOM? We must be close
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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it is obvious that the westerlies are backing off a bit which may still give a north turn but ne, doubt it. the westerlies were nearly across jxn, ms this am and now they're back to east part of louisiana. This should concern the track later today.
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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Gilbert was 888 mb
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The mayor said this morning that the SuperDome could handle winds up to 200 mph.
He also mentioned that there were other buildings available as a *backup* plan. Given the long lines of people waiting to get into the SuperDome, I'd say they should already have the backup plan, and the backup plan to the backup plan in place. I feel like I am watching one of those weather horror movies. The scientist keeps telling officials to keep moving, and the officials keep saying, "We're looking into it". I hope they know more than I do.
-- unless you have scientific proof that a shelter won't provide the protection that the Mayor has said it could, please don't give suggest otherwise for the saftey of others. Thank you.
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 28 2005 03:23 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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gilbert was 888
i just got back home after being basically away from computer access, but, aside from a quick couple of errands, will be on as much as possible...of course, anyone who is ANYWHERE NEAR where she will make landfall should already be GONE...will try to get any reports, maps, shelter info, etc. anyone may need...
HOLY $+!#...
the superdome...can anyone believe we're actually talking about it NOT being able to survive?
OK...i'll be in and out for the next couple...but once i get back i'm here for the long haul...
TSFH II...it's way past BUCKLE UP time...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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