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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Ron Basso]
      #51600 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:05 PM

Quote:

Last hour or so KAT has moved N-NW - it may be a wobble but its nail biting time watching every radar & SAT image.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10




Katrina is right on, or maybe just a tad west of the official track. This is about right.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Ron Basso]
      #51601 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:08 PM

Visible and IR Floater appears to show a slight northerly vecot componenet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Put the IR Loop with Tropical Forecast points. It looks like it is tracking right on the mark

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:25 PM)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #51602 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:12 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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JYarsh
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Virginia Beach, VA
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #51603 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:14 PM

In the last few frames, it looks like Katrina has made the turn to the north, or at least north-northwest. Its staying right on track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #51604 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:15 PM

looks like were about 88.9 and 26.7 on the long range base loop. a little west indeed.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_long.shtml


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #51605 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:16 PM

The storm is steered by a deep-layer flow through the entire atmosphere and surface frictional effects will have little impact on a storm this intense. As it weakens after landfall, the lower-level winds will take over to a greater degree in steering the storm, but that's a different matter than frictional effects along the coastline.

The greater effects from friction will be the potential for tornadoes to the right of the storm track at landfall. The potential is there for a similar scenario tornado-wise as seen with Ivan, just likely a bit further west in the western Fl. Panhandle and Alabama.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Topography of New Orleans [Re: Clark]
      #51607 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:26 PM Attachment (287 downloads)

the picture says 902 words.
it will be very interesting to see what plays out.


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GulfBreezeFL
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: VG]
      #51608 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:29 PM

Quote:



My current landfall window continues at Pascagoula, MS on the left side and Navarre, FL on the right side, with the bulls eye along the Alabama-Florida border. But due to the size of this tropical cyclone the damage window will extend from Morgan CIty, LA in the west to Apalachicola, FL in the east on early Monday morning 08/29/05.

I'm now hearing of some mandatory evacuations being ordered along the Alabama coast eastward to the western Florida panhandle, so a horrific human catastrophe may be averted. If Katrina were to hold her present strength then we would be looking at an incredible storm surge of 15-20 feet, with some spots seeing 28-32 feet just to the right of the eyewall at landfall. Some of the surge may also reach the west coast of the Florida peninsula too.







Bullseye along the AL/FL border???? Hrmmmmm, do you have an enemy in the Florida Panhandle you are trying to scare?

VG, i think you need to explain a bit more about your theory as it contradicts every model, met i've heard thus far. Otherwise i think his post and this one (mine) should be deleted. Another reason being, the bullseye hitting Mobile/Pcola would basically be a close call for N.O. which unfortunately isn't going to be the case.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: GulfBreezeFL]
      #51610 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:39 PM

Long range radar loop out of NO shows a NNW track but not a great deal of movement. I may be wrong but it looks to be slowing down. This would be a very bad scenario. We are already flooding in NW Florida.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: pcola]
      #51612 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:45 PM

It looks like she is tracking just a few miles West of the forecast track. This is all very bad for NO.

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: GulfBreezeFL]
      #51613 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:46 PM

Here is where Thomas posted his forecast and reasoning. He also posted it on this board a day or so ago. It may not come to fruition but it is based on expert knowledge and experience. Mr Giella credentials are very good.

Weather Forecasting Blog For Retired Meteorologist Thomas Giella

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


Edited by stormchazer (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:50 PM)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #51615 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:49 PM

The 17:00 EDT is out:

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/wxstatement.php?id=42602


Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:53 PM)


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TDW
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL 30.70N 88.05W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: stormchazer]
      #51616 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:49 PM

Looks like winds are down to 165 mph, not but much better, but it may be the start of something good - relativelt speaking.

--------------------
"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"


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GulfBreezeFL
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: stormchazer]
      #51617 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:50 PM

I'm just saying that if someone were stupid enough to think of VG as the final authority on these things (which is doubtful), and they live in N.O., they might be inclined to ride it out.


Not a good thing, IMHO.


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nate77
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: TDW]
      #51618 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:52 PM

I just saw a projection that still predicts Katrina to hit land at a CAT 4.. With the wind decrese, we can only pray.

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Convergence
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: TDW]
      #51619 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:55 PM

Unfortunately, Cat 5 storms, and especially annular storms, fluctuate quite a bit in terms of windspeed, and since the pressure has continued to drop, I would say that weakening has not occured.

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: GulfBreezeFL]
      #51620 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:56 PM

It's too late for anyone still in NO to try to leave now...curfew will be in effect soon & I believe contraflow is stopped already..interstate still looks packed...public trans will shut down.

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: GulfBreezeFL]
      #51621 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:57 PM

VG isn't the final authority, but he used to do this for a living, you know? I think a little more respect to someone who gave us fantastic service might be in order.

That being said, he disclaims his lack of immersion nowadays, and nothing he says should give anyone in NO an excuse to be drinking on Bourbon St. instead of running for their safety.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: nate77]
      #51622 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:59 PM

Look at this NRL track and its relationship to Lake Poncitrain (sp?):

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/12L.KATRINA/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

Again, if she stays just east of Poncitrain, it is the worst case sceanrio due to the northerly winds dumping the lake into the city.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
New thread [Re: Clark]
      #51623 - Sun Aug 28 2005 05:00 PM

New thread up on the main board.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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