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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 997
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: downward spiral [Re: HanKFranK]
      #55542 - Tue Sep 20 2005 09:03 PM

Dvorak estimate up to 5.5, that's solid Cat 3 on the estimate. Dopplar estimated windspeed is almost there, though FL interpolated is a bit low still. We might verywell see Cat 3 at the 11pm.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: WInds and Pressure [Re: danielw]
      #55543 - Tue Sep 20 2005 09:04 PM

Rita has only actually had a solid eyewall for the last few hours. I don't know if that would have any impact on the timing of an ERC or not, though.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Rita Rita Rita [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55544 - Tue Sep 20 2005 09:15 PM

i think she can reach cat. 4 strength by tomorrow night and hold it till saturday when she will make landfall a little farther south from Galveston. This could be extremely bad, Texas hasnt got rain in 2 weeks or so and this water to fast wont be absorbed by the dry dry ground, it will sit on top of the ground.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: Ryan]
      #55545 - Tue Sep 20 2005 09:51 PM

Quote:

i think she can reach cat. 4 strength by tomorrow night and hold it till saturday when she will make landfall a little farther south from Galveston. This could be extremely bad, Texas hasnt got rain in 2 weeks or so and this water to fast wont be absorbed by the dry dry ground, it will sit on top of the ground.




Whereever this monster goes, it will be bad. Didn't we say that about 3 weeks ago? It's true again. Looking at IR, I'd be surprised if Rita were not upgraded to Cat 3 at 11pm. The overall cloud pattern is a bit ragged on the edges, but the core is dang impressive.

ETA: I'm sure it's just a wobble (hopefully), but it looks like the eye moved NW over the last hour or so... and is definately north of the forecast track.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Tue Sep 20 2005 09:57 PM)


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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: Hugh]
      #55546 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:01 PM

It appears Rita has made a slight NW jog. Am I seeing this correctly ?

IR Channel 4


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: downward spiral [Re: HanKFranK]
      #55547 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:02 PM

Just got home and saw a drop of 18mb between 7am and 7pm today, and NHC 5pm intensity forecast up to 115kt (the threshold of Cat 4) starting tomorrow evng and for three days.

I can see in the last couple hours the core circulation has really organized.

This is a huge difference from this morning, but I still think there is a little bit of an intensity frenzy going on here on the board all day. Curious to hear from the board mets what is different since this morning to drive the intensity forecast changes, other than Rita's intensification all day (that is, is there anything else factoring in besides stepping up the intensity forecast because the starting point, Rita's current intensity, is higher).

I think I'll just pull up a chair and watch now.

So I see wind shear will not be a factor (thx for the link lurkerhunter!), and upper level atmosphere is aiding outflow, which looks very impressive in the GOM side of the storm, but still not clear on why water temps won't cap development at Cat 3.

Well I am certainly glad she is going to be down around 24deg lat while crossing between 85 and 89 deg log, instead of between 25 and 27.

I wonder why the NHC discussion always mentions the SHIPS model intensities when they are such an outlier (remember the 175kt forecast for Katrina...now 125kt for Rita), and don't reflect the NHC forecast. Is it just a bit of CYA?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: downward spiral [Re: HanKFranK]
      #55548 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:04 PM

I remember you said Texas might be hit by a storm just a week or so ago. When I saw that I thought we might be in trouble.
Our local met says we may see wind and rain if the storm hits around Matagorda Bay. Also possibly power outages.
Carla did affect the whole Texas coast. Port Arthur
had four feet of water in some of its downtown area. Allison did quite a bit of damage in this area but especially Houston and she
was just a tropical storm. Last major cane to hit Houston was Alicia and she went through the downtown. Here, we haven't had a
hurricane since '86 and only a cat 1 although several tropical storms since then. Everyone is preparing early just in case.
Many of our evacuees from New Orleans were flown out, I think to Tennessee. Houston was flying some out also. Galveston
is evacuating. Better to be overprepared than not prepared.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Local Mets. take [Re: Hugh]
      #55549 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:07 PM

Latest guidance on models and the mean upper streamlined analysis.

Looking at GFS and NAM model we see that the guidance there seems a blend to the mean 100/200/500mb flow that i have analyzed with Rita. Hurricane Rita will be controlled now by a deeper layered ridge of high pressure. The Track will go West to Northwest next 3 to 5 days and the Central Texas area is highest probability of a direct hit..I used also the 100mb winds since Rita will be a major intense hurricane and she will be controlled more above the mid level steering if the winds.. As you can see this is very tight to the official forecast. If you want to use this analysis as a screen tool to tighten the verification of the best models./..this is the only way to go..

A great tribute and we should give thanks to the forecasters of the National Weather Service Office at Key West..!! Even with a near major hurricane moving to the Southwest of them they still were able to get a radiosonde balloon launch!! Way to go Key West.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: Black Pearl]
      #55550 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:08 PM

Quote:

It appears Rita has made a slight NW jog. Am I seeing this correctly ?
IR Channel 4




You're definately not alone if you're seeing it. It'll be very interesting to see:
1) If the "jog" becomes a trend or just a jog/wobble. Chad Myers (CNN Weather guy) just confirmed that Rita has made a jog to the northwest.
2) If the NW movement results in any change to the models or the official forecast. In order for that to be the case 1) would have to materialize.
3) If the intensity forecasts hold. Right now looking at IR, and radar, I'd say they may be too conservative.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Local Mets. take [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #55551 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:10 PM

Quote:

A great tribute and we should give thanks to the forecasters of the National Weather Service Office at Key West..!! Even with a near major hurricane moving to the Southwest of them they still were able to get a radiosonde balloon launch!! Way to go Key West.




On a lighter note. I wonder just how far the radiosonde made it?? I'll have to check that one!~danielw
Hmmm. Made it all the way up. Mandatory levels.

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 20 2005 10:17 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: downward spiral [Re: Margie]
      #55552 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:13 PM

SHIPS is actually one of the best-performing intensity models out there. Out intensity forecast errors are generally fairly substantial despite rapidly-improving track forecasts, unfortunately.

A note about the oceanic heat content...
Compare the following two images:
Pre-Katrina: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005238go.jpg
Current: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005262go.jpg

The threshold value of 60 kJ/cm^2 is denoted with the black outline. While conditions around Katrina were highly favorable in terms of energy, they aren't as much with Rita. However, they are still above the threshold values for significant storms and except for in pockets extend across the entire Gulf. The surface temperatures have recovered but the sub-surface ones haven't. Ultimately, we have tools such as the one above, but we aren't certain what is going to happen. I'd put it about equally likely that Rita maintains as a minimal cat. 3 all the way to landfall or that Rita deepens to a minimal category 5 storm over the central Gulf, with the most likely scenario lying somewhere between there.

Ultimately, the NHC is generally conservative with their intensity forecasts. Storms of high-end category 4 or low-end category 5 intensity are rare in all basins; it is somewhat like predicting record temperatures over land -- tough to do because, after all, they are records. You'll see them mention the possibility while keeping the intensity forecast more conservative. They may well be doing that here, though I think the landfall intensity of 115kt sounds about right (this is in the range I noted last night, toward the high end).

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: Hugh]
      #55553 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:14 PM

think she may be at cat 3 tonight, but i wouldn't expect her to make cat 4 until she hits the Loop Current full on.... yes its a little cooler, but i think that once she passes and goes through an ERC tomorrow, i think Cat 5 is not out of the question on thurs.... Katrina went through an ERC during the night as she moved over the loop current and that next morning she blew up..... i am tending to go with a cat 3 - 4 at landfall.... just sw of Houston. I think storm surge will be another BIG problem with this system, along the texas coast.

Here's some research on the Loop Current:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/research/

Also for Reference, Here's what Katrina did:
http://katrina.esl.lsu.edu/katrina/images/g12.050824.25.sst2.comp.gif
(GOES SST/SSH Two Day Composite - Aug 24, 25)



Current WV of Rita
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/4pnl/latest_wv_loop.gif

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: Hugh]
      #55554 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:19 PM

that possible jog scares that heck out of everyone in ms and la. where is a sat frame to show the high and if it is departing sooner than scheduled? go away Rita

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #55555 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:22 PM

Quote:

think she may be at cat 3 tonight, but i wouldn't expect her to make cat 4 until she hits the Loop Current full on.... yes its a little cooler, but i think that once she passes and goes through an ERC tomorrow, i think Cat 5 is not out of the question on thurs.... Katrina went through an ERC during the night as she moved over the loop current and that next morning she blew up..... i am tending to go with a cat 3 - 4 at landfall.... just sw of Houston. I think storm surge will be another BIG problem with this system, along the texas coast.





I think she's already a Cat 3, and that it will be confirmed in the next 20 minutes when the 11pm advisory package is issued. Cat 4 may take 12-36 hours after that. The storm is still south of where Katrina traversed - I think - and if the northwest jog doesn't continue the storm may stay over hot water for longer than some think. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I just don't see anything to keep Rita for continuing through the roof, ERCs not withstanding. My projection for landfall is near Houston/Galveston, or possibly northeast of there, unless the NW jog continues in which case I think even as far east as Grand Isle could be possible.

NOTE: This really wouldn't put it out of the "cone", either - just have it take the northern edge rather than the center.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Tue Sep 20 2005 10:24 PM)


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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: Hugh]
      #55556 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:25 PM

these latest models do show more northerly landfall than earlier today

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: Hugh]
      #55557 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:27 PM

It does not look as much like a jog NW to me. It looks like the eye is tightening up and that a blow up of convection wrapping in is making it look like a NW jog

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 997
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Rita Rita Rita [Re: jr928]
      #55558 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:28 PM

With everyone talking about "where landfall will be" in terms of "center-line" only...even if it takes the centerline (which is statistically not very good), look at the forcast windfield on this behemouth!

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt02.gif

(note - Skeetobite's key is valid for it: http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/windfield.asp )

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 20 2005 10:30 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: downward spiral [Re: Clark]
      #55559 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:30 PM

Quote:

SHIPS is actually one of the best-performing intensity models out there. Out intensity forecast errors are generally fairly substantial despite rapidly-improving track forecasts, unfortunately.




Clark, I'm looking at the 00Z SHIPS and I hope it's wrong on the intensity at 84hrs.
115mph and 41nm inland.
Further out to 120hrs, still indicating 69 kts at 651nm inland.
The lat/ longs with that 120 hr look to be near Seminole,Oklahoma???


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: downward spiral [Re: danielw]
      #55560 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:31 PM

URNT12 KNHC 210225
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/02:04:50Z
B. 24 deg 02 min N
083 deg 04 min W
C. 700 mb 2789 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 056 deg 097 kt
G. 325 deg 026 nm
H. 965 mb
I. 11 C/ 3050 m
J. 15 C/ 3047 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1218A Rita OB 24
MAX FL WIND 103 KT NE QUAD 00:19:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C, 335 / 11NM

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 20 2005 10:32 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 997
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: downward spiral [Re: danielw]
      #55561 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:31 PM

Does SHIPS take into account interaction with land? I thought it didn't.

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