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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
I am certainly NOT on the boat... [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #51673 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:15 PM

I am at a friend's house inland 30 miles....I brought my Honda generator, loaded up my valuables on my truck...and got out of there 2-3 hours ago.

I am sure there will be some stubborn people who will not evacuate. We are north of I-10...and the rule of thumb is to evacuate if you are south of I-10....

many will not....

Ivan just missed us last year....It kicked right at the last minute...and we got 60 mile an hour winds....nuthing....

This one is on our west side....and that is not good..

I am seeing more of a northerly turn...ya'll.....!!!!

We could...and I repeat...we could take this on the chin....

If it hits New Orleans...it'll be the natural disaster of the century for the US....

If it hits Mobile.....ouch


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Magic Hat
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 10
Loc: Lucedale, MS
Re: whew [Re: LI Phil]
      #51674 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:16 PM

I took his statement to be for those like me who are on medication, not anyone who would use illegal drugs. Which reminds me, I forgot to take my menapause meds this morning. Thanks for the reminder Lu

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: whew [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #51675 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:23 PM

Hi all - took my 4-hour nap and I'm monitoring this now along with everyone.

OK I heard from my brother who works for the sheriff's dept in Pascagoula. They understand the storm surge situation and that most of the county if not all will be underwater, at varying depths, and that will be the threat, not the wind, there. My brother put his meds in a waterproof pocket in his vest. He will be stationed on the west side of the county. We talked about where a little strip of land might be above water there, and he promised to take a close look at the maps to remember where the highest points are when the surge comes. They will be working out of a little sub station right by I-10 there, using armored vehicles to go out and make rescues until it is not possible any more.

I think everyone is starting to realize what a vulnerable position Jackson County is in as far as surge. The maps are online if anyone wants to look.

They will be doing rescues, among other things, until it is almost too late to go out. Then they try to wait it out in a "safe place." He's already considered that it's entirely possible he mght spend part of the night clinging to a tree! Anyway, he's prepared as he can be, and he'll try to find a way to get in touch with me at times. We both think that unless Katrina turns east, the cell phone towers will survive even with the flooding.

My mother and one of my other brothers evacuated and are heading to my 4th brother's house in TX. The other brother who lives in the back county, no one has heard from but supposedly he hasn't left because his wife had to work at the Wal-Mart, which did not close (no comment here).

My brother was on the East Bank (of the Pascagoula River) when he called, and they were just getting ready to deploy to the west side of the cty. He said the water is already very high there.

One thing I couldn't find readily and that I'd like someone to post if they know, and that is, exclusive of the steadily rising water, when do they expect the surge to hit that area? If so, can you please post, and PM me on it as well.

A friend asked that I spend the evening with them rather than be alone, but I can still log on here from their laptop, so I'll be checking in.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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nate77
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Re: I am certainly NOT on the boat... [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #51676 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:24 PM

Quote:

I am at a friend's house inland 30 miles....I brought my Honda generator, loaded up my valuables on my truck...and got out of there 2-3 hours ago.

I am sure there will be some stubborn people who will not evacuate. We are north of I-10...and the rule of thumb is to evacuate if you are south of I-10....

many will not....

Ivan just missed us last year....It kicked right at the last minute...and we got 60 mile an hour winds....nuthing....

This one is on our west side....and that is not good..

I am seeing more of a northerly turn...ya'll.....!!!!

We could...and I repeat...we could take this on the chin....

If it hits New Orleans...it'll be the natural disaster of the century for the US....

If it hits Mobile.....ouch




If it hits New Orleans no doubt it will devistating, but Disater of the century was 9/11.

Anyone else here thinking that it will hit land earlier then they predict?

9/11 was horrible...but lets focus on Katrina please

Edited by LI Phil (Sun Aug 28 2005 07:27 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
storm surge simulation [Re: nate77]
      #51679 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:30 PM

of new orleans during a slow moving cat iv...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: I am certainly NOT on the boat... [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #51680 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:30 PM

Quote:

If it hits New Orleans...it'll be the natural disaster of the century for the US....

If it hits Mobile.....ouch




The scary part is how both could potentially happen. Worst-case for NOLA is an east pass, with the west eyewall pushing Lake P over the levees and in to the city. Obviously, Mobile's worst-case is a west pass, with the stronger east eyewall flooding the Bay. This is looking really, really bad

WEATHER CONTENT: from looking at the NOLA radar, it also looks to me like the eye is moving nearly due-north at this point. In the last few frames there's a dry pocket that formed just outside the west eyewall, let's hope we get an ERC soon.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: I am certainly NOT on the boat... [Re: leetdan]
      #51683 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:39 PM

It looks like that to me too, although 2 frames does not a trend make

The reason I feel it may be more than a wobble is that on the water vapor loop, I can see the effects of the shortwave to the west, and also, some of the cloud features are eroded on the western side. The IR floater loop I use isn't much help right now as the picture shifted a few frames ago. It also doesn't look like it wants to do an ERC before landfall either.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
more NO storm surge [Re: leetdan]
      #51684 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:40 PM

storm surge information concerning NO...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: KAT TRACK [Re: leetdan]
      #51685 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:41 PM

The on-air MET on MSNBC just mentioned the northward motion again. I roughly calculated the movement the last 3.5 hrs, 8.5 mph - so it looks like it has slowed down some.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none

--------------------
RJB


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: I am certainly NOT on the boat... [Re: leetdan]
      #51686 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:45 PM

Unfortunately Dan, if we get an ERC right now, Katrina may have enough time to begin strengthening again right at landfall. At this point though, debating intensity is almost insignificant, as the surge is the big factor for Nawlins, and when it comes to wind... well it doesn't make a whole heckuva lot of difference if I hit you with a sledgehammer or a basball bat... either way it's not pretty. I'd like to post a link Old Sailor posted a few days ago again. It has been a tremendous help for me in determining the true motion of the storm. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

It's a game of mere miles for New Orleans right now, I can't really make a call. If by some miracle, the storm passes far enough east to avoid devasting the city, it’s still going to be a close shave. I don’t think we’ll be able to forecast it either, we’ll simply know it when it happens.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: KAT TRACK [Re: Ron Basso]
      #51687 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:47 PM

I also saw the slowdown. What is really interesting to me is here in Pcola (Gulf Breeze) we are experiencing lightning and thunder. very rare in a tropical system. Actually the last storm I remember this was Erin in 95, and well after landfall.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Todd
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
Re: more NO storm surge [Re: LI Phil]
      #51688 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:50 PM

LT Phil and others .. here is a link to a rather large pdf which explains the levee system and what can go really wrong here in NO Specifically what happened in Hurricane Betsy http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/goingunder.pdf ..
It's 24 mgs

The smaller JPG http://www.nola.com/hurricane/popup/goingunder_jpg.html

Here is the JPG for the current levee system in place . their last line of defence

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/popup/nolalevees_jpg.html

Edited by Todd (Sun Aug 28 2005 07:55 PM)


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nate77
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Re: KAT TRACK [Re: pcola]
      #51689 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:51 PM

WWLTV just reported that Oil is now at 70 dollars a barrel.. Get ready for a huge gas price increase.

There is only speculation at this point in time that gas prices may reach $70/barrel on Monday or Tuesday; but, right now, the oil markets are not currently open to react to any impact of the storm. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 28 2005 07:54 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: whew [Re: pcola]
      #51690 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:53 PM

Radar loops are generally only one hour long, particularly those from the NWS. Thus, they are not going to show forward speed all that well; movement on satellite is better for that right now. Overall, it's still going at a decent clip, but it's going to fluctuate up and down between 7-8mph and 14-15mph.

As for the "dry slot" on radar -- long-range radar through areas of heavy precipitation often suffers from what is called attenuation, where echoes may not be able to be detected at such ranges due to the heavy precipitation capturing all of the echoes sent out by the radar. That's more likely than not what is occurring in the last couple of radar frames at this time.

Conditions have begun to really deteriorate in Southeast Louisiana & New Orleans and will continue to do so through the night. The first well-defined feeder band is just off-shore, stretching from New Orleans to south of Pensacola along the extreme northern Gulf coast. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes are likely with this band. Future bands will only ratchet up the winds, rain, and the waves. Storm surges of 20' are not out of the question over a wide area from Mobile to SE Louisiana where the storm makes landfall.

At 7:45p ET, the storm is located 200mi. SSE of New Orleans and 130mi. due S of the extreme SE tip of Louisiana, moving NNW at between 8-11mph. The latest recon report shows a central pressure of 904mb, only 2mb higher than earlier this afternoon. This storm is likely to maintain itself over the course of the evening, aided in time by the diurnal convective maximum and warm waters off of the coast of Louisiana. It is a good bet that this storm will landfall as a ~165mph category 5 hurricane in SE Louisiana and at it's current rate of speed, will do so in the region before sun-up tomorrow. It will be near New Orleans sometime several hours on either side of noon (CT) tomorrow, moving inland and accelerating through the evening. Impacts will be felt all the way to Pensacola in the form of high winds, surge, and heavy rainfall.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: whew [Re: Clark]
      #51691 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:56 PM

Thanks for the update Clark. Not a lot of good new there.

I just saw in the last vortex message that the eyewall is open to the SW. I would think this would be good news, as perhaps it is a sign of weakening? Or is this a sign of possible rapid intensification about to occur? I realize this is insignificant, the storm won't get weaker than a 4, but I'm looking for any sort of possible silver lining.


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: KAT TRACK [Re: nate77]
      #51692 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:56 PM

Clark,
Acutally oil trades electronically tonight so that $70 may be accurate.
Watch MSNBC for more detail.

Thanks for the heads-up. I don't believe any major action will be seen until the work week begins, however, and the main markets open, partially due to waiting and seeing what happens with the storm. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 28 2005 07:59 PM)


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: whew [Re: Clark]
      #51693 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:57 PM

Absolutely right, I wasn't even thinking about attenuation when I saw that (aspiring electrical engineer here, radar is just a big old antenna at heart). Thanks as always for your insight!

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Tornado/Svr. Thunderstorm Warnings [Re: Clark]
      #51694 - Sun Aug 28 2005 07:58 PM

Mobile & Baldwin Counties are now under tornado warnings, with the Dauphin Island under the gun from this particular cell. To follow watches and warnings as they are issued -- especially if you do not have a weather radio -- visit http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/. It is likely that as Katrina approaches the coast, parts or all of the area in which in the inner core is projected to pass through will be placed under tornado warnings to highlight the threat of wind damage from this storm. Essentially, this is an F3 tornado with a center 28mi wide and strong winds out to 25mi from the eye in all directions...not something to be messed with.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Tornado/Svr. Thunderstorm Warnings [Re: Clark]
      #51695 - Sun Aug 28 2005 08:01 PM

Remember how amazing it was when buoy 42040 (S of Dauphin Island) reported the 50ft wave for Ivan?

Well at that buoy right now the waves are already 30ft.

Margie, many of us remember the buoy that "stopped" reporting...ivan ripped it out of the sea floor...buckle up

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by LI Phil (Sun Aug 28 2005 08:05 PM)


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
excellent post Clark [Re: Clark]
      #51696 - Sun Aug 28 2005 08:03 PM

You all have no idea of how much this site means to me.....without a doubt........awesome.

we were just placed under a tornado watch....the band coming in right now made them issue it...because radar is hinting at possible formations.

In a hurricane like this one also has to be aware, not just of the sustained winds, but also of spin-off tornadoes and downbursts...
shoot....my boat is toast, ya'll....toast.....

I had an awesome view in the mornings of Dog River, Alabama...just beautiful....

well, we all go through it one way or another, don't we?

I just hope it misses New Orleans....I really do....

my current gut feel...if you don't mind me posting this...

slash the tip of Louisiana...and hit the Alabama/Mississippi line....


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