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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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berserkr
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 13
Loc: SC
Re: ophelia in loiter mode [Re: HanKFranK]
      #54365 - Fri Sep 09 2005 05:08 AM

downgraded to TS strength at 65mph. The models are all over the place with this thing

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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: berserkr]
      #54368 - Fri Sep 09 2005 07:48 AM

Haven't posted in ages, but the 5 a.m. NHC path has me concerned about my mother, who lives alone in Sun City Hilton Head just north of Savannah.

(I'm also posting as a bit of a "test" since I can't believe that no one else has posted for the last hour and a half.)

Skeetobite's map of the models seems a bit old now and I don't seem to be able to open some of the other spaghetti model sites listed at the top of this thread. Can anyone point me to alternate places that might have groupings of updated models. If I'm heading up to help my mother with a possible evacuation, I need to start making plans soon.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #54369 - Fri Sep 09 2005 07:52 AM

hard to make plans on a forcast that is 5 days out, especially when the models are not in agreement.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #54370 - Fri Sep 09 2005 08:00 AM

Suzie even the NRL page is not allowing its model page to be enlarged and needs updating. The best preliminary advice is to find out what the mets are saying that are up in your mother's area. You might go to the nearest NWS area forecast to see what the locals are saying about the weather conditions. This is the only thing anyone can do until the official forecast becomes more clear.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 24
Loc: South Carolina
Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #54371 - Fri Sep 09 2005 08:06 AM

Suzie:

At least your mom has pretty direct access to I-95. Don't know how long she has lived there, but evacuations from Hilton Head can be pretty messy affairs with basically one way out. NWS Charleston is saying forecast doesn't "bode well" for SE GA and Southern SC, but too early to tell.

Don't know what your circumstances are in terms of having time to get to your mom and then have it turn out to be unnecessary, but I recall stories of folks sitting on highway 278 for 8-10 hours, so my advice is obviously watch carefully, but if you can, err on the side of "too soon".

Bill


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #54372 - Fri Sep 09 2005 08:06 AM

Quote:

Suzie even the NRL page is not allowing its model page to be enlarged and needs updating. The best preliminary advice is to find out what the mets are saying that are up in your mother's area. You might go to the nearest NWS area forecast to see what the locals are saying about the weather conditions. This is the only thing anyone can do until the official forecast becomes more clear.




The "official" forecast may not become clear for a week, unfortunately. FWIW I'm looking at the models on WeatherUnderground and they are up-to-date (2am, except for NOGAPS which is 8pm). The 8am runs aren't posted yet but it's only 8:05 ET, give them time. Looks like the models are putting Ophelia somewhere along the Georgia/South Carolina coast in 5-7 days, after a brief excursion out to sea.

Having said that, as of the 8am ET advisory... Ophelia is once again moving nowhere. She's stalled again!

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Fri Sep 09 2005 08:08 AM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: Hugh]
      #54373 - Fri Sep 09 2005 08:09 AM

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

The above link gives this information as of 7:00 am.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
Re: Ophelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: NewWatcher]
      #54374 - Fri Sep 09 2005 08:13 AM

"hard to make plans on a forcast that is 5 days out, especially when the models are not in agreement. "

No kidding! LOL!

Where my mother lives they STRONGLY suggest that they not wait till mandatory evacuations are announced, because the exit roads get so clogged by all the people coming off the one bridge from Hilton Head Island. (They direct the Sun City people across 278, going north a bit before going toward I-95.) Add to that lead time my half-day drive just to get to her house and you can see why I'm keeping a close eye on the situation.

(At least my question has proven that people are awake and reading. Ha!)


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: Hugh]
      #54375 - Fri Sep 09 2005 08:21 AM

Good Grief, the models on WU are such a mess I can't tell what that BAMM is doing. All I know is it has it in central Florida at some point..yikes. Can anyone else tell what's it's doing?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_model.html


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: emackl]
      #54376 - Fri Sep 09 2005 08:24 AM

The spagetti models are really spagetti for this storm:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

A full 360 degree possibility of movement now!


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WisconsinWill
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: Madison, WI
Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: emackl]
      #54377 - Fri Sep 09 2005 08:30 AM

Quote:

Good Grief, the models on WU are such a mess I can't tell what that BAMM is doing. All I know is it has it in central Florida at some point..yikes. Can anyone else tell what's it's doing?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_model.html




You can see the text output for NHC's guidance suite here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR

It's not as visual as the graphics obviously, but you can pull out a tracking map and plot the model of your choice by hand.


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54378 - Fri Sep 09 2005 08:30 AM

Am I reading this right? It looks the the BAMM has it going SW from where she is. That can't be right. In other words it must be way off so I should ignore that for now correct?

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: emackl]
      #54379 - Fri Sep 09 2005 08:58 AM

It has got to be frustrating to try and forecast this storm. Everyone on the east coast is waiting to see what she will do.
Are there any waves out there that are worth watching for development?


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: emackl]
      #54380 - Fri Sep 09 2005 09:05 AM

I'm no expert on this but its my understanding that the BAMM model is the least accurate. Everytime I look at models it seems to be going in some totally different direction than all the rest. My advice to you is not try to analyze all these on your own but listen and look at what the NHC is saying and projecting.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area? [Re: emackl]
      #54381 - Fri Sep 09 2005 09:12 AM

I think the BAMM was trying to make a tornado watch box.

Model soup right now. I think NHC's idea is currently best for a conservative basis. Maybe if motion remains settled today, the models can get a better grip on it. After she passes 30N, the forecast enters the twilight zone. I am hoping for the out to sea forecast; but it just seems like there are enough reasons for that not to happen. Can probabbly put ping pong balls with model names in a hopper and pull one out at the moment.

--------------------
Jim


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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
Strengthening Again? [Re: MikeC]
      #54382 - Fri Sep 09 2005 09:45 AM

Latest recon shows minimum pressure at 983. This would be an 8 mb drop in the past few hours. Is she getting her act together, again?

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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: Strengthening Again? [Re: jaxmike]
      #54383 - Fri Sep 09 2005 09:55 AM

Why is the 5am update the lastest update on the NHC web site? Where's the 8am update? What else did you find out besides the pressure? Please let me know. I can't tell if it still moving NE or not. Thanks

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Strengthening Again? [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #54384 - Fri Sep 09 2005 10:05 AM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200516.public.html


try this

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
Re: Strengthening Again? [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #54385 - Fri Sep 09 2005 10:16 AM

Quote:

Why is the 5am update the lastest update on the NHC web site? Where's the 8am update? What else did you find out besides the pressure? Please let me know. I can't tell if it still moving NE or not. Thanks




The normal updates are done every 6 hours at the 5's and the 11's. They do intermediate brief updates on the 2's and 8's though when a storm is a threat to land. After checking the NHC site I realized that the 8AM is not showing up, so, I would suggest looking on the front page of this site where it lists the information for the active storms.

The pressure I found on the links to the recon data on this site.

Seems to not be moving at all again.


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Strengthening Again? [Re: jaxmike]
      #54386 - Fri Sep 09 2005 10:27 AM

Does anyone know what happens if she stalls again this early? It wasn't taken into account was it? From this a.m. disco it refers to slow movement to the NE for a day or two! If she stalls now will it help to send her out to sea or could it mean trouble sooner for someone on the coast? I don't really understand the ridging well enough to figure it out on my own.

Also, do you think she's stalling or just moving very slow?


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