joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Evening to everybody.
As the GOM trys to return to a more normal state of affairs, Lili seems to be pulling herself together. She is trying to get her center stacked, and now that the center has found it's way under the convection, pressure is down to 999MB, droping about 1 an hour. Outflow is begining to look MUCH better; for a little while I thought the convection was begining to fade, now I'm thinking she actually at the begining of the spin cycle. Moving NNW, center jumping around a little bit, lower western Cuba seems a probable target, at least short term. Still very unlikely she'll cross Cuba anytime soon, I don't think South Fla stands a chance of seeing her. The Keys, maybe, but I haven't seen anything to make me look there,either. Models, in the long term, are already begining to do the Izzy dance, but are slowly shifting toward the east down the road, at least for the moment.
Joe in JAX
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Now moving NNW at 7 MPh, motion expected to continue for next 24 hours.
A 5mb pressure drop...1004 at 5 PM compared to 999 now.
Winds are 45 knots, slow intensification expected for next 24 hours.
It will be interesting to see the changes (if any) to the forecast at 11:00 PM.
Kevin
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Well here we go again! I imagine this site will start to pick up in about 2 days or so. FYI.....The local TV stations in Miami have all but written Lilli and Kyle off. Calling for a couple of *passing* showers next monday as Lilli passes to the south.
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Marktropic
Unregistered
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The more northern postion is a concern but not to much. The model pulls Lili n-nw towards Cuba over the next 12 hours and then turns w-nw so lets see how long she moves nnw. If Lili moves north of Cuba then I'll be a bit more concerned but right now I still see a north central Gulf coast problem long term not south Florida.
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Kyle
Unregistered
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Geez not lilly to i got back from the beach an it was pretty bad. There was debris everywhere an the roads an homes were still flooded. I dont think we can take another on especially the beaches.
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Grouper
Unregistered
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Get yourself ready my friend , double trouble headin your way
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zima
Unregistered
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 Do yo really think Lilli is going to go into the GOM. I don't know much about wht these things will do but I am fasinated with these storms nd I really enjoy reading everyones comments. I was just wondering if you think it really will get into the GOM? if so when? I live about 25 miles south of New Orleans in a town name Lafitte and we are surrounded by water. Although right now from IZZY we have lots of water everywhere, and if LILLI comes here or to our west we will be in big trouble cause the water won't have time to get back to it's normal state. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
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bobby
Unregistered
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this is nuts 1 time a week the last 4 storms now one more mobile must have good hurr soup
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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kyle's getting a good beating now.. no more eye, center is vertically disjoined. not moving much.. dependent on how much is left it will either get dragged out in an amplification.. or more likely just rebuild once the shear subsides, under the ridging to the north.
lili has gained some latitude.. maybe kyle is weakening the deep easterly flow and the ridging has turned her up a bit. could turn south of or north of cuba.. if it turns over cuba it wont do much intensification. fairly reliable modeling puts it into the upper yucatan peninsula or the channel.. isnt responding to steering the way models have been predicting, though. probably eventually will get into the gulf, but in what state is hard to say.
none of the other basin features merit much comment.. two late season waves somewhat feisty but not going to do much development next 48hr.
HF 0220z28september
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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TWC just said they expect Lili to stay on the n/nw course for several days. I wonder if they know something we dont. If thats the case, I see it going through the keys and into the gulf. Could this be? 
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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>TWC just said they expect Lili to stay on the n/nw course for several days. I wonder if they know something we dont. If thats the case, I see it going through the keys and into the gulf. Could this be? <
I wouldn't be sure who knows what. Let me quote the 11 pm disscussion:
I DON'T QUITE UNDERSTANDTHE MECHANISM FOR THIS NORTHWARD MOTION...BUT SINCE THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO ALREADY BE DOING SO...
Sometimes I can't believe some of this stuff. If anybody does understand, please call the and tell them. I think the forecast models just perform badly in this area of the world, as far as hurricanes go, and their forecasting relies way to much on them. Are we no better off than we were 50 years ago?
Lili, for whatever reason that the "doesn't understand", is moving NNW. It is still forecast to turn more to NW-WNW during the day(or evening) tomorrow. It appears that it will ride the coast of Cuba(which coast I'm not sure now) toward an entry into the GOM. This should keep Lili from not getting above Cat1 for awhile, if she even reachs that point. Western Cuba is far from flat; if she finds herself stuck over land to long she may well be tore apart again. If none of the above happens, it will be for reasons I don't understand.
Kyle is going through a tough time right now. Best bet is keep an eye on him, but don't break a sweat yet. Still talking days before anybody can be sure what will happen with him.
Goodnight and sleep tight.
Joe in JAX
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frank j p
Unregistered
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Latest run heads Lili towards the mouth of the river .... Wonder how many other different areas the will forecast in the coming days.... someone ought to keep count...
I also think system has a real good chance of being a GOM storm... just took down my plywood... this does not bode well for the MS coast because if I would have left it up, Lili would not have even thought about coming to this area...
Frank P
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Maybe Bastardi was right a couple of days ago and Lili will go meander in a small box near South Florida for a few days until the steering currents get reestablished.
--------------------
Jim
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Late night tropics:
Lili: She's moving NNW still, isn't sure why, wait to see what the morning brings
Kyle: He's getting sheared quite badly, but he should make a comeback in a couple of days. Latest forecast shows some westward acceleration by 72 hours. Could be a Florida threat...and a big one at that with high building in...but my confidence is very low at this point.
Here's to a good night's sleep.
Kevin
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Okane
Unregistered
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Well, i'm in Cancun, our brother city of Merida hasn't recovered yet from Isidore, the area has a lot of damages, but Cancun was missed by one hundred milles, I think we can not take one more hurricane, so, if you don't mind we rather let you take Lili this time my dear Floridian's.
But it seems that Lili is taking the same curse that Isidore took, hummm, as you can see there are many mexican's like me who have insomnia.
Everybody in Cancun are sending water and food to the victims of Isidore, and desperely looking for the info about Lili, but the info is always very confusing.
Greetings
Okane
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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well okane, one positive. the longer it keeps the northerly course, the less likely it will ever bother you. should it get north of cuba you're probably out of harm's way. news i've seen on isidore says that only two people perished in the storm.. your government must be very good about warning its citizens. and by the way, estoy deseando que mi español estaré tan bueno como tu ingles. probably botched the grammar.. heh. i'm learning.
some of the 00Z model runs are out.. avn takes lili across the keys and south of the panhandle by 120hr. still takes it to the yucatan. and ukmet arent done.. is still near cuba and strong.. over towards louisiana by the middle of next week.
recon is just about there. nnw course holds for much longer and this thing is going into gitmo tomorrow night.
lets not forget kyle. globals are trending to turning the storm east and out.. but not sure why it would do that under such a ridge. of course lili isnt making sense.. why should kyle?
HF 0655z28september
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Last week during all the Izzy hype I kept putting all my chips on Lili, I suppse this week its time for me to show my hand and see if I get to serve or be served crow. I haven't been on here much the past few days, was trying to help out with the storm cleanup in Indy on my days off.
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Harpar
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
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Lili appears to be drifting more to the west this morning. Anyone else notice this?
Edited by Harpar (Sat Sep 28 2002 08:47 AM)
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I just put out my forecast for Kyle on the "Storm Forum". Later today or tonight I will put my Lili forecast on there as well.
Kevin 
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Frank J P
Unregistered
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Reading the 's am discussion on Lili this am does not bode well for the GOM.... I figure with the strong high building over FL how far north Lili goes now will play a major factor in where she ultimately ends up... my initial feelings are the farther north she can get the closer to the FL Panhandle, conversly if she stay more to the south as she tracks across the Caribbean then I would think it would go more to the west around Central La or E TX Regardless, a very strong chance it could end up somewhere in the northern Gulf Coast... IMO
Also need to see if there are any fronts pushing down next week as this could really be the ace in the hole as far as ultimate forecast... this is the time of the season for fronts to grab these systems and jerk them back to the NE or even ENE no matter where she would be in the GOM.... time will tell....
Frank P
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