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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Crazy question [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #54243 - Thu Sep 08 2005 12:33 PM

Looking at the water vapor loop it appears...to my untrained eyes...that the NE area of convection is breaking away...for lack of a better term.

Is it possible that this is what the models may have been picking up on moving NE? Is it possible for that to break away & Ophelia begin her move W os SW or whatever the heck she's going to do? It is offically confirmed she's moved S some right?


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Crazy question [Re: twizted sizter]
      #54244 - Thu Sep 08 2005 12:40 PM

I dont think there is one single thing confirmed about this storm, cept that it is off the east coast...
but to answer yes, i think it is drifting south, east, west, and north
a little here and there which equals nothing.
I dont think it can move west right now cuz of the ridge...

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Crazy question [Re: twizted sizter]
      #54245 - Thu Sep 08 2005 12:40 PM

I was wondering that myself. Could be that some of the models picked up that piece of energy....maybe not. Doesn't seem to have an effect on the overall system right now.....interesting.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 837
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Crazy question [Re: Steve H1]
      #54246 - Thu Sep 08 2005 12:55 PM

looking at the radar she is showing better structure on the west and south and maybe, just maybe the beginning of the ENE movement

--------------------
doug


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Crazy question [Re: twizted sizter]
      #54247 - Thu Sep 08 2005 12:55 PM

Looking at the radar out of Melbourne, The storm is exactly where it was 24 hours ago.

Good to see that the official track takes this one out to sea to the NE in the near future.


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 93
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
Re: Crazy question [Re: Steve H1]
      #54248 - Thu Sep 08 2005 01:07 PM

Believe the 00Z CMC model run today showed Ophelia splitting. Not on 012Z run though. A most perplexing storm for sure.

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StormSurfer
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Re: Crazy question [Re: CoalCracker]
      #54251 - Thu Sep 08 2005 01:40 PM

does it look like if she is trying to reorganize a little better from the latest loops? Looks like it to me. Also, looks like some of the cloud mass around the center is diggin in with a deep curve?

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Crazy question [Re: StormSurfer]
      #54252 - Thu Sep 08 2005 01:47 PM

Quote:

does it look like if she is trying to reorganize a little better from the latest loops? Looks like it to me. Also, looks like some of the cloud mass around the center is diggin in with a deep curve?





She looks like she is getting better organized on both radar and sat images. Check this out


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...lette=spect.pal

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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heartflower
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: Florida
Ophelia in Seminole County [Re: MikeC]
      #54253 - Thu Sep 08 2005 01:58 PM

Can anyone tell me what exactly Seminole County residents should be expecting tomorrow out of Ophelia??? Right now I just see dark clouds covering the sunshine and blue skies that we normally see. Not much to speak of in the way of rain. I think we got some rain early this a.m. but haven't seen much but a little drizzle this after noon. I want to decide weather or not to send my kids to school tomorrow, basically. I do not have cable or satelite or anything, it's too expensive so I rely on the internet to get my weather primarily.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Ophelia in Seminole County [Re: heartflower]
      #54254 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:04 PM

They can go to school,, there is no worries.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Ophelia in Seminole County [Re: scottsvb]
      #54261 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:22 PM

Eyes may be deceiving me, but it remains stationary, perhaps reforming slightly to the east of where it was before. There is no reason for Seminole to worry about tomorrow. It's mainly along the coast, and even there it isn't too bad. Erosion along Volusia county beaches is about the biggest worry at the moment.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, FSU [Re: MikeC]
      #54262 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:24 PM

..have it making a loop reaching cat.4-ish status and then weakening a little before heading toward the GA-FL-SC coast.

Ryan, I'm not sure where you got that information, but from first-hand experience I can tell you that isn't the case. There hasn't been a model to make this storm a category 3 storm, yet alone category 4. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Thu Sep 08 2005 06:42 PM)


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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Ophelia in Seminole County [Re: MikeC]
      #54263 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:29 PM

MikeC, I saw that to, and think it is also reforming the center a tad south and east.

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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 93
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
Re: 1:20 PM West Central Florida Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #54264 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:29 PM

One of the best discussions I've seen on Ophelia thus far is the 1:20 PM West Central Florida (Ruskn) piece. Link is on the main page under Local Weather Outlooks/Discussions. Worth a read.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 1:20 PM West Central Florida Discussion [Re: CoalCracker]
      #54265 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:31 PM

The 12Z GFS loops Ophelia twice before bringing it into the Carolinas in about 11 days. I have a feeling this is going to be around for awhile.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: 1:20 PM West Central Florida Discussion [Re: CoalCracker]
      #54266 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:34 PM

Ruskin link:

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html

Why is "sensible weather" so named?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Ophelia in Seminole County [Re: MikeC]
      #54267 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:40 PM

The erosion along South Volusia County beaches is/will be extensive, but, Flagler County is having some problems also. Apparently two sections of State Road A1A have been washed out by the waves. Florida DOT is dumping coquina rocks into the pits, but it does not appear to be that successful in stopping the erosion.

Michael


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TAZMAN
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 48
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: 1:20 PM West Central Florida Discussion [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54268 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:41 PM

Have tom say that for the first time in while now... the models seem to be in agreement for the most part... not like they were yesterdayu.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Ophelia [Re: Ed in Va]
      #54269 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:47 PM

Ophelia continues to improve on satellite, as it is continually generating deep convection and there is evidence of an anticyclone building over the storm. There is a some lightning activity in the would-be western eyewall, but there isn't much going on in the eastern half of the storm at the moment. Wind speeds seem to be slowly increasing on radar. It is trying to intensify, but it will only intensify slowly until it can wrap some convection all the way around the center of the system.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: 1:20 PM West Central Florida Discussion [Re: TAZMAN]
      #54270 - Thu Sep 08 2005 02:54 PM

Agreed to some extent on the convergence of th models, but still some very substantial outliers:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL162005

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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