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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH - TD#13 Forms East of Caribbean Islands
      #51453 - Sun Aug 28 2005 10:56 AM

5pm Update
Winds with Katrina have fallen slightly, from 150kt/172.5mph to 145kt/166.75mph. This in no way diminishes the threat associated with the storm and, given the peak in flight level winds this morning, more likely represents a leveling off of intensity for the time being.

4:00pm Update
Tropical Depression #13 has formed in the Atlantic east of the islands. More to come later about that.

2:30pm Update
Recon reports that the pressure has fallen again, this time to 902mb. Winds still remain near 150kt/175mph at the surface, however, given maximum flight level winds remaining steady around 160kt. Nevertheless, Katrina continues to maintain itself as a strong category 5 hurricane as it approaches landall, now expected within 24hr.




(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)

Original Update
The crew from the latest recon flight states "Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 166 KTS OUTBOUND NE Quadrant at 1422Z. Perfect stadium effect and textboox radar depiction of eyewall."



The chat link is open for the event.

10:50AM
Hurricane Katrina is now up to 175MPH Maximum Sustained winds.

If you are near the coast and in the cone for Katrina YOU SHOULD NOT BE LOOKING AT THIS PAGE - prepare and evacuate if necessary

10:30AM
Winds with Katrina are now estimated at 175mph with gusts well over 200mph. Mayor Nugin of New Orleans has issued the city's first ever mandatory full scale evacution. If you are along the coast in any of the hurricane warning areas, I'd recommend evacuation, follow the recommendations of local officials in regards to these. If you do not evacuate, you are seriously endangering your life -- there's no other way to put it right now.



SUNDAY - 8:30AM UPDATE
With central pressure now at 908MB and sustained winds of 160MPH, Katrina is now a powerful Category V Hurricane. As with any strong hurricane, fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next 24 hours as the storm moves northwest and north toward the Louisiana/Mississippi border area, but the bottom line is that Katrina is a dangerous hurricane that will cause extensive to catastrophic damage when she makes landfall along the north central Gulf coast.



Significant track changes are less likely as the window of time for those changes narrows - the best advise is to monitor the latest track forecasts from NHC. Tropical storm or hurricane force winds will cover a large area of the northern Gulf coast (probably all of it), and near the center of the storm hurricane force winds will extend well inland from the coast for at least 12 to 18 hours after landfall. The storm is expected to move due north and eventually north northeast after landfall. Residents in the Hurricane Warning area are urged to take immediate protective action.
ED

For discussion on other developing Atlantic Systems (90L) go to this link.

Event Related Links
General Links
Report Katrina conditions in your area/read other's reports at this link (registration not required).

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Graphic showing elevations of New Orleans

Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management

Video/Audio Links
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
New Orleans Webcams
French Quarter Cam
New Orleans Traffic Cams

Flhurricane/Joseph Johnston Mobile Cam

Television/Radio
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans)
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
WTOK 11 / Missippii Alabama ABC Affiliate -- Jason Kelly is assisting Operations Here
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile

Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans

-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!

Katrina

Google Map plot of Katrina
Hurricane Camille and Hurricane Katrina plotted on a google map

Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Water Vapor Floater of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Spaghetti Model Plot of Katrina from Colorado State

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
New Orleans, LA Long Range Radar

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, New Orleans, Mobile

TD#13

Animated model plots of TD#13

Invest 91L


Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:48 PM)


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: MikeC]
      #51458 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:03 AM

They just said that I10 is gridlocked. A situation like this just makes you feel sick. I feel so bad for everybody that will be affected by this storm.

The first rain band will affect NO in 1-2 hrs according to NWS

--------------------
Matt

Edited by chase 22 (Sun Aug 28 2005 11:08 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: MikeC]
      #51459 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:03 AM

URNT11 KNHC 281448
97779 14434 10268 88119 30400 11083 0909/ /3882
RMK AF302 1712A Katrina OB 25
50 NM NORTH OF CENTER. INBOUND


recon on there way in towards center....wonder if they will find any higher winds?..... i sure hope they have there cameras with them on this flight!!!!
Katrina should be retired and go down in history most likely now!!!!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51460 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:06 AM

Well, once again, the other shoe drops. The same new wording we saw in the news at 9am this morning. Actually, I like the way they decided to do this. From the 10am discussion:

"Recalling that the average NHC 24-hour
track forecast error is about 80 N mi...the actual landfall point
could still be anywhere from southeastern Louisiana to the
Mississippi coast. Also...we must continue to stress that the
hurricane is not just a point on the map...because destructive
winds...torrential rains...storm surge...and dangerous waves extend
well away from the eye. It is impossible to specify which County
or Parish will experience the worst weather."

What else could they do given the situation and forecasting limitations? NHC conservatively will always stay with the previous forecast unless there is some specific rationale to change it. But here they are saying the forecast is only as good as it is, and for a storm like this, the forecast isn't really good enough - not anyone's fault.

So anyone anywhere near can expect they might possibly see the worst, not just NO now. But notice the error all goes to the EAST of the original predicted track, none to the west (lucky you, Abbeville). So look for a curve more to the NE closer to landfall.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Aug 28 2005 11:08 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51461 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:08 AM

Quote:

URNT11 KNHC 281448
97779 14434 10268 88119 30400 11083 0909/ /3882
RMK AF302 1712A Katrina OB 25
50 NM NORTH OF CENTER. INBOUND
recon on there way in towards center....wonder if they will find any higher winds?..... i sure hope they have there cameras with them on this flight!!!!
Katrina should be retired and go down in history most likely now!!!!




No question about that. It would likely have been retired simply from the devastation in the S. Florida area. Looking at the latest IR imagery... I see no reason to believe the winds will go higher than 175-180. In fact it might be looking a little ragged in comparison to an hour ago, so they might drop to 160-170. But I was floored by the 175 so soon, so it might be higher than I'm thinking.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: MikeC]
      #51462 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:09 AM

CNN said that this hurricane is know stronger than camille it will do more or about the same. Well the speed say it all 175 MPH gust to 215 this is unbelivible.

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Margie]
      #51463 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:12 AM

Margie..that's a given & what others have been trying to stress...she's a huge powerful storm & regardless of where the bullseye is the effects will be far reaching...not just coastal areas either...inland as well.

I think those who live along areas that have experienced these things first hand are aware of this...it's just getting the point to others that just because landfall might a little more to east or west doesn't really matter in the greater scheme of things.

I mean according to maps they've been showing on TWC Pcola can expect 20-25 ft surge & that's with having lanfall in LA.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
ramifications [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51466 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:15 AM

this hurricane has the potential to impact our economy like none before it. we may lose a major port/trade/distribution center for the south and central part of the county tomorrow... Katrina is probably going to shut it down. the city is likely going to be unlivable for some time... sizable refugee problem. cities like biloxi and gulfport will likely experience significant damage as well. this hurricane will probably lap Andrew and set the bar a great deal higher.
offshore oil production is going to be way down as well... we may lose a platform or two. new orleans is a major refining center as well... so get ready for $3 a gallon gas.. it's coming soon, says my dad.
by the way, i talked to steve the other night. i think he'll leave... he knows the score.
HF 1515z28august


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: hurricane expert]
      #51467 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:16 AM

omg. I just put this together in my head from all the stuff I've been watching all night and this morning. Something beyond logic.

It is going to land, I think, between Gulfport and Biloxi.

I stayed up all night. I'm gonna go sleep six hours and come back late aft. I don't know anymore if I'm seeing into a crystal ball or saying nonsense. How about leave this post up anyway, and I see you all tonight.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: hurricane expert]
      #51468 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:17 AM

Thanks for posting that graphic with Camille and Katrina. Even the same time of year give or take so very good to use. August storms.. not September.

Think Katrina will stay further south than projected path.

Note that I saw Rappaport on TV and he keeps stressing that storms sometimes shift slowly from the specific line down the middle. Doesn't take much of a shift for another area to receive damage they thought someone else would get.

Media is all over New Orleans. Why? To hype? No.. because this is the storm New Orleans has feared and they have the most to lose as they are a BIG city not a small bayou town. But... more cities than just one are under Hurricane Warning.

Remember that. IF you don't.. go back and look at what happened in Miami to people who were sure that Ft. Lauderdale and Palm Beach were going to get the storm. Tell that to people in Key West watching 9 inches of rainfall recede.

Note.. Death toll in Miami has risen to I believe 9. Either way..not 6 or 7.

Great job you are doing here. Great job on TV.. watch and learn and if you live in a hurricane prone area remember this is not the last storm of this season. We are just getting near the Peak of the Season.. this is still Pre-Season ..not Prime Time Hurricane Season 2005.

So.. pay attention now and remember what you are hearing because if you town is next.. you will have learned something here.

175.. hope she has peaked and will go down but at this point..and she has sped up just a bit... she will go back down to what? 150?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: MikeC]
      #51469 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:18 AM

For those interested, I have tried breaking down and putting into perspective the potential impacts from Katrina in a post on the Met Blogs. Most regions are covered, from the Florida coastline and inland Alabama to central Louisiana. Please feel free to ask if you do not see your particular region listed.

We'll have another recon fix likely in the next 15-20 minutes.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: LoisCane]
      #51471 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:21 AM

Quote:


175.. hope she has peaked and will go down but at this point..and she has sped up just a bit... she will go back down to what? 150?




160 is the forecast speculation I think.

You make several good points. There is no way to know for certain where Katrina will destroy. Shifts in track could happen - they aren't forecast but neither were they forecast for Ivan.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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susieq
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Clark]
      #51472 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:24 AM

It looks to me that she's beginning to make that northerly turn...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Clark]
      #51473 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:26 AM

Latest recon fix doesn't report any increase in the max. flight level winds or decrease in pressure -- still 907mb. The height of the 700mb surface came down another 5m, however, to 2289m and they reported that the surface and flight-level centers appear to be slightly displaced. Not sure if this is a sign of a mesovortex they may be tracking or something else entirely, nor if it is significant, but an eyewall cycle does not appear to be on the immediate horizon.

More later.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Hugh]
      #51474 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:27 AM

OUT OF NEW ORLEANS NWS......

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
943 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


...OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM HURRICANE Katrina AFFECTING METRO
NEW ORLEANS AND THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST...




If people have not left, this might speed them up..... storms are moving in the feeder band at 40-50 mph.... could have gust that high.... can't wait to see it reach NO in the next hour or so and see how the National media does with it.....most are live from that area now.

quick question..... does anybody know where the NO NWS office is located? if so do you think they will evacuate? What kind of area are they in? just was currious.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 28 2005 11:28 AM)


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susieq
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51478 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:31 AM

Is this a turn, or a wobble?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: susieq]
      #51479 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:32 AM

Quote:

It looks to me that she's beginning to make that northerly turn...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html




It's only one image that I see a northward turn on... but I do see it on that one. It's slightly - very slightly - east of the projected track. The recon fixes may say otherwise, but the accuracy of the recon fixes is only 10nm isn't it?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51480 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:33 AM

per clark comments:

URNT12 KNHC 281521
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/15:00:20Z
B. 26 deg 06 min N
088 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2289 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 089 deg 154 kt
G. 002 deg 018 nm
H. 907 mb
I. 11 C/ 3044 m
J. 27 C/ 3006 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C22
N. 12345/ 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1712A Katrina OB 26
MAX FL WIND 166 KTS NE QUAD 1422Z. TEXTBOOK RADAR PRESENTATION AND STADIUM EFFECT . SURFACE CENTER VISIBLE AND SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM FL CENTER.

could it be a sign of a more northerly turn is imminent? (within 6-12hrs)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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hunterdm
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 6
Loc: Crystal River,FL 28.91N 82.62W
Re: ramifications [Re: HanKFranK]
      #51481 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:34 AM

OMG- this storm has me scared. Being a true Floridian, I have seen my fair share, but this is unreal! i am not in the strike by a long shot, but the ramifications of this storm could be phenomenol. I Pray that all in the cone get out. I will be praying for this one to fall apart.

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KimmieL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 26
Loc: Baton Rouge, La
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Clark]
      #51483 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:36 AM

Clark, thanks for the info on your blog. Our local radio is saying gusts to 100 mph. Do you think that is possible? Waiting with baited breath for the next recon fix

Kimmie


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Grant
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51484 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:37 AM

Quote:


quick question..... does anybody know where the NO NWS office is located? if so do you think they will evacuate? What kind of area are they in? just was currious.




It's actually located in Slidell, on Airport Road. If the current track holds, that NWS office is in for a world of hurt....

--------------------
Richter I - Systems Administrator / Meteorology Student


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: susieq]
      #51485 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:38 AM

after watching the gulf loop, it appears to elongate slightly north/south, and you can see the front system push throught Texas. Could this be the nodge to the northeast move that the model was hinting at? :?:

Sorry forgot the link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

Edited by Lisa NC (Sun Aug 28 2005 11:39 AM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Grant]
      #51486 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:40 AM

I imagine that the people in the NWS/Slidell office, if the threat is there, will move into their storm room or even move out of the office and coordinate with their backup office -- every NWS office has one, and I'm sure they are prepping for this eventuality -- to cover their area for them.

As for Baton Rouge: gusts to 100mph are possible, but that's probably on the high end of things.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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GEORGIA GIRL
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: susieq]
      #51488 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:45 AM

TWC just said that they are expecting her to make a more northerly turn some time today. Also said something to the affect that, that will determine where she will make land fall. Ofcourse we have expected that turn all along, maybe not as soon as they originally thought. Although if she does turn sooner, it still does not help matters much with New Orleans. At this point it looks to me like it would have to be a drastic north east turn for the North Gulf coast to be in the clear. Even then they would still see significant effects from the storm because it is already so close to the coastline. This is just my take on it. No matter when it turns it is still going to be devastating to so many. This storm is so huge and powerful. It absolutely amazes me. I just pray that no matter where it goes that everyone is safe. It will affect such a huge area whether it moves east or west. So many states... Even cities like Atlanta(if it were to make its turn sooner) when a storm like this skirts along side of this city, the flooding is devastating. My prayers are with you all!!

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Lisa NC]
      #51489 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:45 AM

Quote:

after watching the gulf loop, it appears to elongate slightly north/south, and you can see the front system push throught Texas. Could this be the nodge to the northeast move that the model was hinting at? :?:

Sorry forgot the link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html




Don't know what the last WV image you can see is but for me it is 1445 which is an hour old now - but that one was FRIGHTENING. Okay, now I can see the 1515 image. Is it The Turn? I hope not. Another half hour or hour and we'll know.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Grant]
      #51490 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:48 AM

well i found the addy..... yep your right... they could be in a little trouble.....hope its a rather new type of office.
found them on google maps ( HERE )

to me on recent sats, the low level center look like it is trying to move more northwest than the mid to upper level parts... or it just may be the sun going over and affecting the shot.
upper part of center looks like its expanding on nw side. outflow a little off, sign of weakening?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51491 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:50 AM

All I can say at this is that I am stunned...and I'm praying for our friends who live in the cone, that they are able to get out safely. I am also praying that these winds drop down; I do not know whether or not the hurricane can sustain the winds for such a long time, but I'm sure hoping they can't.
If this is posted in the wrong place, feel free to move it. At this point, I can't think of anything else to say except stay safe and stay alive.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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hockeyucf
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: Orlando
Wind Directions [Re: Hugh]
      #51492 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:50 AM

A friend in Mobile just asked me a question regarding wind direction... I went through Charley myself and remember expecting winds out of the west, only to receive winds from due East (in east Orange Cty.).

Could someone qualified please take a gander at what direction folks in Mobile can expect wind from?(and other cities too, it might be helpful to others on the board).

Thanks in advance!

-Cara

----------------------------------------------------
Andrew, Charley, Frances, Jeanne


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Clark]
      #51493 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:55 AM

Quote:

For those interested, I have tried breaking down and putting into perspective the potential impacts from Katrina in a post on the Met Blogs. Most regions are covered, from the Florida coastline and inland Alabama to central Louisiana. Please feel free to ask if you do not see your particular region listed.

We'll have another recon fix likely in the next 15-20 minutes.




Clark,

Thank you for adding your comments. It is most appreciated!


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pcola
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: hockeyucf]
      #51495 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:55 AM

My son and I just went outside to do our monthly ritual board up...and the Navy just bugged out of Pcola..had about 10 jets heading to the east....that would tell me they expect Hurricane force winds..remember they had 100 million in damage in Ivan

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Clark
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: hockeyucf]
      #51496 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:56 AM

Winds in Mobile should be out of the southeast as the storm approaches, south as it makes landfall, and southwest thereafter. General intensity will be to hurricane-force along the water and slightly weaker inland.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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JMII
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: hockeyucf]
      #51497 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:04 PM

Quote:

Could someone qualified please take a gander at what direction folks in Mobile can expect wind from?




I'm not "qualified" in an offical sense but - the wind will come from the southeast primarly, but at landfall it will be coming from the south. Now once the center passes it will shift to and start coming from the west.

I hate to say it but this is going to be ugly I hope the people along the coast can get out of harms way



...or what Clark said above -I was just a little late pressing the POST button

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)

Edited by JMII (Sun Aug 28 2005 12:05 PM)


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mbfly
Weather Guru


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Re: Wind Directions [Re: hockeyucf]
      #51498 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:06 PM

Quote:

A friend in Mobile just asked me a question regarding wind direction...
Could someone qualified please take a gander at what direction folks in Mobile can expect wind from
Thanks in advance!

-Cara






I can tell you that right now, we are getting some pretty good gusts of wind out of the southeast. As a matter of fact, it's almost as windy now as I remember seeing it here for Dennis and Cindy. I guess the worst of the wind will depend on the track of Katrina and weather or not she stays far to the west of us. No doubt, we are in for some nasty weather here regardless. It looks like the first rainbands are just south of us. My hubby just got back from Dauphin Island, and the water is already up a lot there............... and it's not even here yet !


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Pamie
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #51499 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:08 PM

I just want to say a quick Thanks to this site. My cousin lives in New Orleans and reading the information you all have been posting. He got out last night with no traffic. ~~ He drove to my Aunt's in Atlanta.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: mbfly]
      #51500 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:11 PM

Quote:

Quote:

A friend in Mobile just asked me a question regarding wind direction...
Could someone qualified please take a gander at what direction folks in Mobile can expect wind from
Thanks in advance!

-Cara






I can tell you that right now, we are getting some pretty good gusts of wind out of the southeast. As a matter of fact, it's almost as windy now as I remember seeing it here for Dennis and Cindy. I guess the worst of the wind will depend on the track of Katrina and weather or not she stays far to the west of us. No doubt, we are in for some nasty weather here regardless. It looks like the first rainbands are just south of us. My hubby just got back from Dauphin Island, and the water is already up a lot there............... and it's not even here yet !


Maybe it is just me,But if I lived in Mobile I would leave.The strength and size of it and the fact it could still shift more east would have me packing.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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bn765
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #51501 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:14 PM

This thing just looks like it keeps getting better by the second.....does anyone think that at the 2PM advisory the winds will be increased?? I have a feeling they might.

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GEORGIA GIRL
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: bn765]
      #51502 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:17 PM

It's really impressive. I agree with you. It wouldn't suprise me at all. I keep thinking that at some point it has to weaken some. Maybe that's just wishful thinking. I hope not.

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Bruce
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Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #51503 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:17 PM

Just a quick post. Since 30% of the US gas comes in through LA, I would fill up my tank, gas prices could go up to over $5.00 a gallon in the next couple of days.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: Bruce]
      #51504 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:18 PM

I've opened up the Chat link on the left. Although I'll be around, most of my time is spent tweaking the site and researching Katrina.

Others are there as well.


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Hugh
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: bn765]
      #51505 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:19 PM

Quote:

This thing just looks like it keeps getting better by the second.....does anyone think that at the 2PM advisory the winds will be increased?? I have a feeling they might.




Looking at current water vapor - which is (to my untrained eye) significantly more impressive than it was 2 hours ago... I suspect winds MAY be approaching 200, and are probably at least 180. But the last WV imagery does show some denting in the eastern eye.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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javlin
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #51506 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:19 PM

Judging by the flatness on the W side of the storm it appears a slight turn as projected by the GFDL and UKMET might occur.The latest sat from GHCC looks about 26.3N and 88.4W.Saw Frank P debating leaving.

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Myles
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: bn765]
      #51507 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:22 PM

I accually think it looks a little worse off then 6 hours ago. The coldest cloud tops have dimished around the center a little. I doubt it has weakened any, but I think it has reached its peak. I doubt it will weaken much, if any, before landfall. However, an ERC would defineltly be a good thing in the next 6-12 hours. Then it should still be in the middle of it during landfall. Not much of a help, but about the most one can hope for.

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Ryan
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Get Out [Re: Myles]
      #51508 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:26 PM

if the track follows the NHC track i would definatley evacuate now if i was in New Orleans, Grand Isle, Gulfport, Billoxi and Mobile i might if i was in really low lying area.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Myles
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: Myles]
      #51509 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:29 PM

One thing that does look emtremely impressive is the eye. Even though cloud tops have wamred a bit, the accual eye has become much better defined. More circular then before and the stadium affect is visable on any sat you look at. Perhaps this thing could get a little stronger, I hope not, NO is already in for one hell of a storm.

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recmod
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Unbelievable Local Statement From NOLA Weather Service [Re: Clark]
      #51510 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:35 PM

I know everyone can access the links on the front page of this thread to read all the official bulletins and local statements being issued by the NHC and various National Weather Service offices. But, when I read this excerpt from the 10:00 am New Orleans National Weather Service Local Statement, I was stunned. I have never seen such a graphic expression (from an official source!) of the expected devastation from any hurricane. For those who have not taken the time to browse through the informative links provided, I cut-and-pasted this excerpt....read for yourself and pray that something intervenes to save New Orleans from this fate:

Quote from the National Weather Service, New Orleans:
Quote:

HURRICANE Katrina...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.




Incredibly sobering.....

--Lou


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GLT
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: Myles]
      #51511 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:36 PM

A guy on TWC said the FEMA had modeled a 4 or 5 direct hit on NO and said there would be 40-60,000 casulties.

GET OUT.

GLT


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: Myles]
      #51512 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:37 PM

The President comments on Katrina just aired. The Iraq Comments were much longer in time though... This is going to be big event in history. hope all is safe

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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josh
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Re: Unbelievable Local Statement From NOLA Weather Service [Re: recmod]
      #51513 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:37 PM

I don't know if this is the time or the place to discuss this, but if Katrina gets any stronger could it be the strongest storm ever recorded?

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FloydRTurbo
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Re: Unbelievable Local Statement From NOLA Weather Service [Re: josh]
      #51514 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:43 PM

Doubtful, if you look the NHC page on the left hand side there is a list for the most costliest, deadliest, and most intense. Katrina has a ways to go yet, especially when compared to Pacific cyclones. But it could be a record in the Gulf

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Unbelievable Local Statement From NOLA Weather Service [Re: recmod]
      #51515 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:44 PM

Live Streaming View out of WWL TV in New Orleans:

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad


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bigpapi
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Re: Unbelievable Local Statement From NOLA Weather Service [Re: recmod]
      #51516 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:44 PM

That NWS exerpt is extremely sobering. My question is, I know the Superdome is made of concrete, but has it been tested to withstand 175 mph winds? Once again that exerpt makes one think nothing is safe wherever this comes ashore.

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damejune2
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Re: Unbelievable Local Statement From NOLA Weather Service [Re: josh]
      #51518 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:46 PM

I don't know.....the no name storm in the Keys and Galveston may rank higher - not sure. This is the strongest i have ever seen a storm get. I mean 175 MPH is just insane. Know whats more insane? I went to the ABC News channel web site for NO and they are like so out of date. On their main page they have a story about Katrina still being near Florida and how it's going to hit the panhandle. It's got to be a few days old. Maybe that stations employees left town.....not sure, but it's scary that they havent updated anything since Thursday or Friday.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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VG
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: MikeC]
      #51519 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:47 PM

#101 Published Sunday August 27, 2005 at 12:30 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

Sorry folks but I lost my web server at around 1:00 am EDT this morning and cannot update my weather forecasting website and It could not be worse timing.

At the 8:00 am EDT advisory Hurricane Katrina was updated to a CAT 5 tropical cyclone with a sustained wind of 160 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of 26.81". It underwent incredible strengthening during the overnight hours after the ERC ended.

As of the 11:00 am EDT advisory CAT 5 Katrina has a sustained wind of 175 mph with gusts exceeding 200 mph, is at position 26.0 deg. N 88.6 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 26.78"" and is currently on a WNW heading at a speed of 12 mph. Right now Katrina is as strong as CAT 5 Camille was in 1969, only much larger.

I still think that Katrina will turn NW-N-NE and pass just east of the Mississippi River Delta due to the influence of the strengthening and digging mid level longwave trough current located over the Central Plains region. But this will still threaten the Louisiana Delta with total inundation as well as on the east side of the City Of New Orleans.

I continue to see no reason to change my landfall forecast "appreciably", one that has been in effect since Friday evening 08/26/05, of between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL on Monday 08/29/05.

However I will now shift the landfall window a little to the west, of Pascagoula, MS on the left side and Navarre, FL on the right side, with the bulls eye along the Alabama-Florida border. But due to the size of this tropical cyclone the damage window will extend from Morgan CIty, LA in the west to Apalachicola, FL in the east, on early Monday morning 08/29/05.

As far as I know there have been no mandatory evacuations ordered along the Alabama coast eastward to the western Florida panhandle, so a horrific human catastrophe may occur. If Katrina were to hold her present strength then we would be looking at an incredible storm surge of 28-32 feet just to the right of the eyewall at landfall. Some of the surge may also reach the west coast of the Florida peninsula too.

Even the intensity forecast has now become difficult. It is very hard for a tropical cyclone to hold at a strong CAT 5 level for very long but she is so strong that she may only weaken back to a weak CAT 5 (oxymoron) at landfall. But as she leaves the loop current, enters shallower shelf waters and dry air entrainment and wind shear increases, she may weaken back to a CAT 4 at landfall. But a CAT 4 will still cause catastrophic damage.

By the way the NHC/TPC has extended a tropical storm warning eastward to Indian Pass, FL well east of Panama City and outside the forecast track error cone, also westward to Cameron, LA. That tells you just how large this tropical cyclone is!!!

--------------------
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA


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oil trader
Weather Watcher


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Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: Bruce]
      #51520 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:49 PM

Quote:

Just a quick post. Since 30% of the US gas comes in through LA, I would fill up my tank, gas prices could go up to over $5.00 a gallon in the next couple of days.




Not $5.00, but the national average gas price would be between $3.00 to $4.00, $0.50 higher at least from friday in every part of the country. President Bush just finished his speech and said nothing about how the Administration is going to address the consecuences. By next week end Katrina will not be only a LA and MS event but a Global Kaos.


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Sportsfreak1989s
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Loc: Lafayette, Louisiana
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #51521 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:58 PM

Please help me ya'll. I live in Lafayette Louisiana and was wondering exactly what to do. Now that Katrina is now at 175 MPH and 200 + Gusts. I would like to know can this thing come my way still??? WHat do I do?? If in fact it does hit New Orleans how much damage can I expect??? Please help me.

THANKS and all my prayers go out to everyone within this things path.

you're over in lafayette.. well west of where this thing is supposed to go. winds will probably get to tropical storm force for a while where you are.. the hurricane would have to swing wide to the left to give you hurricane force. you should be ok. maybe power out/tree damage. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:41 PM)


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MrSpock
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Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: oil trader]
      #51522 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:02 PM

If anyone is in an evacuation area, GET OUT NOW.

I would also like to point out that it is not only the people at the coast that needs to leave. This will be a hurricane well inland, and will take some time to spin down. The right front quadrant will also likely have many tornados in addition to flooding rains. Last year we saw deaths from Ivan as far north as Virginia. Even after this is well inland, daytime heating will cause locally severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes during this week as the instability from daytime heating works in tandem with the vorticity the storm will still have. It is understandable to focus on the areas that will be hit the hardest, but I just wanted to remind everyone that being 500 miles inland doesn't necessarily protect you either.
Also, our thoughts and prayers are with all of you. At church this morning, you all were included in our intentions.


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CrestviewBRM
Registered User


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Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: MrSpock]
      #51523 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:05 PM

I just got word that there is now a mandatory evacuation for all costal areas of Okaloosa County, FL.

http://www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/news_updates.asp?ID=115

Edited by CrestviewBRM (Sun Aug 28 2005 01:07 PM)


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Psyber
Weather Guru


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Re: Wind Directions [Re: bn765]
      #51524 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:05 PM

There's no reason to think that the winds will decrease. There's just nothing there to slow it down...if anything the water temperatures could maintain the current speeds almost all the way into land.

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Marianne
Registered User


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Re: Wind Directions [Re: Psyber]
      #51526 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:10 PM

Even here in North Alabama we are worried about what will happen on Tuesday.

Hoping everyone stays safe....this one is a monster.


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MrSpock
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Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: oil trader]
      #51527 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:10 PM

Unfortunately supply will be constrained and demand will be high, and there is nothing that can be done except to prevent/police gougers.

This is off topic (a little, so please forgive me), but with what has been happening the last 10 years with the multi-decadal shift in the North Atlantic, and the fact that it is likely to continue for another 10 or 20 years, this is a tough problem to address. In 1984 there were some 340 refineries in the US with a much lower population. Now, there are half as many refineries, with a much larger world population (China) taking up much oil, thus much higher prices. If there is any good that can come out of all of this, is that hopefully there will be a greater push for other sources of energy, that are cleaner, and not as easy to disrupt as they are currently. I also don't like comparisons to gas prices 30 years ago. Yes, inflation adjusted it was much higher then, but I never bought gas back then, so it is irrevelent to me. Also, even those that did, are not budgeted for higher prices today just because they had to 30 years ago.

Even if gas is higher, I think it is still wise to fill up if you can find it. I would much rather gamble at a casino, than with a cat 5, as my chances are better at the casino.

Edited by MrSpock (Sun Aug 28 2005 01:13 PM)


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BobVee
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Sportsfreak1989s]
      #51528 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:19 PM

You are within the cone. You should be leaving if you live in a structure that is susceptible to high winds. Even if the storm center passes well east you will undoubtedly have hurricane force winds. If you have trees around you those will probably fall onto your house. I cannot comment on water issues, not knowing your elevations but can certainly say with some certainty to expect flooding and rain penetration through windows, eaves, doors, etc. Wind borne debris is a major, major problem.

My advise. Go! It is not worth your or your family's lives. God bless.


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damejune2
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Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: MrSpock]
      #51529 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:22 PM

TWC just said that the Superdome in New Orleans would be used as a shelter - i am assuming it can wtihstand pretty high winds. They also interviewed several people in that area and you know what? They can't leave!!! They have no car and or no money; some where around 100,000 people without transportation and or money. Thats terrible! NO was going to have pick up points in the city and give those folks rides to the Superdome. Thats nice of them.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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OrlandoDan
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Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Wind Directions [Re: Marianne]
      #51530 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:23 PM

I was just watching MSNBC (Or Fox - can't recall). They said they are expecting the worst case scenario now. Yes - EXPECTING. They said if the eye goes just east of NO, then Lake Poncitrain (spelling?) will experience the northerly winds of the western side of the eywall and dump right into the city. The pumps run ondiesel or electric and then expect to run out of diesel. The water will not naturally drain and it will be days and weeks before water is pumped out.

Again, Live streaming video out of NO:
http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: damejune2]
      #51531 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:27 PM

pressure has not changed at all, and the center is displaced a bit from the flight center, and the eye has expanded just a bit with warming cloud tops in the last few hours--the storm has likely leveled off and will hopefully begin a weakening trend within 6-12 hours

as for landfall i am expecting Marsh Island, which is between New Orleans and Cameron--the eye has been wobbling; it is currently moving NW and is SSE of New Orleans, and the center, if anything, has wobbled to the west a bit in the last hour


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bucagator
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: BobVee]
      #51532 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:31 PM

Good luck to everyone on the Northern Gulf Coast. After surviving direct hits from Charley, Frances, and Jeanne last year I wouldn't wish this on anyone. If you are still undecided about evacuation, consider this tidbit from a Fox News viewer. It seems he went through Betsy, Camille, and Audrey while stationed in New Orleans as a weatherman and later in the military. His most vivid memory was the number of bodies that survived the storm (didn't drown, get crushed, electrocuted, etc.) only to have to share isolated spots of dry ground with snakes. He said the snakes always won! You are in our prayers.

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LisaMaria65
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: BobVee]
      #51533 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:31 PM

Actually, Lafayette, La is not within the cone. We are just to the left a bit.
I am also in Lafayette. IF it continues on the path that experts predict, we will more than likely experience rain and some tropical storm winds. If you life in an area that is prone to flooding, you might want to prepare for that. Power outages will be likely, at least in my area, off Verot School Road. Every time we get a minor thunderstorm, we seem to lose it.

You might want to remove light items that are outdoors that could blow around and you would want to make sure you have some bottled water in case of power outages. I don't see a need for evactuaing unless you live in a mobile home, however.

--------------------
Lived through Betsy ('65), Camile ('69), Edith ('71), Carmen ('74), Danny ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05), Gustav ('08)....Who's next?


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KimmieL
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Sportsfreak1989s]
      #51534 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:32 PM

SportsFreak, you should be ok if it stays on the projected path, some wind and rain. If it continues further west than expected, you might get a little more bad weather. Just stay tuned to your local tv and radio station, they will tell you what to do and what to expect. God bless, Kimmie

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susieq
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: KimmieL]
      #51535 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:39 PM

The 1:00 advisory is out. Slight drop in pressure.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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collegemom
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #51536 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:40 PM

Son at FIT in Melbourne near Ed . I live in Arkansas, west of the Rock. After the third one last year I was amazed at the out of state plates that stayed here for weeks and weeks. I don't have much money, but if someone needs a safe dry place for a week or two while things settle down I have a spare bedroom to offer.

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: collegemom]
      #51537 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:44 PM

Jason Kelly, a met blogger here, and met at WGHG in Panama City Beach is assisting in a Mississippi coastline station wTOK Here

Video may be having problems, though.


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WeatherNut
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: susieq]
      #51539 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:51 PM

That pressure is 3 milibars below Camille, so if it is that strong at landfall it will be second only to the Labor Day storm in the 30's correct?
camille bottomed out at 905.. same as mitch back in 1998. a single millibar doesn't make a huge difference. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:45 PM)


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BTfromAZ
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Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: damejune2]
      #51540 - Sun Aug 28 2005 01:57 PM

Anyone who has been to New Olreans knows that it has a lot of poor residents. Any proper planning for a mandatory evacuation would have to involve planning for moving those people out of town: busses and so on. If they are not doing that, it is inexcusable IMHO. As for the Superdome, while I am not a structural engineer. I have seen this structure many times and would not want to shelter from a cat 5 storm in it myself. Its only advantage I can see is that it is large. other wise, it is just as subject to flooding as any other structure in the downtown NO area and I personally really wonder about that dome in this kind of storm.

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LoisCane
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question on Superdome.. please explain [Re: MikeC]
      #51541 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:00 PM

I've heard this before and seen it used as the last chance place to go but don't understand how it works.

Wouldn't the Superdome fill up with water? Wouldn't the water inside (if it does happen) put a lot of stress on it structurally? The city has obviously done models and checked this out but confirm to me that if the city does flood.. the field and parts of the Superdome would flood as well?

Imagine others around the country are trying to figure this out as well and wondering .. so I am asking.

Also.. amazed that people are being told to go east to get out of town because west I-10 is a mess as are roads going north. This has to be the first time I have heard people being told to get out and go towards an area under Hurricane Warning. Imagine it shows the total desperation to get people out of New Orleans.. even into the frying pan out of the Bowl.

Thanks for explaining how this plan was devised to use SuperDome.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Magic Hat
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: susieq]
      #51542 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:02 PM

okay! Windows on south and east sides are covered. Porch is mostly cleaned off. still need to move the campers to the north side of the house. Have plenty of food and water. This house survived a direct hit from Camille before it was moved east 32 miles and I rebuilt it. Wood frame with 1x12 wood interior walls on reinforced cement pilings. Expect to lose the porch on the west side and maybe on the north. Hope we don't lose the addition on the east side. Hubby is bobtailing the big rig home. Guess we'll set it in the middle of the pasture. At least no chance of flooding on this hill. Daughter just got her first new car. Man, the timing!!
We're about 35 miles north of Pascagoula and 4 miles west of the MS/AL line. Will let all know what happens soon as we can.
Praying all will survive. Property can be rebuilt. People can't!
God bless,
Lula


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nate77
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Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #51543 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:02 PM

They had a guy on CNN from the City of New Orleans. He said that he doesnt have any clue on weather the Superdome can handle this type storm, but I remember reading somewhere that it was built to handle 200 MPH winds.

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BTfromAZ
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: MikeC]
      #51544 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:09 PM

TWC just mentioned that the central pressure of Andrew as it came ashore was 922 MB and compared to Katrina's current 906. Wow!

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #51545 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:11 PM

Does anyone have the 14:00 EDT discussion yet?

They do not post intermediate discussions unless something drastic changes. There is only a 2p public advisory this go around, available now on the NHC's website and at left, with no large change to the intensity or track. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:17 PM)


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Miami Beach, FLA USA
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #51546 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:12 PM

This storm is going to make Andrew look like a joke...it's like 3 times the size of Andrew and 20 mph stronger sustained winds....if you are within 100 miles of eye landfall, you should be evacuating....I survived Andrew and I would strongly suggest getting out of this storm's path...you will regret staying behind. It is 13 years later and I still do.

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BTfromAZ
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Re: Gas Prices due to Katrina [Re: nate77]
      #51547 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:17 PM

Here's a discussion: http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl092304thanh.1295648.html . Since they don't appear to be sure and since they aren't even sure about 130 MPH winds, this could be tragic.

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ftlaudbob
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super dome [Re: nate77]
      #51548 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:24 PM

This is a great artical on the Super Dome and the question,can it withstand a hurricane.A must read now. http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl092304thanh.1295648.html

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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stormchazer
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Re: super dome [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #51549 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:28 PM

Was just reading the article. Unfortunately there seems to be a lot of "hope that it can" but no "study that it can" withstand a Cat III or above. I guess they are going to give it a live field test. I hope the results are not tragic, but in this case, it maybe the only shelter that a lot of folks have.

--------------------
Jara

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emackl
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Re: super dome [Re: stormchazer]
      #51550 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:35 PM

NWC just said pressure is 902! Could that be. Good God. HOw frightning.

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Hootowl
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New update [Re: stormchazer]
      #51551 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:36 PM

TWC just said 902mb with 184mph winds. I can't even begint to imagine the destruction.
God bless all.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: New update [Re: Hootowl]
      #51552 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:39 PM

This is unreal. It continues to strengthen with no sign of weakening. Wow.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Hawkeyewx
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Re: New update [Re: Hootowl]
      #51553 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:39 PM

Quote:

TWC just said 902mb with 184mph winds. I can't even begint to imagine the destruction.
God bless all.




The Weather Channel's reporting of 184 mph is misleading. That is just the latest max flight level wind found by the recon plane. The surface wind has not changed from 175 mph... not that it makes much difference at this point.


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Big Red Machine
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #51554 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:41 PM

Pressure just dropped to 902 according to deputy director of NHC.

Oh my.



Oops, sorry for the double post, was beaten to the punch.

Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:42 PM)


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Shan
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Re: New update [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #51555 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:45 PM

Just some news from southern Mobile county. Gov. Riley has issued a mandatory evac. for zone 1 in southern Mobile county.

--------------------
Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL


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TheElNino
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Re: Wind Directions [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #51556 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:49 PM

With another drop of 2mb I expect the winds to increase a bit more..

Edited by TheElNino (Sun Aug 28 2005 02:50 PM)


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pryord1
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: VG]
      #51557 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:49 PM

Do you really believe that Katrina will make such a sharp right turn? What would cause that?If so, that's a scary thought. We really aren't that prepared here in the Panhandle for a direct hit. It looks to me like the storm is so powerful that is has staved off the effects of the trough. Is that possible?

Thanks for the info.

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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LoisCane
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Re: super dome built when?? in 1970s? [Re: stormchazer]
      #51558 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:50 PM

It's an old building. Have very little faith in it... for something like this. One strong microburst in the vicinity of the Superdome ala Andrew except here a microburst would be what??? 215mph? 220mph? One small vortex with twisters and you tell me that place is a safe place to store thousands of poor souls with no where to go?

Should be a way to get them out of the city..anywhere but there.

Thanks for article. Read it before and that was really why I asked because I would think someone has done studies to see what it can withstand ... just don't think it's a good plan.

Prayers to everyone there and if you had more hard data on any studies done..like to see them.

Also.. anyone have any good sites with links to localized water temps to see if there is anywhere there that the water is cooler than other places.. any chance it will go down in intensity just a little?

lastly... read however that the pressure dropped.. again.

so much for all of us thinking she had leveled off on intensity

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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TDW
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Re: New update [Re: Shan]
      #51559 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:51 PM

I'm zone 3 in Mobile, but this is a new thing for us and I'm not sure if most people know their zones. There has been a lot of discussion in Mobile that leads me to believe people are not taking this seriously. They seem to think it is all N.O.

Mark Sudduth on his web site even said "Once away from the water, my goal is to find somewhere where we can actually get below ground. That's how bad this could be. " For someone that has been through the storms he has, everyone should take note.

--------------------
"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"


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Shan
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Re: New update [Re: TDW]
      #51560 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:55 PM

I totally agree. People in the Mobile area are not taking this seriously. The local news is saying cat. 5 storm surge along the immediate coast here with cat. 1 or cat. 2 winds. I was 9 when Fredrick came through and havne't forgotten it. I'm afraid the damage here from Katrina could be just as bad as Freddy was.

--------------------
Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL


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WeatherNut
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Re: New update [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #51561 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:56 PM Attachment (226 downloads)

I feel pretty positive we are looking at an Annular Hurricane such as Isabel in 2003 (attached). These are extremely rare in the Atlantic Basin. These storms do not go through ERC (from what I am reading) as quickly as other hurricanes normally would. I am guessing because after the last EWR the eye was so large it takes some time to contract inward (which it looks like it is still doing). This is the link I have been reading (about a third of the way down).

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=19418&st=0

The scary thing about annular hurricanes is they are slow to spin down as long as conditions remain the same. Isabel as an example was a Cat5 storm for about 48hrs. Interesting reading as we are seeing something in action that is rarely ever seen. I think the stat was .08% of Atlantic hurricanes become annular

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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HanKFranK
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hoping for ERCs, but not counting on 'em [Re: Shan]
      #51562 - Sun Aug 28 2005 02:56 PM

there is no silver lining, but it's good that the cloud tops have cooled some since this morning. don't think Katrina will do more than level off and slowly weaken from here on in. that's historically what one would expect. the SSTs are upper 80s and aren't going to change... the dry air feed is light and roughly the same... and the upper westerlies seem to be bowing to the storm rather than the storm bowing to it. i'd expect the hurricane to have spun down at least to a borderline 4/5 at landfall, because it's just not normal for a hurricane that strong and large to keep it's intensity steady. it should slowly erode back in the fashion that Ivan did.. i don't see any ERCs on the way because the eye is large and the eyewall solid.
forecast track, unfortunately, looks correct. assuming it is correct, which i do... it should come in just east of grand isle, move up just east of new orleans metro. ponchatrain should be in the city tomorrow afternoon. since the eye is large, areas like bay st louis and gulfport are going to get torn up pretty badly. biloxi and pascagoula will likely see serious damage as well.. places like houma and mobile less so, but still a significant impact. hurricane force winds will extend well inland into mississippi...i wouldn't be surprised if they get as far inland as columbus or even tupelo. the official has it as a tropical storm practically to kentucky, and that looks right as well.
the fairy godmother likes to show up at the last minute with these things. keep your fingers crossed for monday morning. it's something you never really see coming, but Dennis, Ivan, and Frances were all less than they could have been.
HF 1856z28august


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stormchazer
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Re: hoping for ERCs, but not counting on 'em [Re: HanKFranK]
      #51563 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:01 PM

Latest pressure is 902mb.

678
URNT12 KNHC 281825
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/1755Z
B. 26 DEG 20 MIN N
88 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2242 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 140 DEG 160 KT
G. 050 DEG 22 NM
H. 902 MB
I. 14 C/ 3050 M
J. 29 C/ 3064 M
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 1234/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1812A Katrina OB 05
MAX FL WIND 160 KTS NE QUAD 1743Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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WeatherNut
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Re: hoping for ERCs, but not counting on 'em [Re: stormchazer]
      #51565 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:05 PM

Does anyone know off hand what Gilberts lowest pressure was? I think it was pre-Yucatan What is the record low pressure for the GOM? We must be close

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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jr928
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Re: hoping for ERCs, but not counting on 'em [Re: HanKFranK]
      #51566 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:07 PM

it is obvious that the westerlies are backing off a bit which may still give a north turn but ne, doubt it. the westerlies were nearly across jxn, ms this am and now they're back to east part of louisiana. This should concern the track later today.

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VolusiaMike
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Re: hoping for ERCs, but not counting on 'em [Re: WeatherNut]
      #51567 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:08 PM

Gilbert was 888 mb

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StormHound
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Re: hoping for ERCs, but not counting on 'em [Re: stormchazer]
      #51568 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:08 PM

The mayor said this morning that the SuperDome could handle winds up to 200 mph.

He also mentioned that there were other buildings available as a *backup* plan. Given the long lines of people waiting to get into the SuperDome, I'd say they should already have the backup plan, and the backup plan to the backup plan in place. I feel like I am watching one of those weather horror movies. The scientist keeps telling officials to keep moving, and the officials keep saying, "We're looking into it". I hope they know more than I do.

-- unless you have scientific proof that a shelter won't provide the protection that the Mayor has said it could, please don't give suggest otherwise for the saftey of others. Thank you.

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 28 2005 03:23 PM)


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LI Phil
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back on duty... [Re: WeatherNut]
      #51569 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:09 PM

gilbert was 888

i just got back home after being basically away from computer access, but, aside from a quick couple of errands, will be on as much as possible...of course, anyone who is ANYWHERE NEAR where she will make landfall should already be GONE...will try to get any reports, SLOSH maps, shelter info, etc. anyone may need...

HOLY $+!#...

the superdome...can anyone believe we're actually talking about it NOT being able to survive?

OK...i'll be in and out for the next couple...but once i get back i'm here for the long haul...

TSFH II...it's way past BUCKLE UP time...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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mbfly
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Re: New update [Re: Shan]
      #51570 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:10 PM

Quote:

I totally agree. People in the Mobile area are not taking this seriously. The local news is saying cat. 5 storm surge along the immediate coast here with cat. 1 or cat. 2 winds.




I see the same. No one in our neighborhood has boarded their house except us !! Right now, the skies are starting to look a little dark and I'm thinking about getting a generator while they still have some !!


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WeatherNut
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Re: hoping for ERCs, but not counting on 'em [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #51571 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:10 PM

Thanks...thats the all time lowest isn't it? It was not that deep in the GOM as I recall. In this year of infamous hurricane records, it just seems another one could fall

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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LI Phil
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gilbert [Re: WeatherNut]
      #51573 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:12 PM

Quote:

Thanks...thats the all time lowest isn't it? It was not that deep in the GOM as I recall. In this year of infamous hurricane records, it just seems another one could fall




gilbert was the lowest in the ATL basin, yes

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ron Basso
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: pryord1]
      #51574 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:13 PM

Don't think it'll make a sharp right turn but looking at the latest water vapor there is a vigorous trough now punching into west TX. There have been a series of troughs swinging thru the last day or so, but this latest one looks more potent. The overall cloud shield of KAT is starting to elongate N-S which means that she is starting to come under the influence of the trough. This may be a good thing in that perhaps KAT will start encountering increasing shear as she moves north of 28N. At this point, its really academic where the actual landfall will be with such a massive storm. Latest 12Z GFDL brings her in right along NHC's projected path about the LA/MISS border. The GFDL does weaken her slightly going from 147 kts to 127 kts - really immaterial when your talkin that high.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10

--------------------
RJB


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WeatherNut
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Re: back on duty... [Re: LI Phil]
      #51575 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:14 PM

I dont think the "weather disaster" movies could be as bad as whats about to happen in NO. Also, they say it can withstand 200mph winds. I would think there would be gusts WELL over 200mph if sustained are 175

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Clark
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Re: hoping for ERCs, but not counting on 'em [Re: WeatherNut]
      #51576 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:14 PM

Gilbert's lowest pressure was 888mb, the current record for the Atlantic Basin. Next up is the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane at 892mb; Allen (1980) is the only other storm <900mb in the basin, reaching a minimum pressure of 899mb. At 902mb, Katrina is now the 4th strongest hurricane in recorded history in the Atlantic basin, having surpassed both Mitch and Camille at 905mb.

If Katrina were to make landfall at a pressure <909mb, it would be the second most intense hurricane to do so in recorded history. As it stands, Katrina will be the 4th category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States in recorded history, along with Camille, Andrew, and the aforementioned 1935 Fl. Keys hurricane.

--------------------
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nate77
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Re: hoping for ERCs, but not counting on 'em [Re: WeatherNut]
      #51577 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:17 PM

I thought the labor day storm of 1935 had the lowest registered pressure at 992mb?

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WiscoWx
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Re: hoping for ERCs, but not counting on 'em [Re: stormchazer]
      #51578 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:19 PM

That's one of the problems, isn't it? The longer Katrina maintains this intensity or even winds up an mb or two, the higher her base level when she does start to come down from her peak. It is very, very hard to see how she can be anything except a 4 or 5 when she landfalls.

Another, post-landfall, problem is that with her size and intensity causing so much regional destruction...even well inland, it will impede relief getting to New Orleans if NO does take a direct impact. I would have to think that the feds may need to consider parking a naval group in the northern gulf after Katrina comes through to support the relief effort. Last I knew, the Bataan group was in the Antilles a week ago.


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clyde w.
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TD #13 [Re: TDW]
      #51579 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:19 PM

There are more important things to be worried about today, but wanted to point out that TD #13 has formed east of the Lesser Antilles. NRL site has it listed as 13NONAME.

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tpratch
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Re: hoping for ERCs, but not counting on 'em [Re: nate77]
      #51580 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:20 PM

Nate, the 892, was the lowest pressure of a U.S. landfall.

As mentioned, there have been lower pressures hit while over open water.

Katrina is just plain nasty.


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Clark
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Ron Basso]
      #51581 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:21 PM

I would take dynamical model intensity forecasts with a grain of salt at this point. Many of them have a spin-up time needed to accurately represent the storm and can thus weaken it more than realistically expected/probable in the first 12-24hr of the model cycle. With Katrina near 24hr from landfall, the model forecasts of intensity become increasingly less reliable from here on out. Granted, it should weaken somewhat before landfall,

The trough in Texas, to me at least, appears to be narrowing in scope and having a hard time approaching the storm. As it moves inland and weakens, the trough should capture it, but it's going to be a tough call as to how much it affects the storm now. Note that these narrow troughs tend to not impact storms in anything but a positive manner; it is the classic setup for rapid intensification or is a marker of such a cycle that has already passed. Here, it's likely the latter.

Needless to say, anywhere +/- 50mi of New Orleans is very much still under the gun for a direct impact. For those who missed it earlier, a summary of the potential impacts for many areas can be found on the front page in my most recent Met Blog.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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twizted sizter
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Clark]
      #51582 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:26 PM

Listening to Fox News...Shephard Smith on Bourbon St...stupid...at a bar that he said was packed full of people partying..stupid.

can they really not care/ignore/think nothing will happen?

Oh my bastardi is on as well...he must be hyped having his NO storm...I mean nothing bad that statement mods...those who watch/listen to him know what I mean.

Edited by twizted sizter (Sun Aug 28 2005 03:36 PM)


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Lysis
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: twizted sizter]
      #51585 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:36 PM

It isn’t that difficult to believe. “Hurricanes don’t hit here”… “Hurricanes are no big deal… it’s all a big media ploy to get higher ratings”…

I hear it all the time. Aside from this, few of you here can even understand what a category five is like. This is an abhorrent situation, and I am sick to my stomach thinking about it.

Unfortunately, you cannot make people understand something like this.
“Get the hell out” is right.
: (

EDIT: For those of you watching Fox… you are probably listening to dead men talking. This is truly inane.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Sun Aug 28 2005 03:44 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Clark]
      #51586 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:38 PM

Clark,
If Kat does exactly what the models say on the main page of this forum, say the UKMET. With the storm at a Cat 5 level, at land fall, will the angle of the storm still go the direction of the model or will the impact change the direction, I am truly envisioning a spinning top bouncing off objects in its way and in this case the shores and the buildings etc, breaking some of the wind flow, Or will the atmosphere have changed or is this information that is going to be found out on a moment by moment observation.? We in Florida never knew the extent of inland damage until Charley came along.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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VG
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: MikeC]
      #51588 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:41 PM

#102 Published Sunday August 27, 2005 at 3:30 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

Sorry folks but I lost my web server at around 1:00 am EDT this morning and could not update my weather forecasting website. It could not be worse timing too. I just got it back online at 3:15 pm EDT.

As of the 2:00 pm EDT advisory CAT 5 Katrina continues with a sustained wind of 175 mph with gusts exceeding 200 mph, is at position 26.5 deg. N 88.6 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 26.75" and is currently on a NW heading at a speed of 13 mph. Looking at latest satellite imagery she appears to be on a NNW heading or 350 deg. but this could be a trochoidal wobble. Right now Katrina is as strong as CAT 5 Camille was in 1969, only much larger.

I still think that Katrina will turn NNW-N-NNE and pass just east of the Mississippi River Delta due to the influence of the strengthening and digging mid level longwave trough current located over the Central Plains region. But this will still threaten the Louisiana Delta with total inundation as well as on the east side of the City Of New Orleans.

My current landfall window continues at Pascagoula, MS on the left side and Navarre, FL on the right side, with the bulls eye along the Alabama-Florida border. But due to the size of this tropical cyclone the damage window will extend from Morgan CIty, LA in the west to Apalachicola, FL in the east on early Monday morning 08/29/05.

I'm now hearing of some mandatory evacuations being ordered along the Alabama coast eastward to the western Florida panhandle, so a horrific human catastrophe may be averted. If Katrina were to hold her present strength then we would be looking at an incredible storm surge of 15-20 feet, with some spots seeing 28-32 feet just to the right of the eyewall at landfall. Some of the surge may also reach the west coast of the Florida peninsula too.

It takes a special set of circumstances for a CAT 5 tropical cyclone to form and it is very hard for a tropical cyclone to hold at a strong CAT 5 level for very long. But she is so strong that she may only weaken back to a weak CAT 5 (oxymoron) at landfall. But at some point she will undergo another eye wall reformation cycle (ERC), will leave the very warm loop current, enter shallower shelf water and dry air entrainment and wind shear will increase and she may weaken back to a CAT 4 at landfall. But a CAT 4 will still cause catastrophic damage.

--------------------
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Lysis]
      #51589 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:42 PM

Lysis...survived...use that word because that's what I did...a Cat5...Andrew...in a closet. When it was safe to come out the closet & part of 2 walls were all that were left...it's not something I'd ever want to experience again or wish on anyone else either.Move inland only to have 3 on me last yr.

The mindset of some blows my mind...I hope they realize emergency services will not be running after a certain point...and possibly for a while afterwards.


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Jeffmidtown
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: twizted sizter]
      #51590 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:42 PM

Hey everyone.....

I was either watching CNN or TWC and they said that 175mph sustained winds is equivalent to an F-3 Tornado on the Fujita scale....

They're already talking about Tornado Watches here in Atlanta tomorrow night....

God speed to everyone on the gulf and everyone in NoLa.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Lysis]
      #51593 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:43 PM

Here in Pensacola we have sustained winds of 29mph and gusts to 35....tides are up and nearly covering the rebuilt docks along Santa Rosa Sound. Good radar presentation from NO shows the eye. I know movement is difficult on radar, but it looks about 320/330 at this time. Barring a north/northeast turn or jog, this is just like the case study done by FEMA for NO, exceot the storm is much stronger.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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ralphfl
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: pcola]
      #51595 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:49 PM

Ok does anyone see the north turn? if it dont soon then it is going to west LA once it goes past 90 west.

I have not seen the north turn yet doe sanyone see it? if not in the next few then N.O might get off the hook.

ralph, why is the NHC wrong? they've been hitting their forecast track pretty closely since they switched from the panhandle. unfortunately i think they've got this one figured out just about right... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:13 PM)


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Ron Basso
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: pcola]
      #51596 - Sun Aug 28 2005 03:50 PM

Last hour or so KAT has moved N-NW - it may be a wobble but its nail biting time watching every radar & SAT image.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10

--------------------
RJB


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Ron Basso]
      #51600 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:05 PM

Quote:

Last hour or so KAT has moved N-NW - it may be a wobble but its nail biting time watching every radar & SAT image.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10




Katrina is right on, or maybe just a tad west of the official track. This is about right.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: Ron Basso]
      #51601 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:08 PM

Visible and IR Floater appears to show a slight northerly vecot componenet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Put the IR Loop with Tropical Forecast points. It looks like it is tracking right on the mark

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:25 PM)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #51602 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:12 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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JYarsh
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #51603 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:14 PM

In the last few frames, it looks like Katrina has made the turn to the north, or at least north-northwest. Its staying right on track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #51604 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:15 PM

looks like were about 88.9 and 26.7 on the long range base loop. a little west indeed.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_long.shtml


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #51605 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:16 PM

The storm is steered by a deep-layer flow through the entire atmosphere and surface frictional effects will have little impact on a storm this intense. As it weakens after landfall, the lower-level winds will take over to a greater degree in steering the storm, but that's a different matter than frictional effects along the coastline.

The greater effects from friction will be the potential for tornadoes to the right of the storm track at landfall. The potential is there for a similar scenario tornado-wise as seen with Ivan, just likely a bit further west in the western Fl. Panhandle and Alabama.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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lunkerhunter
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Topography of New Orleans [Re: Clark]
      #51607 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:26 PM Attachment (287 downloads)

the picture says 902 words.
it will be very interesting to see what plays out.


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GulfBreezeFL
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: VG]
      #51608 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:29 PM

Quote:



My current landfall window continues at Pascagoula, MS on the left side and Navarre, FL on the right side, with the bulls eye along the Alabama-Florida border. But due to the size of this tropical cyclone the damage window will extend from Morgan CIty, LA in the west to Apalachicola, FL in the east on early Monday morning 08/29/05.

I'm now hearing of some mandatory evacuations being ordered along the Alabama coast eastward to the western Florida panhandle, so a horrific human catastrophe may be averted. If Katrina were to hold her present strength then we would be looking at an incredible storm surge of 15-20 feet, with some spots seeing 28-32 feet just to the right of the eyewall at landfall. Some of the surge may also reach the west coast of the Florida peninsula too.







Bullseye along the AL/FL border???? Hrmmmmm, do you have an enemy in the Florida Panhandle you are trying to scare?

VG, i think you need to explain a bit more about your theory as it contradicts every model, met i've heard thus far. Otherwise i think his post and this one (mine) should be deleted. Another reason being, the bullseye hitting Mobile/Pcola would basically be a close call for N.O. which unfortunately isn't going to be the case.


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pcola
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: GulfBreezeFL]
      #51610 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:39 PM

Long range radar loop out of NO shows a NNW track but not a great deal of movement. I may be wrong but it looks to be slowing down. This would be a very bad scenario. We are already flooding in NW Florida.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: pcola]
      #51612 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:45 PM

It looks like she is tracking just a few miles West of the forecast track. This is all very bad for NO.

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stormchazer
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: GulfBreezeFL]
      #51613 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:46 PM

Here is where Thomas posted his forecast and reasoning. He also posted it on this board a day or so ago. It may not come to fruition but it is based on expert knowledge and experience. Mr Giella credentials are very good.

Weather Forecasting Blog For Retired Meteorologist Thomas Giella

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


Edited by stormchazer (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:50 PM)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #51615 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:49 PM

The 17:00 EDT is out:

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/wxstatement.php?id=42602


Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:53 PM)


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TDW
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: stormchazer]
      #51616 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:49 PM

Looks like winds are down to 165 mph, not but much better, but it may be the start of something good - relativelt speaking.

--------------------
"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"


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GulfBreezeFL
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: stormchazer]
      #51617 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:50 PM

I'm just saying that if someone were stupid enough to think of VG as the final authority on these things (which is doubtful), and they live in N.O., they might be inclined to ride it out.


Not a good thing, IMHO.


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nate77
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: TDW]
      #51618 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:52 PM

I just saw a projection that still predicts Katrina to hit land at a CAT 4.. With the wind decrese, we can only pray.

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Convergence
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: TDW]
      #51619 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:55 PM

Unfortunately, Cat 5 storms, and especially annular storms, fluctuate quite a bit in terms of windspeed, and since the pressure has continued to drop, I would say that weakening has not occured.

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twizted sizter
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: GulfBreezeFL]
      #51620 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:56 PM

It's too late for anyone still in NO to try to leave now...curfew will be in effect soon & I believe contraflow is stopped already..interstate still looks packed...public trans will shut down.

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tpratch
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: GulfBreezeFL]
      #51621 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:57 PM

VG isn't the final authority, but he used to do this for a living, you know? I think a little more respect to someone who gave us fantastic service might be in order.

That being said, he disclaims his lack of immersion nowadays, and nothing he says should give anyone in NO an excuse to be drinking on Bourbon St. instead of running for their safety.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: nate77]
      #51622 - Sun Aug 28 2005 04:59 PM

Look at this NRL track and its relationship to Lake Poncitrain (sp?):

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/12L.KATRINA/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

Again, if she stays just east of Poncitrain, it is the worst case sceanrio due to the northerly winds dumping the lake into the city.


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Clark
Meteorologist


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New thread [Re: Clark]
      #51623 - Sun Aug 28 2005 05:00 PM

New thread up on the main board.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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jr928
Weather Guru


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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #51624 - Sun Aug 28 2005 05:01 PM

NHC is continuing to fluctuate just a hair west of it's original now twice in two days. It's that trough is no way enough to budge this bad woman until landfall.

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Ron Basso
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: GulfBreezeFL]
      #51625 - Sun Aug 28 2005 05:06 PM

I think if you read Mr. Giella's entire post he says:

But due to the size of this tropical cyclone the damage window will extend from Morgan CIty, LA in the west to Apalachicola, FL in the east on early Monday morning 08/29/05.

He was also concerned about the impacts east of the storm in coastal AL/W FL. Someone with his credentials should not be silenced due to expressing a slightly different opinion. Most people trust the NHC as the ultimate authority.

--------------------
RJB


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Psyber
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Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH [Re: TDW]
      #51630 - Sun Aug 28 2005 05:30 PM

Speed means nothing...the pressure is still dropping like a stone which means that the speed drop could be very temporary...

Quote:

Looks like winds are down to 165 mph, not but much better, but it may be the start of something good - relativelt speaking.




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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Central Arkansas
Re: Wind Directions [Re: collegemom]
      #51652 - Sun Aug 28 2005 06:20 PM

Quote:

Son at FIT in Melbourne near Ed . I live in Arkansas, west of the Rock. After the third one last year I was amazed at the out of state plates that stayed here for weeks and weeks. I don't have much money, but if someone needs a safe dry place for a week or two while things settle down I have a spare bedroom to offer.




--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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