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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Katrina/Ophelia [Re: doug]
      #54079 - Wed Sep 07 2005 01:47 PM

BTW the new GDFL which took it across florida and into the gulf does not do that anymore as it takes it into georgia then ALA via north East Florida around Jacksonville then into Georgia.

Edited by ralphfl (Wed Sep 07 2005 01:52 PM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54080 - Wed Sep 07 2005 01:49 PM

Quote:

The apparent eye on the radar is pretty small and it wouldn't be surprising to see it break down at some point. The storm is obviously developing an inner core, though.

The 12Z GFS basically does not move the system at all for 48 hours, then begins to move it out to sea, but then slowly loops it back beginning at about 108 hours and finally brushes it up against Cape Hatteras at about 252 hours. That is just one model solution of many, but the bottom line seems to be that this could be around for awhile and be a pain to forecast.





it was this post...sorry another post came in before i made it so this is the post i was talking about.

But it is not drifting west.What you are seeing is the bands not the center which is not moving or if it is at all its drifting nnw or nw.

Again it was the other post i was talking about as in a eye they only are found in canes.

Edited by ralphfl (Wed Sep 07 2005 01:51 PM)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54081 - Wed Sep 07 2005 01:51 PM

Thanks for the explanation. Our local meterologist said it should bring rain to Mexico and south Texas but no tropical
development.


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: ralphfl]
      #54082 - Wed Sep 07 2005 02:06 PM

Well, to be specific, at 11:00 she was at 28.8 N/79.3W! Now she is 28.8N/79.4W! That's point 1 west isn't it? Most likely that's what some were talking about.

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Reaper
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 45
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla
Re: Katrina/Ophelia [Re: ralphfl]
      #54083 - Wed Sep 07 2005 02:08 PM

ralph,

Please provide a link to the GFDL run that you are referring to.

As the latest one that I looked at, being the 0600 run, still takes it across the state and up towards MS/AL...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: emackl]
      #54085 - Wed Sep 07 2005 02:09 PM

Not really but anyway the center could reform over and over in different spots but that would not be the movement.The storm has a broad center and they casn relocate it many times.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: ralphfl]
      #54086 - Wed Sep 07 2005 02:12 PM

I referred to it as the "apparent" eye because I was not willing to describe it as a true eye. I'm not sure that there really is a scientific definition of an "eye", but weaker systems will have an eye-like feature on radar before they develop an eye that is visible from satellite imagery. Eyes (i.e. a relatively calm region at the center of the storm) don't spontaneously form when the system becomes a hurricane.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: ralphfl]
      #54087 - Wed Sep 07 2005 02:12 PM

.1 or .2 this way or that isnt a real movement unless its continues over a 12hr period at least. You know what ralph ment.
Anyways you can also see the GFDL path on wunderground.com/tropical ......The model I like is usually the NOGAPS but currently the 12Z Ukmet (kinda simular run with the NOGAPS) is my best option for the path it might take.


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John C
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: scottsvb]
      #54088 - Wed Sep 07 2005 02:16 PM

Melbourne Radar shows a good center.

Melb Radar


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: ]
      #54089 - Wed Sep 07 2005 02:53 PM

It'll be interesting to see what the GFDL does on it's next run. All but the GFDL now have that eventual NE loop senario (to some degree).

www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_model.html


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: native]
      #54090 - Wed Sep 07 2005 03:16 PM

12z GFDL cat 2 up the coast in near JAX still not with the rest

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: KornR]
      #54092 - Wed Sep 07 2005 03:38 PM

Quote:

Please help me understand the diff. between the model/plots.... The BAMM model is the one that caught my eye, what goes into this model that makes it so diff. than the others?




This post came in this a.m. and I have been looking for the answer ever since. Probably about a month ago, HankFrank or Clarke or MikeC or someone else WAY SMARTER THAN ME answered this question eloquently (and somewhat longwindedly), but I can't find the post to pass it on. Does anyone else know where this post is?

Edited by MadDog (Wed Sep 07 2005 03:39 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: MadDog]
      #54093 - Wed Sep 07 2005 03:45 PM

Here you go Maddog: This was from Clark;
MissBecky -- the BAM series of models only take into account the steering flow and the Beta drift (related to Coriolis) of the storm. That's pretty much it, making them somewhat limited. The BAMM takes into account the middle levels as those steering the storm, the BAMD most of the atmospheric, and the BAMS (often not used) just the low levels.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: pcola]
      #54094 - Wed Sep 07 2005 03:49 PM

I also found this explanation:The BAM-series models take the GFS analysis & forecasts and computer trajectories from the storm's initial position out to 120hr. The BAMS uses the 850-700mb layer, the BAMM 850-400mb, and BAMD the 850-200mb layer, with a small correction for the Beta effect (due to Coriolis; generally <2kt in forward motion towards the northwest). Note that the GFS has been consistent in decoupling the low-level and upper-level circulations of Franklin since its inception, taking the surface features to the north and east while meandering the upper-level features back to the west and southwest.

The two BAM-series models we've been seeing are the BAMM and BAMD, neither of which include the lowest levels to any large degree in their forecasts. Thus, their forecasts are largely going to be a representation of what the GFS views as the mid & upper-level steering pattern. Given what I noted above, it's not too much of a surprise to see them steer the storm more towards the west and towards land. This suggests that the GFS has either too strong a ridge, too weak a shortwave trough, or some combination thereof. No matter the forecast, the GFS solution is a rather dubious one for Franklin (unless you believe the storm will become sheared apart and fizzle out through time, which wouldn't be a bad thing necessarily), making the BAMD and BAMM solutions rather dubious at best themselves.

You can't entirely discount all of the forecasts, but I'd rather go with a model that represents the storm better -- such as the NOGAPS or even our MM5 (which uses the GFS initial conditions to start the model, but diverges completely from there) -- when making a forecast. Both of those models -- and most of the others -- agree on taking it north and then northeast, with varying degrees of speed through time.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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John C
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: MadDog]
      #54095 - Wed Sep 07 2005 03:53 PM

This link (article) may give you an overall better understanding of weather models.

Forecasters rely on computer models (USATODAY) Article


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: ]
      #54096 - Wed Sep 07 2005 03:58 PM

I suspect the storm won't gain much strength in the short term, I see some shear coming in from the east, which is going to keep the storm inhibited on the east (and a bit on the southern side as well...)

It's just wobbling right now, no real movement. And I still can't see any real movement to the north ...

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: ]
      #54097 - Wed Sep 07 2005 04:01 PM

The center has become exposed from under the CDO on visable sat. Looks like shear from the east to west may help hinder development. I certainly dont think will be a hurricane anytime soon if the shear continues. We'll have to wait and see.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Bloodstar]
      #54098 - Wed Sep 07 2005 04:04 PM

the met. on channel 2 news said the nice wether up here in the northeast causes everything to spin down there, and also that the nice weather with bring a system up here and hitt he northeast..i am not making this up im just asking can this be true..becuase they said like the system gets stuck in the high pressure. But he said one of the ones out there and i dontt hink Ophelia is what hes tlakign about so idk..im a little confused.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
~1600 Eastern Recon Data [Re: MikeC]
      #54100 - Wed Sep 07 2005 04:13 PM

Estimates winds at 50kts at the surface and that the pressure continues its fall, down to 996.

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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
Joe Bastardi's forecast [Re: jaxmike]
      #54101 - Wed Sep 07 2005 04:37 PM

I don't want to dredge up another JB vs. NHC discussion (I agree with each one at different times), but I find it intersting that he still thinks it'll cross Florida into the Gulf - especially since he lowered the path to the south. I have yet to see any model support for this nor anyone here discussing it. I wondered if anyone else had any thoughts on this. Of course, there's isn't really model support for anything at this point. I figure a north Florida hit or the loop that all the other models see.

Boy, I hope the latest GFDL doesn't come to fruition! YIKES!


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