Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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4PM 5-Sep-2005 Update
Were watching the tropical wave in the Bahamas called 94L for potential development because of its proximity to land.
However, Tropical Depression #14 may form from another tropical wave in the atlantic within the hour.
Original Update
Earlier this morning Maria reached Cat I status - the fifth hurricane of the season. Maria is in the central Atlantic moving north at 15mph. She is expected to continue on a northerly course - and eventually northeast - and should pose no threat to land.
NHC is now monitoring a new area of interest (Invest 93L) to the east of the central Bahamas - see the Storm Forum for initial info on this disturbed area. A weak surface low was located near 26.5N 66.5W at 04/12Z with convection primarily south of the low. The low was drifting slowly to the north and slow development of this system is possible. Models generally take the system north and then northeast .
A weak surface low is centered in the northern Bahamas near 26N 78W at 04/12Z. This system is currently poorly organized, however, the UK Met model does develop this area into a tropical cyclone and take it to the north - very slowly. Other model solutions show a wide range of expected tracks. Too early to say whether this area will develop or not, but it is certainly an area to monitor.
Invest 92L was showing new signs of increased convection near 10N 52W at 04/12Z. The system is moving west northwest into an area that is more favorable for development and this could become a Tropical Depression in the next day or two. Models intensify this system and move it into the central Caribbean Sea south of the Dominican Republic by mid-week - worth keeping a close eye on this one.
ED
Event Related Links
Bahamas Weather/Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Maria
Animated model plots of Maria
Invests 93L, and 94L
 
Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 05 2005 04:31 PM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I will be watching the low near 26N 78W as this is only about 125 miles due east of Ft. Lauderdale this morning. It will be something to watch over the next 2 days. We have had plenty of rain and thunder all night long, this is a bit unusual to occur throughout the entire night. It is one ugly looking morning outside too. I will be watching the radar below all day. A year ago tonight we were dealing with Hurricane .
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
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That doesn't look to have much rotation with it..... but there is a hint of it on the radar. Not a lot, but a hint....
If that was to wrap up and crank it could get interesting over the next couple of days. This we certainly do not need - came out of this same general area......
I'm also paying close attention to 92L.....
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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
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Hi,
wow, this does look like a wannabe!
I have been looking at this area for a few days i believe and wondering could this spin out into something for south florida and if it did it wouldnt give us much lead time to prepare? Scary , what would the landfall time on this one be if it were to form? This is different then 93l correct? I try to make sense of all the data 
and then theres Maria hoping she makes her turn soon!!
thanks
jusforsean
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Is it me,or is something starting to spin near 23n 68w????????Look at the last 2 frames. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlanim8ir.html
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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I believe that is what classified as 93L. The mentions this feature in the 5am .
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED AROUND
THE CENTER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
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Jara
*************************************************************
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
I believe that is what classified as 93L. The mentions this feature in the 5am .
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED AROUND
THE CENTER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
i agrree with the last part of the advisory, i think we'll have a TD soon..also, as for 92L(the thing down east of the lesser antilles doesnt have much spin, or convection as it should, but also could develope, where it will go is unknown. I hope the gulf gets a break for a little while. I hope everyone gets a break in this really busy season. Also, NYPD transported cops, relief workers, and a big big number of MTA busses to Louisiana..nice job NYC!...lol
Good Luck, and keep in your mindss that my birthday is at 12:15 AM tomorrow...lol jk
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Reaper
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 45
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla
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I know this may be a little premature, but, doesn't this appear to have some degree of rotation to it already?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0Z_lp.shtml
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Yes, the MLB long range shows a center of rotation just north of Grand Bahama. You can also see this on visible. just said a low level circulation has formed and this may be our next depression.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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hey guys,
just been looking at that area just north of Grand Bahama, and it certainly seems to be cranking up. Banding features are becomming evident in the northwest and southwest quadrants, with possible a strong band taking shape in the southeast quadrant. Models have been hinting at development in this area so it certainly needs watching, especially given its proximity to the coast. Think this could be our next classified system, but it might be a race between this and 93L to the NE of the T&C Islands. 93L has some good convective structure and a developing comma shape cloud signature, so it too could become a classified system soon too!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Navy just posted a new Invest - 94L. Unfortunately they still haven't fixed the bug with their new storm pages, so both 93 and 94L don't show anything useful... You can click on the visible link and get the visible sat image, so I can confirm this is the system over the Bahamas.
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Sep 04 2005 06:27 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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New model out on 93L. It keeps it out at sea (though with a dangerous looking westward hook toward Virginia/Maryland/Deleware that later recurves to the north) and brings it up to 100kts in 72 hours.
No model runs on 94L it seems. 5pm mentioned it could develop into a TD within a couple days.
--RC
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JulieTampa
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 10
Loc: Lithia, FL
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MSNBC's photo of a hurricane that is beneath "Katrina" has one of the pinwheel-type eyes with several mini-rotations in it. On this forum, there was a brief mention of anular hurricanes which have eyes like that when Hurricane was a Cat 5. Is the photo actually of or did they borrow a photo from a previous Cat 5? I recall some amazing stadium eye views on visible sat of , but never the pinwheel.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Invest 94L
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
New model out on 93L. It keeps it out at sea (though with a dangerous looking westward hook toward Virginia/Maryland/Deleware that later recurves to the north) and brings it up to 100kts in 72 hours.
No model runs on 94L it seems. 5pm mentioned it could develop into a TD within a couple days.
--RC
weak systems and models don't mix, its a wait and see for the next 24h at least
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
MSNBC's photo of a hurricane that is beneath "Katrina" has one of the pinwheel-type eyes with several mini-rotations in it. On this forum, there was a brief mention of anular hurricanes which have eyes like that when Hurricane was a Cat 5. Is the photo actually of or did they borrow a photo from a previous Cat 5? I recall some amazing stadium eye views on visible sat of , but never the pinwheel.
I recall this same image from a storm last year. I believe we saw a clip from -2005 on MSNBC (Isaw it too and thought it was from last year).
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Did 94L develop quickly or have I been so absorbed in aftermath I didn't see it coming. That is frightening. Looks like by those models it could visit me and I certainly am not ready. 
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
MSNBC's photo of a hurricane that is beneath "Katrina" has one of the pinwheel-type eyes with several mini-rotations in it. On this forum, there was a brief mention of anular hurricanes which have eyes like that when Hurricane was a Cat 5. Is the photo actually of or did they borrow a photo from a previous Cat 5? I recall some amazing stadium eye views on visible sat of , but never the pinwheel.
No clue what MSNBC is using, but...
That effect was very visible on - supersized image that you can see it on:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2005240-0828/Katrina.A2005240.1700.250m.jpg
Some other sat images you could see it even better on, but unfortunately I don't have an easy reference archive of those.
--RC
Dial up users beware - this file is over 8Mb download --Skeetobite
Thx for pointing that out. Here's a smaller one (~1MB): http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2005240-0828/Katrina.A2005240.1700.1km.jpg
You can still see the eye formation on it, though it's no where near as fun as the huge image  --RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Sep 04 2005 10:27 PM)
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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If anyone cares, the eye MSNBC is using is unmistakenly Isabel's:
http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/QTmovies/030912.isabel.mov
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cheers
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
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Quote:
Did 94L develop quickly or have I been so absorbed in aftermath I didn't see it coming. That is frightening. Looks like by those models it could visit me and I certainly am not ready.
Ah, don't worry just yet about it. There's not much there right now - if it kicks up through Monday then I'd get a bit concerned, but the models aren't going to have a decent handle on it until it gets a solid initialization - which it doesn't have right at the moment.
I will say that I don't like the look of it though, all things considered... and the A98E run is particularly bad from my perspective - although the good news is that A98E has been abysmal in terms of track prediction for quite some time.... 
I doubt this will get to be anything significant before it comes inland - if it comes inland - other than as a rainmaker. On the other hand if it does track across and get into the gulf, we could be in for trouble that nobody in the gulf can really stand right now......
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