Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Doubt it will ever get as far South as Ft Lauderdale.
It's very unusual for a storm to move that much SW although, it has happened in the past.
I hate to see Ophelia move so slowly which gives it time to get it's act together.
I think a FL/GA area landfall is a good possibility.
Everyone needs to monitor the storm. basicly has said, they're not too sure of it's
ultimate path.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Eventually is a long way off, nobody knows what this thing is gonna do tomorrow....
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The 06Z does make Ophelia a cat 2 hurricane once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, which is the first time with this system that it takes it above tropical depression strength. The forecast track in the 06Z still has the system approaching an area by 126 hours that REALLY does not need another one of these right now.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I hope so too. I don't want this thing getting strong.
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Thunderbird - I just saw that. Nate on PSU is showing Ophelia instead...while Ophelia is blank. I wish PSU would fix this problem  . I find it hard to see how Ophelia will strengthen while overland like the is forcasting.
Rabbit - is also looping the system. With three global models doing it...and all three reliable models...I think the looping is likely. The question is:
- How close to shore will it be when the looping starts?
- How far south with the looping push it?
- How will the ridge effect the system's strength?
If the system is nearer shore when the looping starts, interaction with shore will weaken the system.
If the system is pushed less southward during the loop (the ridge weakens or doesn't move as fast to the south as is showing), than it will be over land for an extended period of time, probably enough to dissipate it.
If the ridge brings shear over the storm, it doesn't matter how strong Ophelia is, it will weaken. That is what the is thinking now. With a weakening, sheared storm hitting land, the system could mostly dissipate before reaching the gulf.
Let us hope that any one of these cases is true...and Ophelia never makes it to the GOM.
Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 07 2005 11:44 AM)
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Everyone must remember that came across FLA at a slow pace, and in fact, really didn't lose her vortex while over land, though she did come down to a tropical storm, but as soon as it entered the Gulf, well, we all know the story. What am I saying! Even if the storm does come in on FLA like ervyone hopes before strengthening, what is there to stop her from re-developing in the Gulf if this was the case. Absolutely nothing in her way.
Edited by The Force 2005 (Wed Sep 07 2005 11:42 AM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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I am interested in the cloudiness associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface low that is in the Gulf.
NHC said development, if any, would be slow to occur. What are the chances for development? I know all eyes are on Ophelia at
the moment but if anyone could give me an explanation of this I would appreciate it.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
I am interested in the cloudiness associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface low that is in the Gulf. said development, if any, would be slow to occur. What are the chances for development? I know all eyes are on Ophelia at the moment but if anyone could give me an explanation of this I would appreciate it.
Tropical systems develop from lower level lows. For one to develop from an upper level low, that upper level low first has to spawn a lower level low. This is why the chances are low - such spawning isn't common except on very strong upper level systems, and even then it is rare.
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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Here's my thoughts.
Looking at the Water Vapor image:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none
I don't see anything in the United States that would push Ophelia out to sea.
I do see a ridge of high pressure building to the north of the storm, although it is not a very strong ridge.
Based on that, Ophelia will turn slowly to the west in the next 24 hrs, strenghten to a strong cat 1 and come in somewhere between Daytona & Jacksonville, and move slowly across the state, following the bottom of the high pressure.
Let me know your thoughts.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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here are my thoughts anyone from SC-FL should watch Ophelia, if she goes up to SC she will have some more time to strenghten, what do people think?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The is a little off already, so I'm not so sure much to put stock in that.
In any case anyone along from Central Florida to Georgia and South Carolina will need to watch Ophelia over the next few days. Track forecasts are notoriously bad when looping occurs.
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Whereas didn't lose much intensity because she went over the Everglades, Ophelia would likely come into "proper" Florida terrain. Yes, many storms that hit FL restrengthen in the gulf, but at least as many (if not more) make landfall in FL and never exit until they are spat back out into the Atlantic - and farther up the coast.
When there is low confidence in the path, there's no reason to discuss if she hits the GOM - she hasn't made any indication of hitting land yet. Look at the extrap - to become a GOM event, she'd have to go W or SW right now - ain't gonna happen (we hope) 
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Looking at the Melbourne radar, this thing is starting to look impressive. Their certainly isn't any movement going on. If I was on the east coast, the shutters would be out. Way to close for comfort. Things are wrapping up around the center, and I am sure it is strengthening.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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The predictions that were out on , said that she was not going to move S/W like she did. Everyone should go to and look at all the projected paths of , they moved about every 6 hours or so. So, just because a model says this, and another says that, there are always situations where storms never behave like they are modeled to do.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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We're in Melbourne. It's already slightly north of us. Odds are we're safe unless it makes a loop right? In other words we should have several days?
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Just curious, has anybody heard JB's take on this one. The Accuweather track sees to be a bit up in the air as well.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Hello,
I'm thinking that it might be making a jog to the West.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Activate the Tropical Frcast points
Zoom in a couple of clicks, inbetween the gap of the two forcast points there looks like a center moving towards the west.
Thoughts...
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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JB is taking the west across the state track. Beyond that, I don't want to consider. I am watching this one. Would like to see a turn out to sea. Just really don't know.
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Jim
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Here is what Accuweather is saying about "O"
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;imagetype=move
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I would not say safe for melbourne. With the way the steering currents are, I think any place close is iffy. Just keep an eye and ear out.
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Jim
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I'm waiting for the 12Z (about 4 hours away...plus however long it takes to get published...). It should be much more accurate for this storm. I believe the AVN model that the uses as a spawn this time will be the first AVN run seeded after Ophelia became a TS. This will make the more reliable.
As for a southward jog...don't count it out. This thing is moving so slowly it could go any direction.
As for Melbourne radar, it is starting to form the eastern edge of a central circulation now. This thing looks stronger than a TS on radar. It looks to be trying to form an eye. That normally isn't seen until strong cat 2. I don't think it is anywhere near that strong, but it says to me that the storm is more organized than we thought.
--RC
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