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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Activity in the Bahamas
      #53699 - Sun Sep 04 2005 09:42 AM

Every now and then when a good post catches my attention I may take the liberty of repeating it in this Met Discussion Forum - sort of a 'guest' blog. Here is one from Ron Basso:

Good morning all. Looks like some broad cyclonic turning starting to develop off the SE coast of FL. All of the global models have indicated over the last several days a closed low developing from the old surface trough that migrated southward and now stalled over south FL. 00Z CMC takes the low across the south half of the peninsula, into the GOM to NO. 00Z NOGAPS & UKMET move it slowly up the easy coast of FL and deepen it. 06Z GFS runs it up the middle of the state and then NE. From NWS Tampa Bay 2 AM Disc:

MOST MODELS NOW AGREE ON SOME SORT OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN OR NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE NAM BEING
THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A MORE DEVELOPED
LOW ONTO THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT
PAINFULLY SLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON
FRIDAY. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR HIGHER POPS SOUTH AND LOWER
POPS NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THE REVERSE.
PRE-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGERY DID SHOW SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AS MENTIONED IN TPC'S LATE EVENING TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK. BOTH MODELS TAKE THE LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE LOW CENTER IN QUESTION FOR
MID-WEEK IS ACTUALLY A NEW ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS THE INITIAL
LOW LIFTS OUT. BOTH MODELS ALSO HAVE THIS LOW BECOMING TRAPPED
UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT IF AND WHEN THIS LOW DOES DEVELOP.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

--------------------
RJB

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