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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: the rita contingency [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #54901 - Sun Sep 18 2005 02:57 AM

We may have TS Ruth now

Recon

Not with 1009mb pressure and 21kt max flight-level winds, not yet... -Clark

Edited by Clark (Sun Sep 18 2005 03:02 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: the rita contingency [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #54902 - Sun Sep 18 2005 06:59 AM

Quote:

We may have TS Ruth now

Recon

Not with 1009mb pressure and 21kt max flight-level winds, not yet... -Clark




That would be truly incredible, since there is no Ruth on the NHC list of storm names in the Atlantic Basin - in any year!

The convection is looking better, though. I'd say we will have T. S. Rita by sunset.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: the rita contingency [Re: Hugh]
      #54903 - Sun Sep 18 2005 07:28 AM

so is it possible that Philippe could affect the coast, or will it definatley be a fish spinner, Thanks

Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Future of Phillipe [Re: Ryan]
      #54904 - Sun Sep 18 2005 07:59 AM

From Steve Gregory's Blog at Weather Underground:

The model runs from this evening continue to show Phillipe moving on a NNW track -- but with the slowing forward motion -- we are again faced with increased uncertainty regarding the track. In either case, a steady intensification process is likely as the the water temps are very warm, and the shear environment should remain in the 10Kts or less category, with decreasing shears as time goes on. Although the models all show the system moving NNW for the next 4-5 days - missing the Caribbean, the longer range GFS shows the ridge to the north building across the Atlantic by mid week -- and this could turn the storm move westward late in the week.

Interesting take on the long-term movement - I don't like the thought of the Ridge building in across the Atlantic after 4-5 days.

--------------------
RJB


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Future of TD18 [Re: Ron Basso]
      #54905 - Sun Sep 18 2005 08:23 AM

The convection has really fired up and expanded around the center of TD 18 this morning. Looks like we may have tropical storm Rita later today. Looks like a more W-NW or NW movement the next 36 hrs followed by a due west. It'll be interesting to see how much latitude the storm gains before being forced west by the strong ridge over the northern GOM. Will it be a hurricane in 48 hrs? This time of year and given the SSTs - probably. Not sure if its a done deal on the westward movement across the GOM since there are some hints that the TX high will retrograde west and a weakness will develop due to a trough coming into the SE states around Wednesday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
RJB


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Future of TD18 [Re: Ron Basso]
      #54906 - Sun Sep 18 2005 08:56 AM

I think the system is better organized than the imagery shows right now. It is still developing.. as they say.

There is a tendency in the immediate for it to travel more to the west than thought earlier but I think that pressure will relent and it will begin moving wnw again..

Though the high is strong there is what to pull at it enough that I think this will be a Keys/S Fla system.. with luck thread the needle and go t hrough the Straits.. wouldn't start wishing it on Cuba just yet.

Wishes aren't real. Fantasy isn't fact. Models predict.. watch the plots and see what verifies and stay with that.

Good posts this morning, thanks HankFrank and everyone else
Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: the rita contingency [Re: scottsvb]
      #54907 - Sun Sep 18 2005 08:56 AM

Quote:

Since the recon found the system more to the sw of sat loc....I expect the impact will be from WPB south and mainly the keys. Probably TS force winds with hurricane conditions near the center. Wont be also as bullish with the system, probably 65-80mph until florida.This is a update to my post last night before recon.

scottsvb




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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
97L [Re: scottsvb]
      #54909 - Sun Sep 18 2005 09:27 AM

Looks like it has been classifired. Running a T Number of 1.0 on the Dvorak scale.



And TD 18 is running a Dvorak number of 2.0 if I remember right.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: 97L [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #54910 - Sun Sep 18 2005 09:37 AM

T1.0 doesn't make a Tropical Wave a Tropical Depression for sure...so they might not classify it yet. I've seen systems make a 2.0 before being classified, and others classified at 1.0. There is more involved than simply Dvorak intensity, and I don't know what all of NHC's criteria are.

However, I'd expect 97L to be classified today...it's not looking so great on IR right now, but these things flux a lot. All the conditions are favorable...so an upgrade would definately not surprise me.

I'd also expect Rita to come out of TD18.

GFDL intensities are less insane today, now making moderate strength storms instead of super strength. Unfortunately the same can't be said for the Globals. CMC is still trying to make a monster in the Atlantic. UKMET is also making a pair of dangerous looking systems. GFS is keeping them more sane. NOGAPS has 18 tracking over Cuba and thus not developing much until it reemerges into the gulf. Both GFS and NOGAPS show 17-Philippe as the more major system.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 97L [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54911 - Sun Sep 18 2005 09:41 AM

Latest GFDL backs WAY off on the intensity of T.D. 18, not making it a hurricane until it is well into the Gulf. That would be good news for south Florida, though the latest solution appears a little unrealistic... the GFDL seems to lack nuance, either keeping a system as a depression or weak storm, or blowing it up into a major hurricane. The reality will likely be somewhere in between.

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: 97L [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54912 - Sun Sep 18 2005 09:46 AM

Here is the model runs on 97L so far:



--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Future of TD18 [Re: LoisCane]
      #54915 - Sun Sep 18 2005 09:50 AM

TD 18 looking much better on IR & Visible Sat this morning. Would not be surprised to see it being upgraded to Rita later on today, probably this evening or tonight. This is looking more like a Keys to extreme south Fla event, because of the building high which will keep it on a generally w to wnw direction. This potentially could be a strong TS or Cat 1 as it passes throught the straits, Keys or extreme S Fla, in any scenario , looks to be a messy mid-week for S. Fla.
TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: 97L [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54916 - Sun Sep 18 2005 09:50 AM

Quote:

Latest GFDL backs WAY off on the intensity of T.D. 18, not making it a hurricane until it is well into the Gulf. That would be good news for south Florida, though the latest solution appears a little unrealistic... the GFDL seems to lack nuance, either keeping a system as a depression or weak storm, or blowing it up into a major hurricane. The reality will likely be somewhere in between.




GFDL, throw us a bone! Geez. Looks like the system will stay south of the peninsula...I am not used to including the Keys in the "South Florida" category...I've always known them as "the keys."


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Future of TD18 [Re: Ron Basso]
      #54917 - Sun Sep 18 2005 09:57 AM

Is it a possibility the storm (18) would move west and then take a more northward turn? Will that
depend on what the high over Texas does? Also, any thoughts on intensity?
The storm looks like it is heading into Mexico at the moment but I hope the Gulf Coast Coast states are paying attention. NHC says it
could be classified as a TS today, Rita.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Future of TD18 [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #54918 - Sun Sep 18 2005 10:03 AM

Dont think the next recon will get there until 2pm but I could be wrong. Anyways they will make this now a 35mph system at least by 11am. System is slowly getting better organized. If you live in TX I would just watch this for now, after Monday into Tuesday we will have a better idea if it will go to TX or whereever.

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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
Re: Future of TD18 [Re: scottsvb]
      #54919 - Sun Sep 18 2005 10:10 AM

SCOTT, IF THIS STORM PASSES BY US IN CENTRAL WEST FLORIDA LIKE ALL THE OTHERS HAVE THIS WILL MEAN MORE DRY NO HUMIDITY O CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT?

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Future of TD18 [Re: weatherwatcher2]
      #54920 - Sun Sep 18 2005 10:28 AM

LOL your pretty much correct,,,this should be the same as what Katrina brought to W central florida if it moves as the NHC forecasts,,but there might be a band or 2 hit our southern zones, but this is subject to change of course. 1 day, I dont know when, but a hurricane will hit w central florida and get all of us by surprise that it didnt go west of here into the panhandle. That weak ridge that slides up and down the state seems to send energy thru S florida and around or gets pushed to S florida and the bahamas and a system moves NE into the panhandle from that direction. Some day the ingredients will come into place for a nightmare. Probably not in my lifetime though at age (35).

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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
Re: Future of TD18 [Re: scottsvb]
      #54921 - Sun Sep 18 2005 10:32 AM

It just kinda stinks that these systems interfere with our usual afternoon patterns. Its bone dry here and so hazy. Lokks like were in for the same scenario again.. Maybe we'll get some rain in november!

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JYarsh
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Virginia Beach, VA
Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #54922 - Sun Sep 18 2005 10:42 AM

Does anyone else see that the track of Phillipe is very similar to Hurricane Isabel right now or, or do think it is almost possitively going to be a fish spinner?

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas [Re: JYarsh]
      #54923 - Sun Sep 18 2005 10:46 AM

Nope...

Isabel: http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/createstorm.asp?stormnum=1303&year=2003
Philippe: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/085158.shtml?5day

Philippe's a lot further south and moving northward a lot further east. Plus it developed a lot further west than Isabel. Isabel was already a Cat 5 by the time she was due north of Philippe's present position.

--RC


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