Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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is there any chance that TD#16..aka-Ophelia could strengthen into a hurricane before hitting florida?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
is there any chance that TD#16..aka-Ophelia could strengthen into a hurricane before hitting florida?
Yep...it "could" but it isn't likely.
The model graphic shows 2 models bringing it to minimal Hurricane strength before landfall. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
But on the other hand, look at the HUGE model divergence on track! Nearly 180 degree divergence!
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
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EDIT:
Has the decided on a new time system than the 24 hour standard day? We've got a 50 PM sitting over on the main page for TD 16! In case realizes their mistake and takes it down, I took the liberty of screenshoting it: http://www.vorklift.com/50pm.png 
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 06 2005 07:58 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
But on the other hand, look at the HUGE model divergence on track! Nearly 180 degree divergence!
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
I don't like the BAMS or the GFDI models. Is the GFDI the same as the ? It looks the same. I hate it 
I'm afraid we may be looking at TD16 for several days off the FL coast. Eventually it will likely strengthen.
Update: It DOES like (on IR imagery) like it's moving NNW now...
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Tue Sep 06 2005 07:25 PM)
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 26
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The 12Z and 18Z runs are noteworthy...
GFS
These runs would be of particular interest to N. Fla and S. Georgia early next week.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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numbers for the system are a bit up, and it's drifting slightly to the north now. It's going to hold depression status tonight I think, but will make a tropical storm Tomorrow.
I'm still not sold on a track yet, I'm hoping it'll move more north and east away from land.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Ole Tim Degan, is he still surfing? Have not lived up in JAX for almost eight years, still visit; but I have to admit that i have always been a George Winterling guy. Use to sit behind him at Florida State football games. Always knew if I had the right weather gear when he walked in. I'm guessing George is pretty retired by now. May have to see when I head up for the Jags game this weekend, assuming Degan is wrong. I am not sure I can see a system shooting in there. It just never happens at that angle from that direction. I am personally thinking the solution is a little closer to the target area. Not convinced that it does not turn out either, though. I just really have trouble seeing a hit in NE Florida on this storm.
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Jim
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I just went to the NWS radar out of Miami and the long Range out of Melbourn. There seems either to be an outage or very little precipitation from this storm. Does anyone know why it is so scarce? Is the storm falling apart(maybe?)
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I am going to be keeping a close eye on this storm for various reasons:
1) We are leaving on the autotrain out of Sanford on Thursday to go to D.C. I don't know what trains do when there is a TS or TD just off the coast. Anyone know?
2) My mother and my f-i-l will be here watching the kids for a week. The last thing they need to deal with is a problem storm, but I think I'm far enough to the west that it will be just a rain event.
3) We are taking one car and 5 motorcycles back from D.C. through NC, GA, and Florida. I sure hope this doesn't end up in the mountains. Argh! At this point, between glitches with the trip, a storm sitting off the EC of Florida and other things, I'm beginning to wonder if someone's trying to tell me something! Maybe I should not BE in D.C. on 9/11.
Someone can tell me to take a deep breath at anytime. Please. My nerves are shot. 
I did hear Dr. Steve Lyons at 9:15pm or so say it's "drifting" to the NNW. Please keep going N....follow Nate and Maria!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Rasvar, can you please tell me what solution is? When I click on the link and go to potential vorticity I get a big red x. Thanks in advance!
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Nate's up to 3.5 rating from SSD. That's barely under hurricane strength. I'd expect it to stay a TS tonight and strengthen to a Hurricane by morning. is bringing him to a Category 3 within 3-4 days. That might be excessive...but then look at what Maria did. At least he looks like he'll stay out to sea.
As for 94L, it's is also up, from 2.0 to 2.5. It's getting close to TS if it isn't already. We're not going to get another recon tonight so I doubt they will upgrade her to Ophelia yet. I don't trust any model that dissapates this system...so the track is out in my mind. It did the same thing with at times...dissipated her...and look what she did. I'm more inclined to go with the global models...CMC...GFS...NOGAPS...which all take 16 north along the coast and slowly strengthen her, bringing her into land somewhere between mid-Florida and the Outer Banks. Unfortunately the global models aren't good for intensity, and I've noticed that SHIPS has been running weak on intensity this year. My "guess" is that we'll have a Cat 1 hurricane out of Ophelia...but nothing more. Let's see how the models change now that we have a TD rather than a blob.
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Weatherwatcher: is taking 16 SW then W, dissipating her before she reaches the coast of FL. Take a look at the "Late" products here for track: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ -- I don't know what's up with PSU's and 's TCGenisis sites...they seem to be broken a lot of the time this season.
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 06 2005 09:49 PM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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For what its worth, the I saw brings the storm a little north and then slowly brings it across the state as a Tropical storm. Entering around Jupiter and exiting south of Tampa area. Near Sarasota. Then brings it into the Gulf. Not sure it will be as far south as the model has it. Maybe north of Orlando shooting across. not really easy to tell. Just hope the has the intensity right. I do not want another hurricane anywhere near anyone right now.
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Jim
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Is it possible this depression could get into the Gulf? Also, what is that showing up on satellite in the gulf?
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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It's not the pages that are broken or bad, it's the output. The fine-mesh grids are only available for a subset of variables nowadays, not the full suite that used to be available. Sea level pressure is the main one and it always works; potential vorticity is usually not available or calculated. Note that the sites are only current to the data they get in, usually an issue on the national centers' side and not /PSU.
There's nothing wrong with the radar imagery from Melbourne/Miami, either. The storm is far enough away from Miami's radar that the radar beam is overshooting most of the precipitation and not picking up on the low-level banding features quite as well. The Melbourne radar shows the structure better. Remember that this isn't a -like deep storm that will always show up well on radar; it's a weak storm that won't show up that well on radar due to the limitations Ed mentioned earlier today.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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Thank You Randon Chaos! Its nice having all you pros here on this board! Your posts are very helpful. Thanks again..
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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0000utc early runs on TD16
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
Early-cycle intensity guidance
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 06 2005 10:09 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Thank You Randon Chaos! Its nice having all you pros here on this board! Your posts are very helpful. Thanks again..
I don't consider myself a pro  - I just absorb what I learn/read. I've only been tracking tropical storms for about 3 years (though a physics degree helps...as does a strong background in math and a much longer term interest in weather and other dynamical natural systems).
Re Storm Hunter: That track guidence is nuts. I can't tell where anything goes until about 3-4 days out!
Clark: As for the model, it isn't the missing parts that bother me...its the wrong names and such. Yesterday 93L at PSU was actually the 94L . 94L was the pressure part of the Maria . Maria was the vorticity part of the Maria . And hadn't updated with any of the last 3 model runs for some reason. Is the data going onto NECP's FTP servers that erratic? Or is something else going on? Especially becuase the spagetti plot I link to at Colorado State has the latest runs of the track even though I can't always find the pressure model working anywhere. Really odd...
(I hate to take up a post this way...but it's been slow around here the last week...so I hope the mods don't mind )
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 06 2005 10:20 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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yeah i notice the cluster....but what i get from first look at those runs..... looks like the drift to the nnw is going to be much slower and that to me means a little stronger now.... maybe a strong TS or cat 1.... but those were just on 0000 utc spt 7 runs... have to see what next ones show.... i bet the 10pm adv. tonight will have a much larger "CONE" in forecast......and much slower track........ will see in few mintues
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
0000utc early runs on TD16
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
Early-cycle intensity guidance
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
I have a one word response to the model tracks... and it's not suitable for the forum!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 06 2005 10:35 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Didn't see PSU's output, but 's output for the same storms was correct -- I went and checked a few days ago when the issue cropped up. has through the 18Z runs of today's ; the files needed to create the images are not made available until about 3.5hr after the actual time of the model run, with another 30 min-1 hr needed to run through all of the model products and create the images. did have some data server issues a week or so ago, while had some network issues over the weekend; these temporary problems have been fixed, however.
The actual points for given storms are available much sooner from the (see the Ohio State tropical sever for the text product), but the grids with the data are not. Products like GFDI and GFNI listed on that CSU model plot aren't really "new" runs of the or GFDN but are early-cycle "interpolated" runs based off of the previous (e.g. 00Z interpolated models use the 18Z model data with interpolation to the 00Z location) model run. The late-cycle guidance, not available until some time after, is the actual true run of the model and what you see on the & PSU sites.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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