MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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4:45PM Update
Ophelia makes Hurricane Status. We now have a Hurricane sitting off the east central Florida Coastline, 70-80 miles east of Cape Canaveral. Tropical Storm Warnings are still up from Sebastian Inlet to Flagler, and Watches north of that. The warning was extended southward only because the storm's windfield has expanded, not because it is thought to move toward that direction.
There are no hurricane warnings or watches currently.
More to come later.
Original Update
Not much to report new. Ophelia is still stationary off the east Central Florida Coastline, about 70 miles east of New Smyrna Beach and a little closer toward Cape Canaveral (60 miles).
Ophelia is still expected, but not certain to, very very slowly shove north and a bit east. The new National Hurricane Center forecast track takes it slightly further east away from the US much later on, so that is some good news. However it still has a loop forecast, so that may be short lived.
Ophelia may be starting to strengthen again, and Recon aircraft will be out there this afternoon to check on it more.
Due to it being a little too close for comfort Volusia county schools have closed for the day.
The area is still under a Tropical Storm Warning, and a Hurricane Watch may be issued for parts of the coast later today.
Take a look at the track models below for a good idea where it may go, in this case, we just don't know.
It has held its intensity today, and we'll be looking for pressure drops to see if it will intensify further. It was disrupted some this morning, which has kept it in check so far.
Ophelia is still off our coastline. Most of the rainshower activity has been to the south, east, and north of the center of the storm. Still most likely it will move north and east, slowly, very slowly, and then eventually loop back around toward the west.
Some bands will make their way onshore today. With me personally having family property right on the coast along New Smyrna Beach, you can be sure I'm watching this one very closely. I'll be in New Smyrna Beach tonight.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps lookhere.
Those in the area will want to keep watch on this one for any westward movement.
More to come soon.
Report conditions from Ophelia in your area In this thread
Katrina Discussions are in the Disaster Forum
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Ophelia
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The new position does reflect a slight (.2) drift south, and overall it is slightly SW of where it was positioned after it reorganized two days ago.
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doug
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
In the last 12 hours:
The storm has moved -.3N & +.3W
995mb to 989mb
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Only possible problem is that most of the models have this looping back to the west as the ridge builds over and doesn't allow her to escape. UKMET and support this idea, and the longer she sits, the more time is running out for her to escape. HPC builds the ridge on the east coast through day 7, which is a bit disturbing. She is intensifying again, and for her to get out to sea she needs to get beyond 32N/75W by Friday night. Don't see this happening. Again, this is taking the idea of the evolving upper level pattern, and where the Globals put her in 48 hours. I don't believe they will verify with their north and east positions, so she'll have not far west to go before threatening the coastline. Just my opinion though, not a forecast per se.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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not to be argumentative, but from 28.9N to 28.6 N in 12 hours is a drift south of .3...it has also ,as noted drifted from 79.3W to 79.6 W, also .3...this translates to a SW drift in the last 12 hours.
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doug
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CocoCrk
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 6
Loc: Coconut Creek, FL
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It's a good thing (relatively speaking since it has to be somewhere) that Ophelia is where she is. If she was further North off the coast of South Carolina or further South off the coast of Palm Beach/Broward County, where the coast juts out much further East than it does further up the coast, we'd be looking at major flooding and even worse beach erosion.
She's been sitting and spinning in generally the same spot now for hours and hours and the most concentrated rain bands are pummelling the same real estate (albeit ocean) over and over. So for now, I guess we can say we are very lucky!
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 33.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 11.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.63 in
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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um i think thats what beach said, only easier, she said -.3N which is really +.3 S
same end result tho
i said she, im not sure if that is right, he/she sorry beach whichever
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
Edited by NewWatcher (Thu Sep 08 2005 11:21 AM)
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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I'm a he, the picture certainly doesn't help. lol
and you are correct, that is what I said.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
not to be argumentative, but from 28.9N to 28.6 N in 12 hours is a drift south of .3...it has also ,as noted drifted from 79.3W to 79.6 W, also .3...this translates to a SW drift in the last 12 hours.
It is more of a relocate of the center.When you have a TS the center reforms alot but its really not a drift just them fixing where the center is.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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OK, I know about the ridging to the north and what not. However, it's very strange seeing this thing right off to my east. Someone explain to me why this thing can not come west. Starting to get a little spooked here.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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It liooks to me that the ridge to the north also hangs down on the west side some, this is keeping this thing from moving west, i think
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Overall its a power comparison between the 2 anticyclones. There has been a walking speed wobble to the ssw over the last 12 hours but it means nothing. There was a upper low that was over the mid-atlantic yesterday that moved into Penns.... it felt the trough now entering the SE U.S. and has moved off the coast. Ophelia is now SSW of it and has been meandering that way cause it lost its N push from it and also the ridge over Nate is sliding ENE. So Currently there is a weak ridge over west-central florida into the gulf. Ophelia is on its eastern side with midlevel flow out of the NNE around the weak ridge. Now as the trough digs off the east coast tonight and into Friday, Ophelia will lose the ridge as it disipates and feel the trough. This should push her ENE Friday. Into the weekend expect most of the energy with this trough to move out to the NE leaving Ophelia behind near 75-76W and 29-30N, expect her Sunday to turn back to the ssw then w into Monday. She could be a Cat 3 by then but I dont expect anymore strengthning due to NE shear and wake waters that she caused over the last few days. Movement towards the Florida coastline with possible landfalls could take place Tuesday or Weds. Too far ahead for any projection, but from Jupiter-Charleston SC should keep tracking this...................................................
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I can tell you here in South Kissimmee, I am getting a lot more wind off her than I was yesterday. Very breezy, very squally, if I did not know better, I would swear this thing is a lot closer to me today than it was yesterday.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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My Bad
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doug
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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nah,,,shes same distance (abouts) from ya, her wind field is expanding though. I expect her to become a hurricane as of 5pm today still as was forecasted 2 days ago.
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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The banding is a little better formed than yesterday. Here in Palm Bay, we're getting more rain - yesterday, the bands seemed to dissipate before hitting us, or they'd drift further west.
I like the rain though, so I really can't complain. If she gets any closer though, I'll have to consider boarding up - just as a precaution.
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Missers
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 4
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The MLB area discussion is interesting. The weather here is definetly worse today than yesterday.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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There`s definately been a little south south west crawl to system over the last 12 hour accordind to the radar out of Melbourne. If it keeps that up for the next 24 hours we`ll have it sitting damn close to shore south county. I wonder what the surfs like right now down at Sebastion Inlet at the monster hole......Weatherchef
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
I wonder what the surfs like right now down at Sebastion Inlet at the monster hole......Weatherchef
Don't know about MH, but 2nd light and points southward have been going off all day.
Latest numbers I saw were 3.0/3.5, and Ophelia doesn't look all that good on sat/i.r., despite a decent blow up of convection to the south. Biggest difference here in coastal Ormond Beach are the stronger sustained winds. We had some decent gusts yesterday, but the sustained winds today are a bit higher.
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Check the Surf
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