NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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TRY THIS NAVY SITE
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
SORRY Fl Mommy that was for Native
this is for you mommy
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_14.gif
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
Edited by NewWatcher (Fri Sep 02 2005 10:33 AM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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quick rundown this morning:
lee is being tracked as a remnant low right now... they'll issue forecasts on it again if it redevelops convection, but for now it's just a swirl.
14L should be maria when the advisory comes out.. shortly. it's been persistent and shows the organizational structure typical of a tropical storm in a decreasing shear environment. consensus track is still out into the north atlantic to the east of bermuda. may interact with the developing low pressure area to the west.
92L had a substantial amount of convection last night on its western side that has mostly sheared off.. today it's a broad circulation with scattered convection nearby. still getting easterly shear but less so as time progresses. the system is taking a low trajectory.. and not developing as quickly as numerous models have been suggesting, so the long-term effect may be for a more southerly track. it has fair to good chances of development.
the complex feature shown on models off the east coast has more model consensus on it now... most are developing a two-pronged sort of strung out trough with a northward-moving low out near bermuda, and another weaker low trying to develop near the bahamas or straits of florida. not sure how accurate the overhung trough depicted off the east coast is as it may split.. rather than just hang like a shield off the east coast. still too far ahead to filter out the fine details.
HF 1433z02september
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Cindi
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Loc: Panama City, FL
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This is my first post here, I am still trying to learn. I have been lurking since Friday...all I can say is I have no words for how I feel about all of this. My heart goes out to all of the people. Also, can't help thinking that if the storm had gone where had first predicted it (Panama City, FL area) I'd now be going through what they are. We have many evacuees in our area, many people are reaching out to them...hotels in the area are calling all of the people who had Labor Day reservations to cancel to make room for the evacuees. They are charging them 1/2 price for rooms. After Labor Day, the rooms will be going for about $20 a night. Area churches are cooking dinners for people. People in town are offering rooms in their homes. We have a 2 bedroom house...my son (15 yrs) is giving up his room for a while so people can stay with us. If we don't hear soon from the Red Cross (we signed up with our church), we will go out to the beach and find a family. I am sure we will be able to, since the news media reported that parking lots, etc are full of families sleeping in their cars. One family in Callaway, FL (where I live) has 21 people in their home and are asking area people for help w/food and such. The outpour here is incredible. Schools in the area are allowing students to enroll w/ no indentifcation/information, etc and will be giving them free lunches. Gulf Coast Community College is allowing college students to attend college free and is offfering library/internet access/showers to any of the evacuees. Restaurtants are either giving free or deeply discounted dinners to evacuees.
Yes, gas is going up around here, roughly $2.89 a gallon...although I did see 3.38 at one place. Ironically, one place around here is selling their regular gas for $2.89 and their premium for $2.83. Rumor has it that there will be a gas shortage, but because I have been here lurking for a week now, I know that rushing out in a panic to buy gas is not the answer, so I will not do that. Also, I have not seen long lines at the gas pump here.
I just pray that we can get these people out of NO. I don't know whose fault it is, nor do I cast blame on anyone. We (as a nation) need to quit blame calling and passing the buck and need to work together to get those people out. It is such an atrocity...
To keep this on topic, I am concerned about that 92L, I have been reading about. Hopefully, it will fizzle out like someone just suggested it would. The last thing we need in our area is another hurricane. I can see mass panic w/people chaotically trying to get out of town around here and it would be a nightmare. I have no met training, so I will just keep lurking to see what happens. Thanks to everyone around here that has keep me and others informed.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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11:00 discussion on Maria...looks like a fish spinner, though maybe a Nova Scotia threat:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200514.disc.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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Yep..it's official:
Quote:
TROPICAL STORM MARIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2005 ; PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
You were right....definitely a more westerly component than before.
Edited by native (Fri Sep 02 2005 11:10 AM)
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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DJINFLA - Well, there ya go...14's now Maria. Good question though....HF often discusses his opinion of 's somewhat inconsistent criteria for classifying (or not) some of the systems this year. (However, if you've been lurking for awhile, you probably already knew that)
HF - Is it at all possible that Maria (or at least her presence) will interfer/hinder the developement of 92L or is 92 still too far south of Maria. I thought 92 was around 7/8N and I see that it's 10N now?
there's enough distance between them so that they wouldn't interact. maria could leave a weakness for it to move towards, but i think it'll stay fairly weak, low, and on a westward track.. for the next 3-4 days. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 02 2005 01:06 PM)
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Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Phil, wonderful news about Danny...keep us posted if you talk to him again.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Darn I tried to post a minute ago, but I guess I forgot to hit the continue button.
Incoming cell phone service now restored to Jackson County MS as of this am. Thought you'd especially like to know this, Kissy, if you're checking in! Or anyone else trying to reach folks down there.
I have internet access from work now, as my PC was just set up, so I can check for PM a couple times during the day.
I had something else but now I can't remember it! Oh well.
EDIT: Last night found info on the web -- Pascagoula did get 134mph winds, if didn't say if that was a gust or sustained winds, because they did get hurricane force winds above 90mph starting at 7am and continuing for quite a lot of the day.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Sep 02 2005 12:22 PM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Big Red, my sentiments go with your emotions because my daughter has just been called to go in the military branch that she is in and help out risking her life and because of what she does she is more at risk than the soldiers with guns, (although she is a sharpshooter it is not her job.) But, Germany in the era you were talking about were not used to freedom to come and go as they pleased and they were used to being shot on sight for much less than what has been happening in NO, So they were easier to help. We on the otherhand have been invaded by souless, conscienceless gangs of people that resemble the Feudal states in the beginning of recorded time in Europe. They are neither American nor human. The humans are suffering. The gangs are not.
I am keeping an eye on the prediction regarding something possibly spinning up for a sneak attack(NoGAPs) prayerfully it is a computer model that needs a vacation in Florida not predicting storms.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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TWC is saying that 92L could be a GOM threat, again...they said this exactly "coming up at 50 past the hour we'll have the tropical update where we will be watchign the GOM, again folks"
That's likely not 92L, but the near-shore development HF referred to a few posts back. It's WAY too early to even be thinking about 92L to the Gulf...like a week too early. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Fri Sep 02 2005 01:02 PM)
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Most definitely, Ed. If they had the foresight to purchase 10,000 body bags and put them in a warehouse, they should have also had the foresight to purchase items like that.
I'm more sad about the whole thing than anything else. I just don't want this to happen again.
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RyanRedCross1
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 11
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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FYI
Why is the Red Cross not in New Orleans?
Access to New Orleans is controlled by the National Guard and local authorities and while we are in constant contact with them, we simply cannot enter New Orleans against their orders.
The state Homeland Security Department had requested--and continues to request--that the American Red Cross not come back into New Orleans following the hurricane. Our presence would keep people from evacuating and encourage others to come into the city.
The Red Cross has been meeting the needs of thousands of New Orleans residents in some 90 shelters throughout the state of Louisiana and elsewhere since before landfall. All told, the Red Cross is today operating 149 shelters for almost 93,000 residents.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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I wish it wasnt true, but i disagree. New Orleans hasnt had a direct hit like
this in over 100 years. You cant have water and MRE's sitting around for 100 years just in case. I dont know what the answer is, but im not sure that is it.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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True, good point New Watcher. Plus there's no guarantee those would have gotten to those who need it anyway. I'm really not sure what the solution is. I guess I just feel that someone should have had a plan and it shouldn't have taken 3 days for that to go in effect. It's not like this is a big suprise.
Ryan: You guys are doing awesome work all over the place. Once again. What an awesome organization made up of truly caring people.
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susieq
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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Tracey
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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OcalaKT
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
TWC is saying that 92L could be a GOM threat, again...they said this exactly "coming up at 50 past the hour we'll have the tropical update where we will be watchign the GOM, again folks"
Ok since when has the weather channel went that far into the future? they never go beyound 3-5 days and this is not even a storm yrt plus its closer to africa then us and they are saying watch out the GOM? find this hard to believe anyone watch there insanity at 52 past?
Maybe it was something going to develops in the GOM but i find it very hard to believe them talking about 92l this early.
read clark's add-on to the post. ryan was mixed up about what's what. the hpc progs are showing a gulf system next week, but it isn't related. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 02 2005 01:09 PM)
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