Reaper
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 45
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla
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000
URNT12 KNHC 091355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1326Z
B. 29 DEG 21 MIN N
78 DEG 53 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1285 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 024 DEG 51 KT
G. 315 DEG 49 NM
H. 984 MB
I. 21 C/ 1560 M
J. 23 C/ 1638 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0916A OPHELIA OB 14
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 67 KT SE QUAD 1332Z
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 09, 2005
...Ophelia moving away from the U.S coast...for now...
at 11am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the East Coast
of Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler Beach...and a
the tropical storm watch from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina
Beach have benn discontinued.
Interests from northern Florida through the Carolinas should closely
monitor the progress of Ophelia during the next few days.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 29.5 north...longitude 78.9 west or about
130 miles...east of Daytona Beach Florida.
Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph and this
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Ophelia
has the potential to become a hurricane later today or Saturday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center.
Latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA reconnaissance
plane was 983 mb...29.03 inches.
A high risk of dangerous rip currents exists from Florida northward
through the Carolinas.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...29.5 N... 78.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...65
mph. Minimum central pressure... 983 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Wait a minute....984 mb??? She must be strengthening or there is a typo. Is she a hurricane again? Seems pretty much still SSTationary. Where has E. Dunham been with this storm? Does he have an opinion on this?
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Notice it says 2 things it is moving and then it says "for now" still think this is going to the GA coast IMO.
the has it going into GA SC border Late tues or early wed.
Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 09 2005 02:42 PM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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5-day out...Charleston/HH landfall.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_5day.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Quote:
Wait a minute....984 mb??? She must be strengthening or there is a typo. Is she a hurricane again? Seems pretty much still SSTationary. Where has E. Dunham been with this storm? Does he have an opinion on this?
If you read the 11am disc they explain why the pressure and then winds.But if they don't find the winds they can't just up it due to pressure.So its a TS till they say otherwise.
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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It looks like there is high pressure coming out of the NE. According to the time it gets here that is what is sterring it into the Carolinas. What if that high comes faster? Will it be a different sterring path? Follow the link of the gfs
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
Edited by Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser (Fri Sep 09 2005 02:56 PM)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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The models are now narrowing from a bowl of spaghetti to a giant beach ball aimed somewhere between Miami and Hatteras. There is now consensus that the storm will not go out to sea. Now is the time the next few days that a coastal landfall zone will begin to narrow. Look for trends over time (as an example the has shifted its landfall from Charleston SC, to Savannah, to now just north of JAX the last 3 runs). It all likely depends how far north and how far offshore the big O gets, before we'll know with greater certainty. Remember, the global models just a few days ago had her drifting NW to just offshore JAX, and we know she just sat off of the Cape for more than 24 hours. So...........
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RJB
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raine
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: Evans GA.
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Hi everyone, I am new here, getting a little worried about the storm. I live in Augusta GA. Does anyone know how this storm could affect us here. I have never been in one this close. Only rain and some wind from Hugo in western NC. which was not alot. I am not really sure what I need to do to prepare my family, if this storm comes close or over us. We are about 140 miles from Hilton Head and Savannah. Thanks for any info.
Edited by raine (Fri Sep 09 2005 03:29 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Raine, you are far enough inland to where you should not have to worry too much... the worst you would likely have to worry about would be tropical storm conditions (heavy rain, winds 40-50 mph). As long as you are in a sturdy building, there shouldn't be too much to worry about. Flooding might be another concern, but it is too early to tell how much of a heavy rain threat Ophelia will be when and if it comes inland.
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prideman
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Darlington, SC
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Quote:
It looks like there is high pressure coming out of the NE. According to the time it gets here that is what is sterring it into the Carolinas. What if that high comes faster? Will it be a different sterring path? Follow the link of the gfs
News here in Myrtle Beach area are saying it will be upgraded to hurricane status again on the next advisory. Also telling everyone to get prepared early in case evacuation is called. Watching it real close. This thing could really do about anything it wants right now. I remember it was a High in the NE that steered Hugo our way, but Hugo took aim far out and made a straight shot at us at high speed.
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prideman
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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Raine,
Suggest you go to the Augusta GA Emergency Managment site for information relative to Disaster Preparedness, notices, etc. This far out it's impossible to tell what, if any, effects you'll see from Ophelia but being prepared and having a plan, just in case something happens, will set your mind at ease.
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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But what if the high comes out of the NE faster then the models are showing?
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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wiley
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
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Anyone know what's up with the website??? It's still listing 5 am info.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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The person who updates the site is on his lunch break....supersizing his fries.LOL, Anyways they might have a update problem on their info there. Try other links.
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raine
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: Evans GA.
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Thanks guys for the info. I hope if it does not come this way, and that the rain will not be bad if it does, I live in a very sturdy stucco home, but our sub. has problems with flooding, We had special drainage put in( $15,000) to keep the water flow from coming to the house. We can get hard rains now and the drainage ditch will overflow, my front yard looks like a lake and our poor neighbors get it bad to. I will go to GA Ema site. And I will also keep updated from everyones posts here. Thanks again, Raine
PS. Do not know about storms alot.. But I have a very stupid question.. Can the storm travel up the savannah river.. I know this is a stupid question, sorry
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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 24
Loc: South Carolina
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Does anyone have a link to an intensity forecast? 5 am discussion referenced, I believe, SHIPS taking it to a major in 36 hours. Any consistency on that?
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Raine, whether the storm moves over the river or not, it would weaken substantially by the time it gets 100 miles inland. The river makes no difference. These storms need much, much larger bodies of warm water to sustain themselves.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Bill, it's the that has been making Ophelia a major hurricane in the last few runs, though it weakens the system from its peak intensity before bringing it onshore. The SHIPS model has consistently been capping the intensity at cat 1. I believe the official forecast brings the system to 75 knots before landfall, with the usual error bar on either side of that estimate.
The 12Z brings the system into the NC outer banks from the south in about 120 hours. While the has had a tendency to be further north and east than the other models with Ophelia, people in North Carolina should obviously keep an eye on this system as well. Tropcial systems have a way of finding themselves there, it seems.
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OcalaKT
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
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Quote:
Anyone know what's up with the website??? It's still listing 5 am info.
NHC Website now updated with 11:00 a.m. info.
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