Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Quote:
Did 94L develop quickly or have I been so absorbed in aftermath I didn't see it coming. That is frightening. Looks like by those models it could visit me and I certainly am not ready. 
A combination of a few things caused it to develop. A frontal system and accopanying low drapped down over the US. This then spawned a trio of low pressure centers over the Bahamas and nearby Atlantic waters. From these low pressure centers both 93L and 94L have developed.
It's been believed for several days now that one of the low pressure centers would develop...but which one was unknown so they couldn't really flag an invest until there was more organization. Now 2 of the centers show organization...and are drifting away from each other. We might get two systems out of this.
(please correct me if I have the series of events wrong - I'm writing this from memory)
--RC
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Vero Beach, FL
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same here! 94 all of a sudden there it is....just down the street from me! the sat pics seem a bit ragged and the track takes it here (east coast FL) in 48 hours or so. Based on that, i don't see it strengthening. Prehaps one of the mets here can confirm my amatuer eye?
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
If anyone cares, the eye MSNBC is using is unmistakenly Isabel's:
http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/QTmovies/030912.isabel.mov
Yes, that is the one. Beatiful image, but made a wreck of the Outer Banks.
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Thanks so much Genesis and Random. I really depend on you guys for info. I'm still trying to learn about these storms and more times than not I have difficulty understanding them.I have been on pins and needles all week and watching the SE Coast . Your updates are definitly appreciated by many
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Oh yeah, and here is an impressive photo of 's eye:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hurricane_Katrina_Eye_viewed_from_Hurricane_Hunter.jpg
If you have the bandwidth, there is a enlarged version linked just below the image 
=========
(repost your comments in the appropriate Forum)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 05 2005 02:48 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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they graphics MSNBC uses i think is the same as last year... not sure what hurricane that is from... here's a link to close-up of at CAT 5.... NOTE file is a gif and is 33mb
Katrina eye ....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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maria has a mess of weakling company tonight.
the hurricane maria is staying well out in the atlantic.. will pass around 300 miles east of bermuda i guess. official only taking it up to a 2... that seems very reasonable. the storm hasn't shown much tendency to strengthen.. don't expect it'll get a whole lot stronger.. will chuck the cat 3 idea.
the invests in order are:
92L. northerly shear, no improvement from earlier. there is a broad north/south elongated turning nearing 50w, with spotty convection. the upper trough that is advancing on it from the east shouldn't be able to keep up forever, so it ought to be under modest ridging as it nears the islands. potential for slow development during the next couple of days exists, no qualm with the outlook. if this thing develops it'll be a problem for somebody.
93L is more of an issue for development. the storm is drifting northward under weakening northerly shear, and should find itself under the low-shear section of the ridge tomorrow.. probably get the degree of organization to be classified. right now it's a depression with its convection removed from the center.. another of these systems not classified solely on the basis of sheared profile.
94L appears more like 92L in its level of organization... an elongated low that is part of a larger trough, with fairly persistent convection but nothing like 93L has. this system is being pattern-forced and should produce a persistent onshore flow on the east coast of florida going into the week. may not get all that deep, but will probably produce strong enough winds by gradient to merit classification. most of the globals take it northward and northeastward eventually... some have it cross florida. it may never make landfall, but if it does it'll probably be fairly weak. probably more of a pesky system than anything else.
that's pretty much it. fairly active basin, but nothing looks that threatening.
HF 0323z05september
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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but 93L looks to be a fish spinner rigt i mean its lrety far out there to affect the US, also..if 94L does hit florida, it could do a like trail and go into the GOM again couldnt it?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Parrish florida
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Happy Birthday! I never thought about another possible scenario. I guess it could be possible. What a disgusting thought.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i hope the latest is out to lunch..... i couldn't even think what would happen to the gulf coast area....i know that will have to see how the next few runs go to see a trend.... 94L Runs
thats why all the models are all over the place....
Well sept. is about to get a cooking!!!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
MSNBC's photo of a hurricane that is beneath "Katrina" has one of the pinwheel-type eyes with several mini-rotations in it. On this forum, there was a brief mention of anular hurricanes which have eyes like that when Hurricane was a Cat 5. Is the photo actually of or did they borrow a photo from a previous Cat 5? I recall some amazing stadium eye views on visible sat of , but never the pinwheel.
I haven't seen the image but I suspect that it is an image of Isabel. Yes, was an annular hurricane for some of the time it was a Cat 5, and it did have vortices in the eye, but they were not that distinct from satellite images, and I am familiar with the photos of Isabel, where very symmetric vorticies were clearly visible. I am trying to remember when during this past ten mostly sleepless days, was annular, and I seem to remember that it was after she came out of satellite blackout, early early Sunday morning. Yes I think that is right because those images blew me away.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
i hope the latest is out to lunch.....
Same here. GDFL run on 94L at PSU shows it tracking across FL and into New Orleans as a Cat 4. Eeep.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
Note: PSU can't seem to label these systems right. Use 93L to get 94L. Use 94L or Maria for Maria (depends on the graphic...Maria's pressure is under 94L, Maria's Vorticity is under Maria). I can't figure out what PSU is doing with these graphics!
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Sep 05 2005 12:36 PM)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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The long range Miami RAD clearly shows a circulation spinning about 100 miles east. Convection appears to be growing and the system is stationary at the moment. Global models are still split with the 00Z & UKMET taking the system slowly up the east coast of FL. The mm5 also does this too. All of the models that run the low pressure up the coast do so very slowly - on the order of 3 to 5 days to go from SE FL to near JAX due to a massive high pressure system centered off the east coast. The other camp of models are the 06Z , 00Z , and 00Z which either takes the system W-NW across the peninsula into the GOM or more northward into the north-central part of the peninsula. Climatology would argue for an up the coast scenario but with the massive high pressure system slow to give way (HPC predicting rather strong zonal flow across eastern US with a deep trough along the NW US), the high looks to simply elongate east-west. Latest HPC discussion indicates that eastern High may actually strengthen:
OVER THE ERN STATES...MASSIVE SUMMERY RIDGE WILL HOLD
SWAY...WITH THE EC BUILDING HEIGHTS ALL THE WAY TO LABRADOR AS
EARLY AS DAY 5.
With the eastern High blocking any significant movement up the coast, I tend to think the latest 06Z run is about right with a slow progression W-NW across the peninsula eventually into the GOM. The 00Z is a truely frightening scenario taking the storm into the GOM, strengtening it into a 120 kt hurricane and bringing that storm into NO in 5 days. For FL, perhaps a moderate tropical storm prior to landfall quickly weakening to a TD over the peninsula - lots of rain though with a slow movement.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
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RJB
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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There's a new out that is showing the same track, but keeping the system weaker - only a TS or Cat 1. There is, however, run to run consistency on the track for the .
GFS is now picking up a track similar to the .
CMC is losing the system while it's over Florida, then picking up another low north of where it loses 94L. I don't know if these are the same low, or of is trying to build another low?
NOGAPS is keeping the system on the atlantic side, Sending it north.
My overall view of the global models is that they simply aren't able to define this system yet. There is so much divergence that it is still a wait and see system. The run-to-run consistancy of the and now the also showing the same track gives the track along the northern gulf into Louisiana more credence, but it is still too early to tell. We first have to see if 94L even survives its trip over Florida.
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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Mobile Bay
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The GOES Storm Floater 2 has been moved to this system. Floater 2
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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05/1145 UTC 25.3N 78.7W T1.0/1.0 94L
94L is getting some attention
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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she's looking strong today.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb...28.79 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...31.8 N... 56.7 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 975 mb.
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Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Any plans for the hurricane hunters to investigate 94L today? There is certainly a lot of convection firing up. Hard to discern a center of circulation though from the infrared sat images.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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so far they are set to investigate tomorrow at 1800z
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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