MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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10:30PM Update
A tropical storm watch is now up from Titusville north to Flagler beach.
4PM Update
Latest recon fix shows TD 16 to be about the same intensity as the 11am initial advisory -- pressure of 1008mb, flight-level (here, near-surface) winds of 27kt. They'll be sampling the storm for some time to come still, so it remains to be seen as to whether or not they find anything stronger.
Some models have it dissapating (which would be nice), but I'm not so sure about that at the moment.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from Jupiter to Titusville as the 16th Depression of the Season forms off the Coast of Florida. Points further north will likely come later this evening. TD#16 is not moving much, and may be over water for the next few days as it crawls slightly to the north and west.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
It is expected to make landfall in East Central or North Florida as a tropical storm. It is moving very slowly and may take a long time to move westward and northwestward. The Tropical Storm Warnings may be extended further north later today.
The forecast moves the system extremely slowly toward the northwest and north northwest. There is some uncertainty, so it may make landfall anywhere in the rather large cone. Intensity wise, it is likely to hold itself as a Tropical Storm. However, depending on how slow the motion goes the chance of it making minimal hurricane status is there. The National Hurricane Center, however, is holding with Tropical Storm Warnings. We may have windy conditions along the coast for an extended amount of time with the current forecast track, with them gradually increasing.
Hopefully people won't be caught off guard if it stays offshore a bit longer and becomes a minimal hurricane, which is possible, but not likely at the moment. Folks along the east coast of Florida will want to pay attention. The forecast isn't certain and if it strengthens more rapidly than expected we could have Hurricane Watches or Warnings up by tomorrow.
Recon aircraft are going out there this afternoon, and we'll hopefully know more when they do.
Maria is a threat only to shipping interests and will not affect Land.
Nate may affect the island of Bermuda, and folks there will need to pay attention to local sources and alerts as time goes by. Outside of Bermuda, Nate is no threat to land.
More to come soon.
Report conditions from TD#16 in your area In this thread
Event Related Links
Bahamas Weather/Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Emergency Management:
State of Florida - Florida disaster.org
Brevard County
Flagler County
Indian River County
Volusia County
Other florida counties
Maria
Animated model plots of Maria
Nate
Animated model plots of Nate
Ophelia
Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater Satellite of Ophelia
Edited by SkeetoBite (Wed Sep 07 2005 06:46 AM)
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Today's discussion of the wave off the e. coast of Fl from Melbourne NWS.
Quote:
IR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FLARE UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW BAHAMAS THIS MORNING BUT THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF MIA. SO FAR...A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS NOT BEEN CLEARLY IDENTIFIED SO THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS NOT UPGRADED THIS TO A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. ONE COULD FORM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 12Z BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO MIA WHERE IT DISSIPATES IT IN 48 HOURS. SOME BETA ADVECTION MODELS BRING IT NW ACROSS CENT FL AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO OR UP THE FL EAST COAST. THE MOTION LOOKS TO BE QUITE SLOW SO WE WILL BE CONTENDING WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
Sure gave us quite a deluge here in Vero last night and this morning. Has been overcast, raining and gusting all day. How do models do with something this unorganized?
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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what does that title have to do with anything? well, TC 15 has just gone active today in the westpac as well. slow year over there.. not true over on this side of the big blue ball. it's very freaky for the atlantic to be pacing the busiest basin in the world.. which usually has 2 to 3 times more named systems than the atlantic at any given point in the year.
okay, the action:
maria does look sort of like a comet. it has a poleward outflow that's really going strong on the south side, getting dragged in a thousand-mile streak by an upper trough to the east. over the next few days maria should grow a new one extending up into a mid-latitude trough, and sweep cleanly out into the north atlantic.
td 15, future nate, is spinning up out of that mess between bermuda and puerto rico. it may be stronger than the advisory says... will probably deepen more than indicated. i don't think the movement will be quite as pronounced to the west, probably more erratic. if it gets strong enough, it'll potentially fujiwhara-drag the system off florida out to sea.
94L is a classic pattern-induced system. all it really lacks is a .. the pressure will only fall slowly in the area until deep convection forms and concentrates. there's a mini vortex in the low levels pushing in from the northeast... may act to focus the broad, elongated circulation near grand bahama/andros. for potential analogs... mediocre ones... i'll drag up 1981 and jerry 1995. came up out of the south, and got stuck near south florida for a few days in august 1981, before steering northeast/out to sea along the carolinas. if 94L develops enough it can work northward through the ridge... though i don't consider this scenario most likely. more likely it stays fairly weak and gets pushed onto the peninsula a-la jerry 1995. if it goes over land it'll stay weak.. maybe move out into the gulf.. maybe stay over land. factor in that future nate should be close enough to tug on it, and i'd expect a more erratic version of either of the above scenarios. the big threat should be lots of rain... unless something unexpected happens.
for other features.. it's worth noting that some of the models still see an impulse in the gulf that migrates over to texas. doesn't exist right now.. may be something the models are erroneously splitting off of 94L. all the same, eyeball any convection that develops and persists over the gulf.
92L, our old friend, is almost to the islands. it's still got a pronounced turning, just more of a wave than anything else. TWD says there's a low on it... maybe a trough max, not a vortex in the classic sense. no concentration of convection on the axis, still only marginal upper air conditions. storms rarely develop in the central caribbean.. and i don't see it pulling a fast one, so if it's going to do anything it'll probably be further west in a few days, where the flow slows and the upper conditions are forecasted fair.
very strong wave with an associated low passing by the cape verdes. there's enough subsidence to keep it tame for now. as it works further west the waters will get progressively warmer and the air will moisten, so it's really just a matter of maintaining an envelope for a few days, and not getting to close to a shearing trough.
and that's it. no mas. can't fit anything else into the atlantic.
HF 2137z05september
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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Been out of the loop for a couple of days. Family illness stress. Everyone still hanging on though.
Breezy here for the last two days. Real nice out this am - good for yard work. No rain to speak of - just a couple of sprinkles.
Interesting to listen to the local mets when I have time. One says it's gonna rain because the low which will become a TD will come across the state and another that said that it will be a TS and hug the east coast.
Just had to get on and check what may be happening or not.  From what I looked at briefly - it may rain this week!  Hope so - we have islands in the lake that didn't exist last year. 
My best to all. May they all spin fishies.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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hey all thanks again for the bday condolences,..of sourse happy bday ryan heres a TD
i think 15 will stay of the coast, similar to Irene's path, maybe be a huricane as it heads for the coast and turns away from the coast
92L may have to be watched for flare ups of convection as it enters the caribbean, nothing as of now.
93L has become TD#15, see top on 15
94L may or may not cross the state of florida, if it does it will be weak, the question is after it crosses the state, if it does at all, would it go into the GOM? if if doesn't cross the state like Hootowl said, it may ride the E.FLA coast of into the atlantic, all we can do is wait and see.
lets just hope we get fish spinners only in this already busy, devastating season. Thanks again for the happy birthday's..and the sympathy for the events of .
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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the question is after it crosses the state, if it does at all, would it go into the GOM?
I hate to be Capt. Obvious here, but since Florida is a peninsula which separates the GOM from the Atlantic Ocean; if it crosses Florida, it would have to end up in the GOM (unless you're talking about only sort-of cross it and going into GA) 
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Place Temp Humidity Pressure Conditions
Freeport 77 °F / 25 °C 89% 29.90 in / 1012 hPa Overcast ENE at 13 mph / 20 km/h 8:00 PM EDT
Nassau 82 °F / 28 °C 84% 29.86 in / 1011 hPa Mostly Cloudy Variable at 2 mph / 4 km/h 8:00 PM
George Town 82 °F / 28 °C 66% 29.88 in / 1012 hPa Clear WSW at 5 mph / 7 km/h 8:10 PM EDT
Freeport is in the northern Bahamas, Nassau is in the central north Bahamas, and George town is in the southern Bahamas.
Edited by Robert (Mon Sep 05 2005 08:51 PM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Those pressures do not seem very low. We have had extremely low pressures crossing over Florida before and they did not cause a tropical storm or depression to occur. Hopefully the high will help to keep those pressures from falling anymore. I don't mind the rain as I have to work anyway. And, 3 or 4 inches in this sand means nothing but gravy for the water tables. It is not a big deal.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Maria Looks Better then ever with a nice circular eye. I am wondering if she will be the next major hurricane of the 2005 season.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Please Excuse My being Totally Off topic. I have made it back to the Board after a Week away from the "outside". Except for my 2 Local TV stations...Who have kept us in touch with "The Real World". To quote Alan Jackson.
I had spoken with a few of you prior to . Phil, Thank You so much for keeping every one advised on my whereabouts.
I'm at work tonight, and I'm rather busy...as you might expect. I'll try to answer your PM's and Emails as soon as I can.
~danielw AKA Danny
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317288
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Loc: Cairo,Ga.
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Quote:
.. it's worth noting that some of the models still see an impulse in the gulf that migrates over to texas. doesn't exist right now.. may be something the models are erroneously splitting off of 94L. all the same, eyeball any convection that develops and persists over the gulf.
Looks like something brewing down between Mexico and Yucatan....
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON SEP 05 2005
... MARIA NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS ...
...REMAINS FAR FROM LAND BUT A HAZARD TO SHIPPING...
another one for the BOOKS!!!!
Major Cane...NO THREAT to US
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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looks like 15 has been upgraded to nate. no advisory yet...
HF 0301z06september
thought i'd add some other observations...
think the feature near the bahamas may end up with a serpentine sort of track... to the coast, back offshore, then back to the coast.. as it interacts with nate and is potentially dragged by the shortwave progged to get nate.. and then pushed back to the coast as ridging rebuilds. for some reason that track scenario is standing out to me. do think this system... 94L... will be pesky.
looking at the height anomalies the ensembles are showing a few days out... looks like a mean ridge position over the eastern u.s. migrating slowly eastward. nao is positive right now, which favors zonal ridging. the anomaly pattern actually looks sort of like what we had with back in july, only shifted westward. for that reason.. think that for the next two weeks the western gulf coast.. texas in particular.. will be threatened if anything develops in the caribbean. this teleconnects fairly well with the tracks of typhoons in the westpac at this time. on the flip side.. based on the forecast migration of the height anomalies.. the east coast may be in the threat zone late in the month, if the pattern progression follows from there.
HF 0332z06september
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Sep 05 2005 11:32 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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It has been upgraded - wind 35G45kts. Pressure 1005mb. Movement to the west at 2kts.
I've posted an update on the Main News page.
ED
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
the question is after it crosses the state, if it does at all, would it go into the GOM?
I hate to be Capt. Obvious here, but since Florida is a peninsula which separates the GOM from the Atlantic Ocean; if it crosses Florida, it would have to end up in the GOM (unless you're talking about only sort-of cross it and going into GA)
i mean, if its weak enough over florida it could dissapate and be gone lol yea i realize that florida seperates the GOM and atlantic..lol..sorry for the misunderstanding
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 05 2005 11:32 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Welcome back Danny!
Not too much to add to HF's discussion (quite frankly, I've been out all day and haven't had the chance to look at any hurricanes other than those of the Miami persuasion), though I'd watch 92L down the line. It's on the cyclonic shear side (i.e. north side) of some low-level crossequatorial flow and should remain that way into the western Caribbean. Simply put, there's a little bit of extra oomph in the low-level to help start a circulation. Once it slows down a little and gets into a slightly better environment, it could get going again (like it had been forecast to do before). Most likely a western Gulf threat down the line; may end up even like the other three in the southern Gulf.
Maria helps add some oomph to the seasonal numbers; that's 4 major hurricanes now. Nate's not a threat to do that, but it could perk up to near hurricane intensity as it most likely heads out. Right now, a threat to Bermuda down the line...don't think it heads this way.
More once I calm down and get a chance to look at things, probably in a day or so.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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i mean, if its weak enough over florida it could dissapate and be gone lol yea i realize that florida seperates the GOM and atlantic..lol..sorry for the misunderstanding
94L could be going over Florida as early as starting tonight. Here is what this morning's NWS of Melborne update had to say:
MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW AND DRIFT IT TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF FL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING IT OVER THE PENINSULA WED-THURS. STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM/GFS WITH SPECIFICS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
NHC IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPMENT...
WITH A PLANNED RECON FLIGHT INTO THE SYSTEM TODAY...SO FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECT TO REVISION AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.
EXTENDED...FORECAST MAINLY TEMPERED FIELDS AND BLENDING
TOWARD SURROUNDING OFFICES ON . IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND LOOKING AT
SOME HIGH POPS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SQUALLS
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. HIGHER WINDS SHOULD BE OVER
NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS/ATLATIC AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHWEST (?)
I would say this system bears watching today. 
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Ok...quick run down...
Maria - it's done effecting anyone except the fish and the boats. It's weakening, and should continue to weaken as it moves north.
Nate - I expect it to reach weak hurricane based on the models. It's trapped below a ridge of high pressure and isn't moving much. A lot depends on where and how it punches through this ridge. The models keep it well out at sea, but I wouldn't place all my faith in that. So long as that ridge is there we could see it do some erratic movement. has the ridge weakening in a couple of days, and that's when the system punches through. The big question in my mind is: "why is it punching through there?" I don't see much on the pressure models to make it take the model track beyond "that's what most hurricanes tend to do." Still bears watching, but will probably do little more than stir some fish.
94L - The big question. It's looking good on sat presentation this morning. Plenty of moist air around it. It's in a relatively low shear environment. The biggest obsticles to growth appear to be interaction with land. The models are highly divergent on both track and intensity. Some throw it northeast, some north, some northwest, and one likes keeping it almost stationary before dissipating it. And for intensity, dissipates it and Ships brings it to hurricane in 72 hours. Looking at the ridge north of it (the same one that has Nate trapped), I'd dismiss any northward movement for now. Given that the system has shown almost no inclination to move, even though the models have been calling for steady (though divergent) movement over the last several days, I'd say this thing is just going to sit where it is and continue to grow for the next several days until the ridge to the north and northwest weakens. Once that happens, I'd expect it to head northwest toward FL, possibly more westerly. Hard to know the track this far ahead, and impossible to guess on the intensity. There is little to hamper continued growth so long as it stays at sea. One thing working for us if it does cross into the GOM: SSTs still haven't recovered from . They are just slightly below seasonal averages now...instead of WAY above like they were a week ago.
92L - This one we need to watch. It has maintained its characteristics for the past several weaks despite heavy shear environments. It's still a weak wave, but it could easily spawn something once it gets through a weak SAL environment (remnants of a SAL wave from over a week ago) over the next couple of days. This SAL hasn't been speeding west, and in fact 92L has been catching it slowly. The SAL also has been weakening steadily, and give it another couple days and it might no longer be an impedence to anything. On the far side of this SAL we have a moist environment with high SSTs heading toward the Yucatan. Beyond the Yucatan we have high SSTs throughout the western GOM. I'd expect to see 92L begin to do something in 2-3 days as it nears the Yucatan. What...well...it's too early to tell.
Mid-atlantic wave(s) - they are beneath some strong SAL, which will limit development. I'd watch them as they head west though...if they break free of the SAL (or if the SAL moves away from it), we could see it start to do something. Shear is high in that part of the Atlantic though...so it might be a while before anything develops. Something to watch toward the end of the week...maybe early next week. (These two waves are at 45W and 32W - the one at 32W looks far healthier...the one at 45W doesn't even show on sat!)
Africa - another wave/low looks to be moving off of Africa today. It's quite far south -- far enough from the SAL that it might not be impeeded by the dry air. It still has the strong shear environment to deal with, though the shear seems to be receeding west somewhat. If the shear doesn't tear it appart, this could be the next CV system. Both and dont' seem to pick up on it very well, turning it quickly north after it is fully over water. This doesn't make sense to me...but thats what the models show. My opinion is that it will track west. Waves don't tend to move north. It already looks impressive...and it isn't fully off Africa yet!
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 06 2005 08:08 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I just checked the radar loop out of Miami and it appears that the circulation center of 94L is just about on shore at FT Lauderdale. If so this storm will be very shortlived and be another rain event for the south Florida area. That would leave us another 2 weeks or so before we would have to get into alert mode wouldn't it? Great to hear that the Gulf Temps on the East side are still coolish. It definitely feels like fall is in the air here this morning and yesterday morning. Lets get old man winter to visit a little early this year and get this mayhem over with.
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Yeah...I see. It's been sitting that close to the coast for the past 2-3 days...hasn't effected it yet in getting its act together.
If anything, it looks like it's drifting slightly south. Hard to tell though...it might be not moving at all!
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