F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st and lasts until Nov 30th. NHC Outlooks resume on May 15th..
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 238 (Idalia) , Major: 238 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 238 (Idalia) Major: 238 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

Weather Bloggers >> Resident Meteorologist Discussions
Previous topic Previous   View all topics Index   Next topic Next   Threaded Mode Threaded  

Pages: 1
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Where Next?
      #54515 - Sat Sep 10 2005 03:17 PM

Ophelia, located at 31.6N 76.5W at 10/14Z, appears to have started a slow drift to the Southeast or South - perhaps the beginning of a partial anticyclonic loop. Latest Recon reports central pressure at 977MB with winds stronger at the surface (82kts - dropsonde) than aloft (75kts) - yet another storm that is going against conventional wisdom (I'm sure that Katrina will rewrite the meteorological standard for storm surge).

(Added: At 15Z, Ophelia has again been upgraded to Hurricane status with sustained winds of 70 knots and a central pressure of 976mb. NHC now indicates a drift to the northeast and "A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA").

Ophelia is dealing with moderate west northwest wind shear. If the high pressure building to the north of the hurricane shoves the cyclone southward, the storm will encounter less shear and favor additional intensification. Dry air is still in place to the west of the hurricane and could still hold additional intensification in check. It is certainly possible that the system could acquire some extratropical characteristics over the next couple of days and intensify anyway.

Final destination is still unknown, although the UKMet model is not doing too badly with this system. An eventual westward turn seems likely later this weekend - perhaps much later, so if you live along the southeast coast - don't relax.

On an unrelated note, it could be quite some time before we have another named system. The ITCZ is rather quiet from eastern South America all the way to eastern Africa - and the latest MJO analysis supports this. Looks like the rest of the climatological peak of the season could be very quiet - but the October secondary peak will probably make up the difference - unfortunately.
ED

Wilmington, N.C. Radar

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1


Previous topic Previous   View all topics Index   Next topic Next   Threaded Mode Threaded  

Extra information
0 registered and 4 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 2896

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center