MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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7:45PM Sun. Update
Tropical Depression 18 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm , now with sustained winds of 40mph. While it is still broad and not very well organized, further strengthening is likely over the days to come as it heads in the general direction of the Florida Straits. T.S. Philippe continues to strengthen east of the Lesser Antilles and should become a hurricane early on Monday but will likely remain out to sea in the short-term. Interests in Florida, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the western Gulf should follow , while interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and Bermuda should follow Philippe as they move in those general directions early next week.
11:30PM Sat. Update
Tropical Depression Eighteen has formed east of the Bahamas, the system is currently moving west and forecasted to be near the Florida Keys on Tuesday as a hurricane. The general trend is for it to continue to move toward the west. Any vier north or south would either make it miss the keys directly (but still be impacted) or possibily affect South Florida. Folks in the cone, along the southeast coast of Florida and especially the keys, will want to pay very close attention to Tropical Depression 18 over the next day or so.
The eastern Bahamas are under a Tropical Storm Warning, while the northwest Bahamas are under a Hurricane Watch.
Conditions are very favorable for strengthening over the next few days and the storm will likely be a hurricane as it approaches Florida. If it is named, it will be called .
Likely watches will need to be raised for parts of Florida sometime tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Philippe has formed from Tropical Depression #17 but will most likely remain out at sea. Another wave in the far east Atlantic may have a chance to form in the next several days if it persists.
Original Update
Ophelia is east of the Northeastern United states and a weakening tropical storm tranforming into an system.
Tropical Depression Seventeen has formed east of the windward islands, this system most likely will be a fish spinner and head out to sea, but it may get close to the islands first, so those in that area will have to watch it until a definite northerly motion starts (it may not happen). Warnings or watches for the islands could be put up at the 11AM advisory.
The wave north of Puerto Rico is looking a little better organized today and may tranform into a depression in a few days as it moves into the Bahamas.
This is probably the one to watch the closest now as it could affect Florida or enter the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical system.
Chances for tropical development of the wave east of the Bahamas in two days.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---------*------------]
Outside of these, there isn't much in the Tropics right now.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Event-Related Links
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Emergency Management/County info
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Broward County Emergency Management
Palm Beach County emergency managment
Miami-Dade County Emergency Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Rita
Animated model plots of
Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop
Philippe
Animated model plots of Philippe
Edited by Clark (Mon Sep 19 2005 12:02 AM)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Holy  ..I mean 96L. Did anyone see the 06Z run on 96L? The run brings the storm to a 137 kt hurricane in 5 days off the SW cost of FL with a pressure down around KAT levels near 920 mb. Okay, before I get the usual cascade of posts that it's only one model run, the depression hasn't even formed yet, and you know how much the models change 5 days out - do I expect this, no, but I just thought I'd mention it - the tropics are really heating up now.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
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RJB
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CocoCrk
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Loc: Coconut Creek, FL
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I think it's way too early to label this storm as a fish spinner. I believe in the short term it will get pulled in a generally N or NW direction due to the weakness, but the high is forecast to build back in pretty strongly during the forecast period which should turn the storm more NW if not WNW or due W somewhere North of Puerto Rico. All bets are off IMO at that point.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Tend to agree with you CC and so does the TPC. Here is their 72 hour forecast with projected movement.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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I just checked the tracks and intensity forcasts over at http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
I don't like what I'm seeing...
TD 17 looks like it will stay in the atlantic, but 96L is more worrisome. GFD* models are showing it moving into the gulf with a slight WNW track just after it passes FL. The globals are keeping it more westerly.
But the tracks are less worrisome than the intensity models. For both 17 and 96, intensity models are showing possible major Hurricanes developing, with 96 possibly hitting 120kt (Cat 4) winds.
It's really still to early for models to have a good handle on either of these beasts, but what the models do show isn't pretty.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I think it's way too early to label this storm as a fish spinner. I believe in the short term it will get pulled in a generally N or NW direction due to the weakness, but the high is forecast to build back in pretty strongly during the forecast period which should turn the storm more NW if not WNW or due W somewhere North of Puerto Rico. All bets are off IMO at that point.
Someone who was tracking the now TD17 was telling me this two days ago. It should move north of the islands and then make a hard turn toward Florida, he suggested, and then continue moving to the west. It's definately one to watch. The system north of Puerto Rico could skip the northward motion and just head toward the Bahamas, if it develops - which looks possible in a few days.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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If TD 17 and 96L become named storms that puts it two closer to using up all the names. I think that is a possibility.
I've noticed there really hasn't been many quiet days in the tropics since the season started. Everytime one thinks there is going to
be a break something else happens. These two, given their current locations, should be especially interesting to follow.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Look at what does to 17L - it makes it a monster. And it's a Global Model...global's don't do that usually.
I know tends to overdevelop tropical systems...but even it doesn't do it to this extent usually:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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CMC has been showing that since Thurs..in fact most of the models have been fairly consistent with development of both systems & their general track...cmc really explodes them though.
I know is considered to be not as reliable as most...but this has been such a crazy season...storms surviving shear/unfavorable conditions, etc., etc...and then BAM we have a big system out there leaving us in awe of how unpredicatable & powerful Mother Nature really is.
What is it the model is or isn't picking up on that the others are or aren't?
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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GFDL makes 96L a cat 5 hurricane by 96 hours, with the pressure bottoming out at 918.5 mb at 102 hours between the Keys and Cuba. That is the deepest system I can remember the ever generating, in my relatively limited experience looking at the model. If nothing else, that seems to suggest that conditions will be favorable for strengthening if a tropical cyclone can establish itself.
Timing will be important with this system... if it moves relatively quickly into the Gulf under the building ridge, it will probably tend to move W or WSW and affect Mexico rather than the U.S. Gulf Coast. If it moves as slowly as depicted in the , then a northerly turn would be more likely at some point.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
GFDL makes 96L a cat 5 hurricane by 96 hours, with the pressure bottoming out at 918.5 mb at 102 hours between the Keys and Cuba. That is the deepest system I can remember the ever generating, in my relatively limited experience looking at the model. If nothing else, that seems to suggest that conditions will be favorable for strengthening if a tropical cyclone can establish itself.
Timing will be important with this system... if it moves relatively quickly into the Gulf under the building ridge, it will probably tend to move W or WSW and affect Mexico rather than the U.S. Gulf Coast. If it moves as slowly as depicted in the , then a northerly turn would be more likely at some point.
Thunder... you're not trying to get on my good side, are you? Another Cat 5 hurricane headed for the north gulf coast? I've usually held the in high regard on its long-term projections - even if its short-term forecasts sometimes aren't as accurate, the longer-term seem to be to me. That's... frightening...
Of course, the system has yet to be classified even as a TD, and most models put it into Texas in the extreme long term. But we do not need another super storm - anywhere.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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yeah, did that a couple of days ago as well, to 17. remember that in the disco beven says that the globals don't initialize the storm well. the forecast is pretty low confidence, but probably not very far from the truth. the late period movement is iffy because even though most of the globals aren't as nuts about that trough staying put near bermuda, it's still going to be a factor. it's getting close to next weekend that they show the ridge rebridging, so it could already be through by then, or just hanging around waiting to get shunted westward. a wave actually overtook what is 17 last night, and it has a pretty good turning on it up near 20/56. this turning is chugging west behind 96L and entering the same favorable environment. they're all too close to expect it to develop, but the nearby systems should at least sense its weakness and get tugged by it... none of the globals are resolving any of that.
gfdl is the great vacillator... it will kill a system one run and make a cat 4 hurricane out of it the next. i wouldn't worry about its 96L prog just yet.. the movement wnw past the keys is suspect since there should be a huge ridge over the nw gulf (unless it senses that 500mb trough supposed to dig near the SE upstream from the ridge late in the week). right now 96L has a weak center near 22/68, which is drifting west. most of the convection is to the east, and it could actually lose out in the long-run to the oncoming wave if it were to take its sweet time. i don't think it will, though. should develop by tomorrow and threaten the bahamas monday-tuesday and possibly cuba and florida around wednesday. think it will continue westward in the gulf from there.
amplitude of the wave near 35w has increased a good bit.. seems to be lighting its signature up. it's upstream of a couple of developing systems so the westerly shear over it should remain stronger.. but it's south of the ridge and in a reasonable environment.. so it could slowly organize over the next few days as well.
thing i keep wondering is where are we going to put all these damned storms. nao is positive which favors zonal ridging, so unless they can find weakness and escape, they'll want to come west.
HF 1530z17september
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Even if a super-intense hurricane develops as in the model, the heat content in most of the northern Gulf would not support anything near that intensity, with the possible exception of the far NW Gulf, so chances are very good the storm would weaken if it approaches the U.S. coast. The greatest risk in the short term is if 96L ends up a little further north than expected and affects the Keys or south Florida.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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With any luck, the building ridge will protect the U.S. Gulf Coast from whatever comes of 96L, while TD 17 gets steered out to sea. That might actually be the most likely scenario at this point, but lots of things could happen differently. While TD 17 is likely to head slowly NW for awhile, there is nothing immediately obvious to turn it definitively out to sea in the forseeable future.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Not meaning to change the subject but it appears they're having trouble with Goes 12. Last update was over 1 1/2 hours ago. Usually refreshes every 30 min. Hope it's just software.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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CocoCrk
Registered User
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Loc: Coconut Creek, FL
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Quote:
Not meaning to change the subject but it appears they're having trouble with Goes 12. Last update was over 1 1/2 hours ago. Usually refreshes every 30 min. Hope it's just software.
GOES is down...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/bulletins.html
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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got it:
Subject: GI: Satellite Data Outage Goes-12
Topic: Satellite Data Outage
Message Issued: 09-17-05 / 1550z
Satellites Impacted: GOES-12
Products Impacted: images, products, etc...
Date/Time of Initial Impact: 1550z
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Details:
SOCC informed the Helpdesk that GOES-12 data flow is interrupted by a
satellite anomaly. It is unknown how long this may last.
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Contact Information:
SSD Help Desk
Satellite Services Division
NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPD
301-763-8222
SSDHelpdesk@noaa.gov
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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i think TD#17 may go out to see from the way its looking as or now, and 96L will have to be closely watched.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Yeah, I would watch it real closely...
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Parrish florida
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Does anyone have any idea as to when were going to see some rain her in west central florida? it is really really dry right now. I'd say were close to a drought.
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