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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Ryan]
      #54102 - Wed Sep 07 2005 04:43 PM

There has been a very intense flare-up of convection on the west-side of the system in the last hour or so. This will probably lead to some further intensification, though how much depends on how far the convection can wrap around the center. It may also lead to some wobbling of the center, though I suppose it already has been wobbling to begin with.

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Missers
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 4
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #54103 - Wed Sep 07 2005 04:44 PM

I just wanted to say the 5:00 dicussion is a hoot. I can see them pulling out their hair at the NHC.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Missers]
      #54104 - Wed Sep 07 2005 04:51 PM

I picture a whole bunch of people at the NHC looking at a computer screen scratching their heads and trying to figure out who is the best writter in the group.

The weather in Boca has been great today for the first time in 5 days.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Missers]
      #54105 - Wed Sep 07 2005 04:57 PM

LOL... Many of them do not have hair !!! Guess we are in for some more gloomy days of rain and rain showers. 5 days yuck !! The good news is that it doesnt seem like its been able to get rid of the shear, but seems fiesty never the less. Guess we will just have to wait. I am glad so far it seems like the "CITY OF LOUISIANA" is doing a little better.

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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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G8trgrad
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: NewWatcher]
      #54106 - Wed Sep 07 2005 05:00 PM

Hi, I am new to posting but I have been using this site since last year.

Can someone explain how different Ophelia is from last year's Hurricane Jean....if I remember correctly Jean also looped back because of a blocking ridge to her north.

Thanks


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: ]
      #54107 - Wed Sep 07 2005 05:00 PM

MadDog,

Tried your link to the USA article about the computer models but it said "object not found". I'd love to see this link- would you mind verifying it and posting it again? Thanks!

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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: pryord1]
      #54108 - Wed Sep 07 2005 05:07 PM

Quote:

MadDog,

Tried your link to the USA article about the computer models but it said "object not found". I'd love to see this link- would you mind verifying it and posting it again? Thanks!




Actually, this was supposed to be directed to JohnC. Sorry- I'm still trying to learn my way around the site!

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: pryord1]
      #54110 - Wed Sep 07 2005 05:10 PM

Sure does look alot better over the last hour and radar shows the NW side of the center trying to wrap around but it is still fighting some moderate shear .

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...&duration=4

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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Joe Bastardi's forecast [Re: disneyfanfl]
      #54112 - Wed Sep 07 2005 05:12 PM

Disneyfanfl, JB had it coming into Daytona then into the NE GOM. Where does he put it now, if you don't mind?? BTW, the shear has lessened quite a bit, and deep convection is blowing up near the center. Basically still stationary.

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Joe Bastardi's forecast [Re: Steve H1]
      #54113 - Wed Sep 07 2005 05:16 PM

As a side note, the NHC has dropped the TS Warning south of Cocoa Beach, which I knew they would do, but weird since it went north .1 since the last advisory. Must mean they don't think it will loop

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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
Re: Joe Bastardi's forecast [Re: Steve H1]
      #54115 - Wed Sep 07 2005 05:30 PM

Quote:

Disneyfanfl, JB had it coming into Daytona then into the NE GOM. Where does he put it now, if you don't mind??


This is not the time for him to get one right. Accuweather

Edited by Black Pearl (Wed Sep 07 2005 05:39 PM)


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: Joe Bastardi's forecast [Re: Black Pearl]
      #54117 - Wed Sep 07 2005 05:48 PM

Boy, Black Pearl, you ain't kiddin'! That doesn't look good at all. I like NHC's forecast much better, but it might not be realistic. Let them scratch their heads for awhile- as long as the overall model consensus stays true. Just hoping....

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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Joe Bastardi's forecast [Re: Steve H1]
      #54118 - Wed Sep 07 2005 05:50 PM

Quote:

As a side note, the NHC has dropped the TS Warning south of Cocoa Beach, which I knew they would do, but weird since it went north .1 since the last advisory. Must mean they don't think it will loop




They dropped it because a TS warning means that Tropical Storm conditions are expected within 24 hours. Since it is meandering north, TS conditions are no longer expected within 24 hours, for areas south of Cocoa Beach.

They spelled out that anything can happen in their latest discussion, but they don't believe anything to mean any trend southward.


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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: pryord1]
      #54119 - Wed Sep 07 2005 06:01 PM

The post listed does work. It shows a "404 Object Not Found" code, but if you scroll down, all the information on the subject and the subsequent links are still valid.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wmodels.htm


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: MadDog]
      #54120 - Wed Sep 07 2005 06:07 PM

all volusia county schools closed tommorrow!

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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: MadDog]
      #54121 - Wed Sep 07 2005 06:11 PM

Thanks, MadDog- you were correct. I guess I didn't have the patience to scroll down and find out for myself!

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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KornR
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: High Springs, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #54122 - Wed Sep 07 2005 06:44 PM

This is new to me (old to lots of u ppl I assume). I like the way it lets you visualize the relation of what is coming towards the coast vs away... speed shown.

Any comments on what to read from this would be great...


Interesting product from NWS, shows relative velocity of ??? from Melbourne

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"Honey, was that the cat that just flew past the window?"


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Joe Bastardi's forecast [Re: Black Pearl]
      #54123 - Wed Sep 07 2005 06:50 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Disneyfanfl, JB had it coming into Daytona then into the NE GOM. Where does he put it now, if you don't mind??


This is not the time for him to get one right. Accuweather




I have just lost all remaining respect I had for Accuweather. That's bonkers!!!

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: KornR]
      #54124 - Wed Sep 07 2005 06:50 PM

Quote:

Interesting product from NWS, shows relative velocity of ??? from Melbourne




NEXRAD Relative Velocity has been one of those things that NWS has had for a long time but hasn't published. You've always been able to get it through Intellicast. There are a lot of other radar products that are available to Mets that aren't available to us...I wish sites would make more of that available

========

I'm disliking Ophelia. There is just too little to push it this way or that. It's a watcher...a watcher way too close to the coast.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54126 - Wed Sep 07 2005 07:13 PM

What in the He** is going on with Accuweather...I go to there site and they have Ophelia hitting Mobile AL on Tuesday afternoon!!!!!!!!!!! What basis for this, or are they trying to get some headlines by scaring the Gulf Coast? I was planning a business trip Monday but this just makes things difficult, especially when the local Pcola station subscribes to Accuweather! Thank goodness Santa Rosa County voted to go "wet" last night for the first time since 1927, I need a drink!!!

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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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