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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Ophelia Stalls
      #54114 - Wed Sep 07 2005 09:28 PM

It is a truism that weathermen don't care much for tropical systems that don't move - especially when they are parked near your back door! Tropical Storm Ophelia has come to a complete halt to the east of the Kennedy Space Center. There are some indications that the storm should move to the east - Hurricane Nate (well south of Bermuda) has started to slowly nudge to the northeast. There are some indications that Ophelia should move to the west - an upper level low previously over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico has moved to the west and is now over extreme northeast Mexico.

High pressure in the central Caribbean Sea south of Haiti is drifting slowly to the west and a large high pressure ridge over the Mid-Atlantic states is moving very slowly to the east, so movement to the north or south is not an option. The eastern outer cloud deck of Ophelia is moving eastward and the western upper clouds from the storm are moving westward and the core of the cyclone is trapped in the middle with no steering currents to move it.

The storm is located over warm water near the Gulfstream so it should intensify...but...some dryer air has been drawn into the system from the west southwest so the storm might not intensify. The net result of all this meteorological analysis is that both movement and intensity of Ophelia are held in check. The latest forecast from NHC does intensify Ophelia to hurricane strength while moving her very little over the next five days and this certainly could happen - or not. It is also certainly possible that the dry air entrainment may eventually dissipate Ophelia in place.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Cocoa Beach. Expect bands of scattered showers (and perhaps a thunderstorm or two) especially along the beaches of central and northern Florida along with brief gusty winds forever (or until Ophelia decides to move).
ED

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