Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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acorrding to radar: farthest tip of "land" of LA is only 25-35 miles away from northern eyewall....
edge of center now starting to show up on 124nm scan of radar : 12:53am cdt
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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SXUS54 KLIX 290535
OSOLIX
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS OBSERVATIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1235 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS OBSERVATIONS
RECEIVED DURING THE LAST HOUR
WIND AIR DEW WTR WTR
STATION DIR SPD PEAK TMP PT TMP LVL PRES
EAST LAKE 48 24 38 79 85
MID LAKE 27 21 28 80 86 2.88
MANDEVILLE 47 15 23 79 75 999.8
WEST LAKE 33 31 40 83 87
LITTLE WOODS 30 13
http://kamala.cod.edu/la/latest.sxus54.KLIX.html
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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...LOUISIANA COASTAL TIDE DATA FOR...MON AUG 29 2005
CALCASIEU PASS...LIGHTHOUSE WHARF
HI 2 45 AM STAGE 2.4 LO 6 42 PM STAGE 0.0
SHELL ISLAND...ATCHAFALAYA BAY
HI 5 53 AM STAGE 1.8 LO 7 27 PM STAGE 0.0
BARATARIA PASS...GRAND ISLE
HI 6 31 AM STAGE 1.7 LO 6 08 PM STAGE 0.0
RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE
HI 8 44 AM STAGE 1.4 LO 8 49 PM STAGE 0.0
SOUTHWEST PASS...MISSISSIPPI RIVER
HI 4 41 AM STAGE 1.8 LO 4 36 PM STAGE 0.0
WINE ISLAND...TERREBONNE BAY
HI 6 39 AM STAGE 1.8 LO 7 20 PM STAGE 0.0
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Wow, that's close. Not that it really matters too much in the scheme of things, but it looks like the may not be able to complete before landfall. Small solace. Those poor people.
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Anton Ross
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
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I just did some light reading about the fact that NO has built up a lot of its areas on top of former dumps.
Toxic dumps....
SNIP
"In 1994, Blanco's home, 66 others, and 221 townhouses were officially declared a superfund site. Since that time, the Environmental Protection Agency has been battling with homeowners over how to handle the problem. Then this spring, the EPA launched its $20 million cleanup plan, a plan that residents reject as unsafe. When initial tests were conducted, the primary toxin found was lead, but 149 other pollutants were also identified. Carl Edlund, EPA chief of the Superfund branch now cleaning up the neighborhood, says testing showed 17 feet of toxins that became more toxic the deeper they dug."
Read More: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/environment/jan-june99/epa_6.21.html
This gets uglier and uglier...not just from the human cost, but the impact on the land itself (which of course impacts humans).
Don't know what else to say about this...
/Oy. Vey. Oy. Vey.
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"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary.
-Albert Einstein
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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If I'm reading those correctly Danny, this storm is hitting at high tide?
Storm surge + wave height + high tide= _____
Wow, I did not realize this. Is there typically a big tidal fluctuation in the MS/LA area? Or is the difference between high and low normally negligible?
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
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CNN reported that SouthWest Pas had A gust of 101.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
If I'm reading those correctly Danny, this storm is hitting at high tide?
Storm surge + wave height + high tide= _____
Wow, I did not realize this. Is there typically a big tidal fluctuation in the MS/LA area? Or is the difference between high and low normally negligible?
Not in Jackson Cty, MS where the difference between high and low tide is at most a couple feet...but yes I checked earlier today, only for that area, and I think high tide was around 9am-ish.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Mon Aug 29 2005 06:16 AM)
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Anton Ross
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
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Anyone else notice that there is still a streaming line of residents trying to get out of the general area? (CNN live update, WX Live Update)
Granted, some of the roads are pretty high up above the city itself, but they don't seem to be making much progress?
That is somewhat disconcerting?
I hope I am seeing old images.
/Anton
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"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary.
-Albert Einstein
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i'm a little confused by people posting that 50K people are going to die. if FEMA was talking like that, wouldn't it be all over the major networks? sketchy also on the intensity forecast now. it does look like the track is on, but i'm watching the inner core on radar (satellite eclipse for now) and it does look like an or just plain ol' erosion is taking place, especially on the SE side of the inner core. now, if at sunup tomorrow the appearance is solid annular, yeah, i'll know the worst is on its way. but i sense the fairy godmother, if you know what i mean.
now, as for N.O. being flooded.. i'm not going to argue that. yes, it's going to flood. a lot of the city will be under a lot of water. as for the people in the superdome... not sure the roof will fail. they'll need cat 4 winds, and that isn't a certainty. i'm betting N.O. winds will peak around 120mph late morning tomorrow. worse east of the city and from slidell to gulfport, surely... but N.O. will probably get the west side. also not sure how many people are playing chicken and staying behind in the city. a lot of the older architecture is going to get destroyed, so hopefully not too many people were dumb enough to stay in that. i'm sure they got folks out of the areas to be totally submerged.. that just leaves people in a very windy version of venice, i guess.
i think this hurricane will probably kill more people than any in recent years, but the huge numbers some of y'all are fronting.. nah, just can't see that happening. local and government authorities aren't going to let that happen.
okay, i've said my piece. hope i wake up to less of a hurricane tomorrow.
HF 0620z29august
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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42040 B 0550Z 29.18N -88.21W 103nm 41deg(NE) of center
wind from 100deg at46.6kts gusts to 58.3kts wave ht 40.0feet 13sec period - - baro29.20 -0.18tend AirT81.7 SeaT84.6 DewPt79.7 -
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 29 2005 06:22 AM)
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
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Photo for history:
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast/hurricane/color/0000_latest.jpg
Table breaking Image removed[ -- this is the same in the upper right corner.
Edited by MikeC (Mon Aug 29 2005 06:32 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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heard a report early this afternoon. est height of waves near center.....65-70ft high.... will try to find text information to confirm..... new orleans should be getting hammered right now with high winds from cells and feeder band coming through
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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hurricane force winds now ashore
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=burl1
**Note: this report is more than 1:30 old...last report from station.~danielw
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 29 2005 06:42 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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KMSY...New Orleans Int'l Airport isn't reporting.
KNEW is Lakefront Airport on the South Shore of Lake Ponchartrain.
KASD is Slidell Airport. Near NWS OFFICE.
Conditions at: KNEW observed 0623 UTC 29 August 2005
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.35 inches Hg (994.0 mb)
Winds: from the NE (40 degrees) at 47 MPH (41knots; 21.3 m/s) gusting to 59 MPH (51 knots; 26.5 m/s)
Visibility: 0.75 miles (1.21 km)
Ceiling: 2100 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 400 feet AGL broken clouds at 2100 feet AGL overcast cloud deck at 2900 feet AGL
Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance/
Conditions at: KASD observed 0624 UTC 29 August 2005
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.43 inches Hg (996.7 mb)
Winds: from the NE (40 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 knots; 8.3 m/s) gusting to 30 MPH (26 knots; 13.5 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: 1900 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 100 feet AGL overcast cloud deck at 1900 feet AGL
Weather: -RA BR (light rain, mist)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 290631
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/05:34:50Z
B. 28 deg 02 min N
089 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2329 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 326 deg 121 kt
G. 209 deg 020 nm
H. 910 mb
I. 12 C/ 3027 m
J. 21 C/ 3013 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 2012A OB 14
MAX FL WIND 134 KT SE QUAD 0249Z
oh yeah i was thinking it was 1:00 now....opps!
based on radar... winds should be in 120-140 now in that area!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 29 2005 06:45 AM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Yeah I checked that when I got home about an hour ago and they were running almost that high then, but what I thought was interesting was the wave steepness was still only average - just really really high running seas.
Now it looks like they are starting to go from 'average' to 'steep.'
Looks like the additional recon showed consistent info...intensity did inch down, but nothing more than that. Does it appear they will be dropping the sustained windspeed on the 2am?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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sats back....look at west side..... land appears to be affecting her now.... she may begin to weaken some
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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And they did drop the winds to 155 at the 2am.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
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very good news, plus the forward speed incresed to 12 MPH to the north. this means it wont have that much of a chance to intensify, maybe even decrease further.Possible CAT 3?
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