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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: Ophelia [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54271 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:57 PM

On the radar, does it look like it is trying to form a new center of rotation just sw of the original one? I could be wrong...............
radar

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances

Edited by Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser (Thu Sep 08 2005 02:58 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: 1:20 PM West Central Florida Discussion [Re: CoalCracker]
      #54272 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:58 PM

THAT WAS A GOOD DISCUSSION...CONSISTENT WITH SOME THINGS SAID HERE THIS MORNING.

--------------------
doug


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Ophelia [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #54273 - Thu Sep 08 2005 03:05 PM

My guess would be that what you see is a sign of intensification and a closing off of the COC witrh convection. If it can maintain that structure the storm can now deepen a bit. Previous presentation suggested dry air into the center open on the north and east at times. The location of that COC seems to be a bit SW of the previous interpolated center in my opinion.

--------------------
doug


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ophelia [Re: doug]
      #54274 - Thu Sep 08 2005 03:15 PM

One nice thing about having a stationary, developing tropical cyclone within radar range is that you can watch the thing evolve from a depression to potentially a hurricane on the radar, which is an evolution that we normally don't get to see. Now if it would just head out to sea after giving us this nice lesson.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Ophelia [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54275 - Thu Sep 08 2005 03:20 PM

very nice RSO

Ophelia

looking at the outflow..... looks alot better this afternoon than this morning... would expect winds to be up in the 5pm adv... and near a hurricane (70-75mph) tonight at 11pm.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Ophelia [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #54276 - Thu Sep 08 2005 03:31 PM

Makes a nice presentation in the latest few visual frames ...could be near H1 now.

--------------------
doug


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Ophelia [Re: doug]
      #54277 - Thu Sep 08 2005 03:43 PM

on
AF300 0616A OPHELIA OB 07
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

on outbound leg
MF283 M0793 MF067

67kts.... at flight level!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: Ophelia [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #54278 - Thu Sep 08 2005 03:49 PM

Quote:

on
AF300 0616A OPHELIA OB 07
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

on outbound leg
MF283 M0793 MF067

67kts.... at flight level!




How do you converts kts to mph?

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: Ophelia [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #54279 - Thu Sep 08 2005 03:49 PM

77.1022 mph

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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Getting Concerned [Re: MikeC]
      #54280 - Thu Sep 08 2005 03:51 PM

I wasn't overyly concerned about Ophelia until today. To me, being the novice weather watcher that I am, would think that the longer she stays over open water, the stronger she's going to get. Can someone dampen my fear a little bit that she's not going to strengthen TOO MUCH? Charley, Frances and Jeanne scared the you know what out of me last year and we're 50 miles inland, pretty much due east of the Cape. We lost our roof between Francis and Jeanne. I really don't want to have to experience that again. Is there any reason she won't strengthen past a Cat 1? Please tell me there is...........

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Getting Concerned [Re: FireAng85]
      #54281 - Thu Sep 08 2005 03:52 PM

of course I meant due WEST of the Cape..... see what this stress is doing to me?

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Ophelia [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #54282 - Thu Sep 08 2005 03:58 PM

Multiply by 1.15. For example, 65 knots x 1.15=74.75 mph. 100 knots x 1.15=115 mph.

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moose47
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Ophelia [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #54283 - Thu Sep 08 2005 03:58 PM

Multiply knots by 1.15 to get the mph and then multiply by 0.9 to get the surface winds in mph. Basically the flight level winds in knots roughly correspond to the surface winds in mph. So 67 knots at flight level would be 77 mph. Since typically surface winds are 90% of the flight level winds, you get 69 mph at the surface. Someone correct me if I am wrong here....

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Ophelia [Re: moose47]
      #54284 - Thu Sep 08 2005 04:02 PM

Well most all of the global models 12Z runs anyway take it into the fl ga border area after a loop...per the NOGAPS ukmet and gdfl.

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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: Ophelia [Re: moose47]
      #54285 - Thu Sep 08 2005 04:03 PM

Thanks to all of the answers!

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ophelia [Re: moose47]
      #54286 - Thu Sep 08 2005 04:05 PM

I believe that when they are flying at the 850mb level, as they have been so far with Ophelia, they use a 20% reduction in flight-level winds, so you would take the flight-level winds and multiply by 0.8 to get the estimated surface winds. When they are flying at the 700 mb level, they use a 10% reduction, so you would multiply by 0.9.

Those estimates may not be used if there is other evidence of the max surface winds. In this case, they can look at radar data as well to estimate the wind field.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Thu Sep 08 2005 04:06 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Ophelia [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54287 - Thu Sep 08 2005 04:13 PM

well almost a cane now


URNT12 KNHC 082001
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/19:43:50Z
B. 28 deg 34 min N
079 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1316 m
D. 70 kt
E. 42 deg 015 nm
F. 130 deg 066 kt
G. 041 deg 012 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 19 C/ 1534 m
J. 24 C/ 1528 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C15
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0616A OPHELIA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 19:40:00 Z MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 36 / 6NM

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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moose47
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Ophelia [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #54288 - Thu Sep 08 2005 04:17 PM

Estimated surface winds of 70 knots? That would be 80 mph and would make it a hurricane. We'll see at 5:00 I guess.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ophelia [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #54289 - Thu Sep 08 2005 04:17 PM

If the eyeballed wind estimate of 70 knots is accurate, it already is a hurricane, though it seems they usually don't seem to put a lot of weight on those wind estimates. I don't think they have sampled the SW quadrant of the storm yet, so it will be interesting to see if they can find stronger winds at flight-level.

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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: Ophelia [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54290 - Thu Sep 08 2005 04:21 PM

Wouldn't it be a little over 72 mph?
70kts x 1.15 x 0.9

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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