F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | >> (show all)
gvl, fl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 12
Loc: Gainesville, FL
Re: Ophelia [Re: Steve H1]
      #54313 - Thu Sep 08 2005 05:42 PM

I see what looks like an appendage (almost like a boot) sticking out of the NW side of the storm, and extending up into Jax, at the end of the latest vis and ir loops. It looks kind of unusual to me. Does this feature indicate the storm is trying to grow in size?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anton Ross
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 42
Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
UKMET and Ophelia [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #54314 - Thu Sep 08 2005 05:44 PM

Being in Charleston (SC), I am not liking the way the UKMET looks.

Granted, we're still a ways out from Ophelia and her possible (probable?) recurve back towards CONUS, but how well has UKMET been working with times out this far?

I know that with Katrina it didn't do well at all until the storm had really gathered all its steam, but still.

Any opinions would be greatly appreciated...

Gracias.
/Anton

--------------------
"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary.
-Albert Einstein


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Ophelia [Re: Kattbyrde]
      #54316 - Thu Sep 08 2005 05:52 PM

I was just watching the weather and the met from WPB said it was located 60-65 miles east of Daytona and is expected to not move very much over the next few days. He also said if it did go west that probably wouldn't happen before Tues. or Wed. It's gonna be a long week-end

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ophelia [Re: gvl, fl]
      #54317 - Thu Sep 08 2005 05:54 PM

I think Ophelia may have peaked for the time being... the latest recon shows no change in pressure and no longer indicates an eyewall. The storm does not look as organized on radar, either, and the radar velocities have come down somewhat. The cloud tops in the NW quadrant are warming... there may be some sort of dry intrusion developing up there.

As noted a couple of posts above by gvl, fl, I also noticed that something appears to be tugging the cloud tops in the far NW quadrant of the storm to the north. That may be an indication of the system that is going to try to pull Ophelia to the N and then NE.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Thu Sep 08 2005 05:54 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Ophelia [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54318 - Thu Sep 08 2005 06:27 PM

Very strange interaction she is having with the dry air to the northwest. Literally like the humid bands are intermixing but reamining intact with the dry air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Ophelia [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #54319 - Thu Sep 08 2005 06:53 PM

The kicker to help push Ophelia a little bit is coming, but I'm not sure I can see much of a northward motion just yet. There's an upper-level trough over SE Canada north of the Great Lakes with a shortwave trough along it extending down into Iowa (where an MCS has fired up today), but most of the forcing approaching the storm is extending from the NW to the SE. It's almost a similar upper-level scenario to Katrina, just with a much smaller magnitude. I wouldn't be surprised to see the northward motion of the storm relatively capped over the next day or so with the general motion being toward the east instead of northeast.

In any case, it's still a battle between the features over the US (now wanting to send it SE) and the weak upper-high near the Bahamas (now wanting to send it NE) making a slow movement to the east -- or just slightly north thereof -- likely over the next few days, starting tonight. No idea if such a motion would cause the ultimate landfall location to change significantly; that depends upon how strong a ridge builds back in north of the storm and if a trough slides by again to turn it more towards the north and west. The idea of a loop out at sea is a sound one, but there are still some differences on the location thereof; right now, I'd go a little further east than the NHC but not as far east as some of the model guidance.

Intensity forecast is largely unchanged...probably low-end category 2 in 4 days. If it heads back toward Florida (except for perhaps the Jacksonville area) in the long run, intensity will likely be capped due to upwelling and cooler shelf waters as it nears the coast.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: Ophelia [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #54320 - Thu Sep 08 2005 06:53 PM

Looks like on Melbourne radar that she is starting to move ene. Look at the last frame on the loop then look at the time of the still frame. http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GLT
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: Central FL
Re: Ophelia [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #54323 - Thu Sep 08 2005 07:00 PM

Just some observations form Osteen, FL - ~25 miles from the coast.

Rain since Tuesday, mostly light but it has started to add up. Light rain this morning - then little rest up the day (I cooked ribs OUTSIDE).

About 4 PM winds picked up - as the storm was making hurricane status - estimate 30-35 MPH gusts.

I trust the models - BUT if this thing turned inland there would be a LOT of surprised people. I know that is unlikely but I like to plan as if anything could happen. I'm a little unhappy the way the media is telling everyone not to worry and it is ONLY at Cat 1. Only?

GLT


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Ophelia [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #54324 - Thu Sep 08 2005 07:07 PM

Quote:

Looks like on Melbourne radar that she is starting to move ene. Look at the last frame on the loop then look at the time of the still frame. http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml




In the absense of more information than a few radar images that are inconclusive, I have to disagree with you. It's looked like that before only to turn back to the SW a few hours later (net movement: ziltch). Actually what you are seeing is not the center moving but expanding one way or the other I think. The axis of rotation does not move at all in the radar loop, to my untrained eyes.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 08 2005 07:15 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Ophelia [Re: Clark]
      #54325 - Thu Sep 08 2005 07:07 PM

Clark:

Looking at the latest Recon data, seems pessure is up 1MB and winds down some not buying those readings yet, but could this be caused by some upwelling she passing over same water again.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Ophelia [Re: Old Sailor]
      #54327 - Thu Sep 08 2005 07:21 PM

Quote:

Clark:
Looking at the latest Recon data, seems pessure is up 1MB and winds down some not buying those readings yet, but could this be caused by some upwelling she passing over same water again.




I'm not Clark, but I'll throw this out: looking at the radar, I see concentric eyewalls on the west side of Ophelia. Can't see the east side of the circulation clearly (or there is no east eyewall)... but could it be an EWRC? In a Cat 1 hurricane, that seems very odd.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Ophelia [Re: Old Sailor]
      #54328 - Thu Sep 08 2005 07:30 PM

It could be, but it's more likely temporary fluctuations inside the core of the storm. It's a rather dry environment that the storm is embedded in and it appears a temporary lull in the wind shear around the storm may be coming to an end. While the Gulf Stream has some of the warmest, deepest waters in the basin, they can't support a storm forever. It'll be tough to make a call on the storm now as to whether upwelling is playing a role, but much longer in the same area -- or a trip away and then back -- and it'd be a much easier distinction to make. For now though, the storm doesn't look quite as impressive as it did earlier today.

It looks to be more of a breakdown of the eyewall as opposed to concentric eyewalls. It's not uncommon for hurricanes of all intensities to undergo eyewall replacement cycles; you just see it more often with intense storms as they are able to maintain their eyewalls for longer periods of time than weaker storms are (which often go through phases of trying to define a better eyewall as opposed to true replacement cycles) able to do so.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
crpeavley
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 26
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: MikeC]
      #54330 - Thu Sep 08 2005 07:54 PM

The forcasters out at Tampa Bay have an interesting perspective on how the models are forcasting Ophelia's track, specifically their reliance on the upper level (above 500 mb) steering flow rather than the mid and low level flow, and even saying Ophelia could sit still for another day and totally miss the westerlies.

Could we get some other mets to comment on this?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: crpeavley]
      #54331 - Thu Sep 08 2005 07:59 PM

Quote:

and low level flow, and even saying Ophelia could sit still for another day and totally miss the westerlies.




please say that's not gonna happen, Clark.... please!!!

Anything is possible at this point, in my opinion, though.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Local WPB Meteorologist [Re: Hugh]
      #54333 - Thu Sep 08 2005 08:30 PM

645pm EDT Thursday September 8, 2005

Based on GFS, upper air analysis and satellite derived winds.

Latest advisories on Hurricane Ophelia are being issued by the NHC in Miami.

I had the chance to look at the satellite derived winds aloft water vapor loop from the SSEC web site..the 100-250mb and 500mb winds. They are of big interest to me in order to verify that a pure Northeast motion would start on Ophelia. The winds aloft at 500mb also the 400-600mb winds too! at about 35 north is westerly. Hurricane Ophelia seems to be hooked into the 100-250mb level while a dry southern dry boundary on water vapor loop streaches across the 30 north latitude basing on the water vapor wind derived satellite products. The issue here is whether Ophelia does go Northeast or will it go more easterly. In this situation it is critical to see what the wind flow is aloft to the north of Ophelia namely about the 35 north latitude. Using the known case studies made from the old Eastern Airlines (disbanded old aviation weather forecast team) weather textbook that I use for these critical and almost difficult situations, "Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics" By J. J. George in the tropical movement of cyclones and using the 500mb as guidance with this situation would basically take Ophelia by extrapolation more East-northeast if there was a motion than just Northeast. If this is the case then we need to be more concerned then a pure northeast motion. Any weather numerical model that takes this East-Northeast to East such as Jeanne of last year when it was out in the Atlantic would be a problem since the loop forecast that is expected would loop it back to Florida instead of farther up the U.S. coast.

There is no defined controlling feature such in this case and with a frontal dry boundary north of it aligned west to east. Since now the fall like westerlies at mid to upper levels has already taken place. A Westerly flow a little farther north in Latitude is not the same as a fully developed trough that would provide a more southwest flow and being or being captured by a more pronounced deeper trough. The trough in my expert opinion that officially was talked about is not going to be enough to take it all the way out far enough to the northeast. The situation as I see it is that Ophelia will be moving more with a more due east of northeast track then just Northeast as the GFS has it. Any models again that take it a more flatter east motion or ENE is my pick and I would throw out any models that take it Northeast as I see it now.. The westerly flow is over a large predominant area in the northern latitudes especially looking at about 5-7 degrees to the north of Ophelia's latitude.

I do not know whether the data I looked at here at 1800z or 2pm has initialzed well enough for the GFS to move in the direction I feel it SHOULD do.. I think the official forecast for a more East Norteast slow motion is a fairly good one and the loop will more likely take place farther south in latitude then the GFS has it or any model for that matter.

So there you have it...also if Ophelia stays stationary for a longer period the likelihood that it would be pushed farther east northeast is less so or at least be a shorter distance to the Florida east coast. This needs to be watched very carefully..it is ironic but it seems that this is somewhat a similar situation as Jeanne of last year..this time much closer to the east coast of florida... all interests need to keep watch all along the East coast of Florida for the next 2 to 3 days and see how it moves...if it moves the way I think it will it is not that good for us..if it should move more northeast it is a little better as long as it goes far enough northeast when it loops it will remain somewhat hooked into the westerlies at mid to upper levels that when it loops it will loop and even if a southwest motion will come back and loop it will be farther up the the U.S. coast like Georgia or the Carolinas! We shall see.. I hope with my technical expertise that everyone understands the seriousness of this situation..Ophelia is not something to lay back but at least we are better prepared in the event it loops back to us.

GFS extrapolation of the winds aloft.....Outlook 72 to 120 hrs... Another very strong reinforcing high will build and impinge down on Ophelia keeping from going too far north in latitude early next week 72hrs or so...also the mean layer of the atmosphere will favor a push to the south to southwest beyond the 72hr period..and that certainly could be a problem for all of Eastern Florida...we will wait and see and pray...that there is a feature that will take it well away from us into the far atlantic...but now the fact is....it hasn't moved much at all all day through 5pm.!

Bottom Line............
The closer it stays to our coast the next 24-48hrs as the pattern transitions to the north the greater chance that Florida will be effected or be threatened or for that matter be battered by this cyclone over a longggggg time into next week!...I hope my discussion helps any official forecasters or any others on standby for emergency response....that are watching this storm carefully...!!!

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: crpeavley]
      #54334 - Thu Sep 08 2005 08:31 PM

Quote:

The forcasters out at Tampa Bay have an interesting perspective on how the models are forcasting Ophelia's track, specifically their reliance on the upper level (above 500 mb) steering flow rather than the mid and low level flow, and even saying Ophelia could sit still for another day and totally miss the westerlies.

Could we get some other mets to comment on this?




Did you hear that somewhere or did you read it? What exactly did they say? Do they think that it could sit out that long? I read that it should start to move n-eastward in 12 to 24 hours. What are the chances of that? It has been basicly in the same spot since yesterday.

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WisconsinWill
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: Madison, WI
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: crpeavley]
      #54335 - Thu Sep 08 2005 08:35 PM

Quote:

The forcasters out at Tampa Bay have an interesting perspective on how the models are forcasting Ophelia's track, specifically their reliance on the upper level (above 500 mb) steering flow rather than the mid and low level flow, and even saying Ophelia could sit still for another day and totally miss the westerlies.

Could we get some other mets to comment on this?




Generally speaking, the more intense the tropical cyclone, the greater the depth of its core cyclonic circulation (from the surface to above 200mb in some of the most intense cases), so as intensity increases we look at an average of the winds over a greater vertical extent of the atmosphere when attempting to define the "steering currents." For example, check out the layer mean wind page here at UW:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

You'll notice that the steering indicated for a weak cyclone (MSLP greater than 1000mb) is much different than for an intense one (MSLP less than 940mb). This process of reducing the atmosphere to a 2-dimensional flow-field is one of the reasons that barotropic models are still used for track guidance despite their great simplicity -- all in all, they work quite well, especially when the flow regime is well-defined and well-behaved as it usually is in the deep tropics. In the subtropics, things can get a little wacky as in the present case when a TC finds itself trapped in a very weak steering environment. Initial position and convective assymetries can have a part to play in determining the ultimate track in situations like this (and who can really predict where an individual convective cell is going to develop?). It's one of the reasons the global models do so much flip-flopping. When there is greater run-to-run continuity, that's usually a sign that the flow is evolving in a way that makes the track forecast less chaotic (and hopefully!) more reliable.

hope this helps,
Will


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: WisconsinWill]
      #54336 - Thu Sep 08 2005 08:40 PM

I was reading at another hurricane site that the storm may be weakening to Tropical Storm strength at this time. If so, our lady may very well be pulling a Hamlet maneuver. Which would not upset anyone I know personally

Just wanted to add that we just got a pretty stiff gust of wind. I guess the outer bands of what ever she is right now is making it to Polk County.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

Edited by GuppieGrouper (Thu Sep 08 2005 08:42 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WisconsinWill
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: Madison, WI
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #54337 - Thu Sep 08 2005 08:48 PM

Quote:

I was reading at another hurricane site that the storm may be weakening to Tropical Storm strength at this time. If so, our lady may very well be pulling a Hamlet maneuver. Which would not upset anyone I know personally
]




I hear you. I have family in SC (where I grew up and developed this hurricane addiction I now have) and they're not at all pleased to have to wait this thing out. After the events of the past several weeks, I think everyone hopes the westerlies sink south a little early this year.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #54338 - Thu Sep 08 2005 08:53 PM

Yes, looks like dry air is getting the best of Ophelia now, and the convection as well as the overall appearance is waning. This happened yesterday, and she'll probably ramp up again tomorrow. Getting tired of waiting her out. Oh, off to watch football

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 223 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 61003

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center