traceyd
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Ok, I have a really dumb question. Looking at water vapor images, it appears that the western edge of the high to the north is breaking down as well. If this western edge break downs sooner than the northern portion of the high, could that cause the strom to move more northerly, similar to the convection in the GOM?
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Clark
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It might, but the predominant flow from that area is towards the SE & ESE. That would tend to dampen any sustained northward motion. As noted a little while ago, a general east to east-northeast motion is likely at a slow rate of speed over the next 2-3 days. This is in agreement with the later forecast posted by WXMAN RICHIE a few posts back as well.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Ok, I have a really dumb question. Looking at water vapor images, it appears that the western edge of the high to the north is breaking down as well. If this western edge break downs sooner than the northern portion of the high, could that cause the strom to move more northerly, similar to the convection in the GOM?
It would seem to me that that would make Ophelia move WEST, not NORTH.... maybe I misunderstand what you're saying though.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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k___g
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The winds here in Orlando have noticeably picked up this evening. Not anything significant, however the winds are now more "steady"...different than what they have been for the past two days. Any thoughts or comments?
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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That's weird, because I'm just south of Melbourne, close to the intracoastal, and the breezes have been fairly light all day.
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traceyd
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I agree it would be west and then north as the high would no longer be above it. I am definited not a met, just an observer. However, the western edge does appear to be breaking down quickly.
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Storm Hunter
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looking at some sats and some local obs in florida.....i think the dry that is just to the north and west of her is moving closer to her than i first thought would happen.... i think we may see some weaken late tonight and on friday....and the upwelling will help too....looks like the dry air has made to tally-aplach. and still is moving to the se towards the ophelia....
WV sat
orange is Dry air at mid and upper levels of atmosphere.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hugh
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Quote:
I agree it would be west and then north as the high would no longer be above it. I am definited not a met, just an observer. However, the western edge does appear to be breaking down quickly.
On IR that's definately true right now, but not on radar. I suspect it might be diurnal, because it happened last night too. Might also be interaction with land? Who knows with this storm. It still does not appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Steve H1
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Yep, Ophelia is definitely hurting now. Dry air or upwelling , probably both are killing her. She will survive somehow I would think, but we are quickly getting half a storm.
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Hugh
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Yep, Ophelia is definitely hurting now. Dry air or upwelling , probably both are killing her. She will survive somehow I would think, but we are quickly getting half a storm.
What hurricane are you looking at? Ophelia looked a LOT worse 24 hours ago than she does now, and 12 hours ago too I think.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Old Sailor
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Before you say anything Ophelia could be downgraded to a TS. at 11:00 PM. wait before you judge.
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h2ocean
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Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Agree Old Sailor, still looking organized on radar, but we shall see when the next recon comes in. Also Steve H1, I am on S. Merritt Island and we have seen winds gusting in the upper 30s with a peak of 40 in the late afternoon in rain bands http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather/currentwx.gif
Also of interest, the barometer here has been up and down today, but the last hour or so, it has been slightly increasing more...hopefully that means a turn to the east or ne. Only time will tell....
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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Hugh
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Quote:
Before you say anything Ophelia could be downgraded to a TS. at 11:00 PM. wait before you judge.
True. It was not a 75mph hurricane when it looked much worse than it does now. Looking at the satellite I would not be shocked if it were down to 65-70. That's hardly "dead", though.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Multi-Decadal Signal
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Post deleted by the ongoing active Atlantic multi-decadal signal
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ralphfl
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looks to me to be doing what the gdfl has it doing going due east but slow.If you look at the loops it looks to be slow crawl to the east IMO.
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Steve H1
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OK, maybe "killing" was overstating it a bit, but she has lost much of her convection during the last 4 hours; has shrunk quite a bit. Still a TS no doubt, but how long can she sit and spin in this environment?
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h2ocean
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Quote:
Please direct me to the site where the projected tracks from the different models are shown all together. 
I'll take this post down ASAP...
Here are two sites....
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_16.gif
http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/maps...473&img.y=2
With each new thread here on the board, we post links to several different model sites after the news article. There are a couple of such links with the current article, including a link to the excellent Colorado St. site with all of the major models (except the private Superensemble) and their output. Just a heads-up. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Fri Sep 09 2005 02:39 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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still a cane....
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES... 130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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gailwarning
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Satellite Beach FL
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So hurricane-force winds extending out 10 mi further than the last advisory? And do my untrained eyes detect some slight nnw movement?
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HanKFranK
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maria heading out, nate following suit... by the end of the weekend we should be down to just ophelia in the basin. looks like the crawling ne motion has finally begun. track should be more or less in that general direction for the next couple of days, perhaps a little faster at times. i don't think the intensity will change a whole lot until it stalls again around sunday/monday. at that time, should be at roughly 30/76. forecast track i have in mind is more or less the official, just more exaggerated to the west at the end of the forecast period. whether the storm tracks back over upwelled waters should determine the end intensity... if it goes back to the east coast of florida it probably won't be very strong... ga or sc it might be a bit stronger. it'll probably come back to the coast between tuesday and thursday next week in the cat 1- cat 3 range. clark has it pegged as a cat 2 already and the philosophy looks good to that.
nothing doing elsewhere in the basin. has reactivated and has become strongly inhibiting in the western hemisphere. has been out of phase for most of the season... and it should keep the deep tropics quiet for much of this month if it persists like it is. with the strong highs and pattern-pulse near the eastern u.s. in play already that may dictate much of the remaining activity this month. enhancing may get back around october and liven things back up.. but the rest of september may be a good deal quieter than the last couple of weeks.
HF 0303z09september
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