Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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12z brings this storm up the coast to New England now, hugging the coast up to Maryland, then toward BOX. Also, it is developing lows in the longer range off Africa.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Steve,
Do you have a link...clicking on goes to the site which has only 06 data.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
12z brings this storm up the coast to New England now, hugging the coast up to Maryland, then toward BOX. Also, it is developing lows in the longer range off Africa.
im looking at and it doesn't shwo that at all it's showing Ohelia going into the GA/SC region
EDIT: they just said on the track is very uncertain and that the majority of the easst coast should watch Ophelia's movements over the next few days.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Fri Sep 09 2005 05:03 PM)
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scottsvb
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Loc: fl
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I dont like to go against the models but I cant see how this will get too far N in the short run. Right now the best idea is along with the models and thats for it to get up to near 31N and 76W on Sat afternoon. Then be pushed down to 29.5-30N by sunday evening then move w towards florida and georgia monday with landfall Tuesday-Weds between Fl-Ga boarder and HH S Carolina. Thats my current forecast but I still have 24-36hours before I will make it official too look at more data for my 3 day forecast.
Anyways I said above I dont think this will go much more N for somereason. It might get up around 31N but my guessing (before the loop) is 25% chance 31N or more,,,50% around 30-31N and even 25% chance it stays just near or under 30N. Reason I say thats also a possibilty is that the troughs southern extent is more of a E-W flow and then quickly becomes NW-SE and should impact her tomorrow. Also there is a upper low that might want to try to hold (although very slight ) down to her SE near Hispaniola... this might want her to not move as fast during the next 36 hours as the 00Z and 12Z runs show. By time the upper low moves to just N of Cuba Saturday into Sunday the trough will be off the east coast as ridging will be building in stoping any ENE movement that was slight. Then she will wobble S then SW then W from 30N on Sunday, 28.5-29 on Monday then ( just a odd speculation) threatning Tuesday into Weds Daytona,Fl -Savanah. Climatology does come in where it would say No that storms hardly come in from that way, kinda like W-Central Florida.Note was considerd Sw Florida. Anyways there is a thinking to consider. Movement will be slower then the models show over the next 36 hours mainly due to the fact of the upperlow having a slight affect on her over the next 24-36 hours and the trough axis has more of a e-w then nw-se Saturday evening.
Edited by scottsvb (Fri Sep 09 2005 05:13 PM)
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scottsvb
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Ophelia should become a hurricane again by 5pm if not 2pm. Winds support possibly 80mph but they might just have it as 75mph.
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_m.shtml
Plop that into your browser and go down the center column.
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gogogabby007
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Hi, I'm new here and really enjoy reading everyone's postings. My question is: with all this new data, is it completely out of the question that Ophelia will enter of the GOM? Thanks, Gabby.
Edited by gogogabby007 (Fri Sep 09 2005 05:27 PM)
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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I don't see how it would go that far north either Scott (NOGAPS now shows further north) and I was looking at the ULL in the Caribbean as well. As the ULL moves west it may allow a WSW opening if the ridge is strong and to the NW and if SHE stays around 30W. I'm real curious as to where she'll be in 36 hours.
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scottsvb
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Loc: fl
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well right now, my current thinking is along the lines of moving her to 31N before the turn but wouldnt suprise me if shes like just over 30-30.5N Just matters how fast the trough is moving and how much influence is with the ULL.
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ralphfl
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Quote:
I dont like to go against the models but I cant see how this will get too far N in the short run. Right now the best idea is along with the models and thats for it to get up to near 31N and 76W on Sat afternoon. Then be pushed down to 29.5-30N by sunday evening then move w towards florida and georgia monday with landfall Tuesday-Weds between Fl-Ga boarder and HH S Carolina. Thats my current forecast but I still have 24-36hours before I will make it official too look at more data for my 3 day forecast.
Anyways I said above I dont think this will go much more N for somereason. It might get up around 31N but my guessing (before the loop) is 25% chance 31N or more,,,50% around 30-31N and even 25% chance it stays just near or under 30N. Reason I say thats also a possibilty is that the troughs southern extent is more of a E-W flow and then quickly becomes NW-SE and should impact her tomorrow. Also there is a upper low that might want to try to hold (although very slight ) down to her SE near Hispaniola... this might want her to not move as fast during the next 36 hours as the 00Z and 12Z runs show. By time the upper low moves to just N of Cuba Saturday into Sunday the trough will be off the east coast as ridging will be building in stoping any ENE movement that was slight. Then she will wobble S then SW then W from 30N on Sunday, 28.5-29 on Monday then ( just a odd speculation) threatning Tuesday into Weds Daytona,Fl -Savanah. Climatology does come in where it would say No that storms hardly come in from that way, kinda like W-Central Florida.Note was considerd Sw Florida. Anyways there is a thinking to consider. Movement will be slower then the models show over the next 36 hours mainly due to the fact of the upperlow having a slight affect on her over the next 24-36 hours and the trough axis has more of a e-w then nw-se Saturday evening.
For a few days now and a few pages back i posted that my thinking was the GA FL border,Now what i use to base it on is the same thing i used when i said that Kat would hit the LA miss area when it left the Fl coast which is a blend of the GDFL runs and blend them with old runs.
When went off the florida coast the gdfl had the right track a day before then changed as it went along.
The other day the gdfl had it going to the GA Fl border and my thinking is it has it now moving faster then what it is and will be doing.
So just like with ill go with what worked last storm and for 2 days now been saying this will hit the GA FL border as a cat 1-2 storm and error range up to the GA SC border and as low as Daytona beach.
Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 09 2005 06:00 PM)
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Adam
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Loc: Hilliard, Fl (Northeast FL)
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Quote:
Quote:
I dont like to go against the models but I cant see how this will get too far N in the short run. Right now the best idea is along with the models and thats for it to get up to near 31N and 76W on Sat afternoon. Then be pushed down to 29.5-30N by sunday evening then move w towards florida and georgia monday with landfall Tuesday-Weds between Fl-Ga boarder and HH S Carolina. Thats my current forecast but I still have 24-36hours before I will make it official too look at more data for my 3 day forecast.
Anyways I said above I dont think this will go much more N for somereason. It might get up around 31N but my guessing (before the loop) is 25% chance 31N or more,,,50% around 30-31N and even 25% chance it stays just near or under 30N. Reason I say thats also a possibilty is that the troughs southern extent is more of a E-W flow and then quickly becomes NW-SE and should impact her tomorrow. Also there is a upper low that might want to try to hold (although very slight ) down to her SE near Hispaniola... this might want her to not move as fast during the next 36 hours as the 00Z and 12Z runs show. By time the upper low moves to just N of Cuba Saturday into Sunday the trough will be off the east coast as ridging will be building in stoping any ENE movement that was slight. Then she will wobble S then SW then W from 30N on Sunday, 28.5-29 on Monday then ( just a odd speculation) threatning Tuesday into Weds Daytona,Fl -Savanah. Climatology does come in where it would say No that storms hardly come in from that way, kinda like W-Central Florida.Note was considerd Sw Florida. Anyways there is a thinking to consider. Movement will be slower then the models show over the next 36 hours mainly due to the fact of the upperlow having a slight affect on her over the next 24-36 hours and the trough axis has more of a e-w then nw-se Saturday evening.
For a few days now and a few pages back i posted that my thinking was the GA FL border,Now what i use to base it on is the same thing i used when i said that Kat would hit the LA miss area when it left the Fl coast which is a blend of the GDFL runs and blend them with old runs.
When went off the florida coast the gdfl had the right track a day before then changed as it went along.
The other day the gdfl had it going to the GA Fl border and my thinking is it has it now moving faster then what it is and will be doing.
So just like with ill go with what worked last storm and for 2 days now been saying this will hit the GA FL border as a cat 1-2 storm and error range up to the GA SC border and as low as Daytona beach.
Im fron Hilliard, a little town on the FL/GA border and 25 miles inland, I have been watching the runs for the past 3 runs and have been thinking for a while that the track made the loop too aggressive and taking to far north. So it will be interesting to see where she is in 24-26 hrs
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CoalCracker
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Gabby,
If you check the 1100 strike probality list or alternatively check the strike probability map on Weather Underground, you'll see the 72 hour probability locations range from Atlantic City, NJ down the east coast, south to Cuba, up the Florida Gulf coast and across the Florida Panhandle to Mobile!! That shows how much of a handle the feels the models have on Ophy's ultimate direction and destination. The old gal is still an enigma and probably will be for the next 24 to 36 hours. Be interesting to see how long it takes the models to come into agreement.
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emackl
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Scott and Ralph, it that the center of circulation on the long range Melb radar? If so, does it look like she's going more ene then ne now? Or does it just look that way?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
EDIT! Nevermind, now she looks like NE....ROFL! I swear if I refresh too often I start seeing things.
Edited by emackl (Fri Sep 09 2005 06:43 PM)
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Lee-Delray
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I noticed that the models have changed and have the storm going up the coast anywhere from GA to NJ. How many model runs does the need to see before they adust their track, 3 day & 5 day bubbles.
Not concerned here in Delray, just curious 
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native
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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How come still (@ 2:38pm) does not have the 2pm Public Advisory information up yet??? What's going on?
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Big Kahuna
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Loc: DeLand, Florida
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My thinking is this: the projected path has changed so much since the wave developed into a storm then hurricane then storm again, I think we'll know were shes going when she gets there. You know that the path will change again at 5pm.
URNT12 KNHC 091740
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1709Z
B. 29 DEG 41 MIN N
78 DEG 36 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1281 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 022 DEG 60 KT
G. 349 DEG 32 NM
H. 983 MB
I. 18 C/ 1516 M
J. 24 C/ 1659 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C10
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0916A OPHELIA OB 37
MAX FL WIND 72 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 1721Z
GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION
82 mph winds should ophelia be a "cane" again
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emackl
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Loc: Indianapolis
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The 11:00 disc said the next advisory will be at 5:00. I thinks it's because she's no threat for the time being.
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Big Kahuna
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Loc: DeLand, Florida
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At the 11am on the bottom said they will advise at 5pm. Its going away from land.
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scottsvb
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Loc: fl
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2 and 8pm are for watches and warnings,,there are none as of now.
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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I see at the bottom of the 11am it says next one at 5pm....what happened to the interim 2pm?
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