MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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6:30PM
Huricane is now moving west and away from the Keys, but the back side of the large storm is affecting the coast, spawning tornadoes and waterspouts. 75MPH sustained winds were reported at Key West with gusts over 100MPH. The core of the eyewall remained south of Key west, barely.
The latest recon report has the pressure down to 970 millibars.
The future track has not changed as of yet, as the attention beginds to focus more on the Gulf coast, especially middle-north Texas.
1:45PM
Rita is now a category 2 hurricane with 100MPH winds, a new advisory at 2PM Will reflect this.
9:15AM
Rita is now officially a category 1 Hurricane. A Special statement to this regard was released by the Hurricane Center.
The next official advisory at 11AM will reflect this.
Live version of this radar courtesy HCW
Animated Version Mirror
Original Update
Rita is still a strong Tropical Storm near the Southwestern bahamas, quickly moving generally westward with a hint of north movement. is now visible on radar and we're recording the radar images here.
It is still expected to become a hurricane, but it did not overnight like we previously though, so that is a little bit of good news, it doesn't have as much a chance to develop before approaching the Keys. Conditions are positive for strengthening, but not overly so. Which is a also another small bit of good news.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Rita has leveled off overnight and is still moving quite rapidly to the west. It is still likely to pass just to the south of Key West and enter into the Gulf, possibly nearing Key West as or near a Category 2 Hurricane. If the track continues, hurricane force winds will be confined to parts of the Keys.
Beyond the Florida Keys, it should enter into the Gulf. The forecast track shifted a bit west toward the middle texas coast, with the cone south to Northern Mexico an east toward Middle Louisiana.
As far as the Gulf is concerned there is still a lot of uncertainty, it is best to not concentrate more on that track until after it passes west of Florida.
Warnings and watches have not changed since last night.
Philippe is still heading out to sea, and the wave east of the Leeward islands has a very low chance to develop, at least for the next several days.
Report conditions in your area here.
More to come later.
Event-Related Links
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Cuban Radar
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
CFHC Long term Key West Radar Recording of
CFHC Long term Bahamas Radar Recording of
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Emergency Management/County info
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Broward County Emergency Management
Palm Beach County emergency managment
Miami-Dade County Emergency Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Video/Audio
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, is doing his live audio show as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here
Ross from Suncam.tv is streaming video and webcams from the landfall area
Marc Sudduth will likely also be in the area see his live streaming video and audio here
Reply and let us know of other links.
Rita
Animated model plots of
Google Map plot of
Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop
Philippe
Animated model plots of Philippe
97L
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Cindi
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Loc: Panama City, FL
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Please forgive my ignorance, but what is keeping from making landfall along the NE Gulf (i.e. Panama City area?) How certain is the current track? Should I make preparations already? I have most of water/food etc from earlier in the season. Should I go on and make arrangements to leave? Seems like from past experience with hurricanes, they tend to go the opposite way of where they were initally predicted to go. I am sick of hurricanes...
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Please forgive my ignorance, but what is keeping from making landfall along the NE Gulf (i.e. Panama City area?) How certain is the current track? Should I make preparations already? I have most of water/food etc from earlier in the season. Should I go on and make arrangements to leave? Seems like from past experience with hurricanes, they tend to go the opposite way of where they were initally predicted to go. I am sick of hurricanes...
It's not going anywhere near the panhandle, there is nothing that could take it that way, and it is too far south.
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Cindi
The confidence on the intial track and motion is very high. There is nothing to suggest a northward motion at this time. Breathe easily for now 
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Quote:
Please forgive my ignorance, but what is keeping from making landfall along the NE Gulf (i.e. Panama City area?) How certain is the current track? Should I make preparations already? I have most of water/food etc from earlier in the season. Should I go on and make arrangements to leave? Seems like from past experience with hurricanes, they tend to go the opposite way of where they were initally predicted to go. I am sick of hurricanes...
Basically, CIndi, a large high pressure ridge to the north of and a low pressure system to the south are keeping it on a westward to west-north-westward movement currently. But, if these systems deviate any to the north or south, or weaken in any specific area along the forecasted path, it could jog a little bit. The best thing to do would be to have supplies with you from June 30 - November 1. This is a must if you live anywhere along the coast!!
- Josh
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bigpapi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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I believe Recon has found a Hurricane. Pressure down to 985 and winds so far in the NW quadrant at 78 knots. I don't think they are done yet though.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Here's recon (HCW requested it in the old thread):
501
URNT12 KNHC 201216
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/12:03:50Z
B. 23 deg 43 min N
080 deg 20 min W
C. 850 mb 1309 m
D. 55 kt
E. 113 deg 056 nm
F. 186 deg 069 kt
G. 110 deg 044 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 14 C/ 1526 m
J. 21 C/ 1524 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. E220/50/40
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1018A OB 07
MAX FL WIND 69 KT E QUAD 11:50:20 Z
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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They said she was forecast to hit further south because of the fast movement of the storm. If she slows down a bit is there a chance
of a more central or upper Texas coast hit? Yesterday the track looked more north Texas. Could it shift back or is it pretty certain
it will go more south? How confident is the track this far out? Also, what is causing the fast movement?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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"Look at the cone"  - all of Texas is still under threat. So are parts of Louisiana. This thing is still 5 days out...
Models are still showing anywhere on the Texas coast:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/late1.png
--RC
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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he is very surprised that a storm with the low pressure that this storm does have.... is not a hurricane, waiting like everyone to hear what recon and decides.. but as he says..its 's call
and also surprised as we all are that it never became a hurricane last night
agreed...went to sleep at midnight and thought it would easily be a strong 1 by morning and never did it..
woke up at 4am to heavy rain band, very heavy and woke up at 7am to what looked like a replay of miami and georges.. over preparation (which is good...better safe than sorry) and just a lot of wind
breezy, blustery..waiting for an hour or so and probably going out
announces now it is Hurricane
So...bryan is no longer surprised on that one
guess bastardi can stop clenching his teeth too
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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It is a hurricane now. Will be reflected on the 11 am advisory.
I realize all of Texas is in the cone but I know landfall depends alot on what the high over us does. The speed that the hurricane
moves will also be important. So I was just wondering if she could slow down some or if the high could break up sooner. Any thoughts
on that?
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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wondering if she might take a bend south on her track west... or go low enough to come close to tex/mex border
i mean if nothing is there to pull her north.. why wouldn't she come in south of 25?
if she holds speed
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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well that good thing is that is moving so fast that hopefully she won't get alot of time to build/get a chance to turn north or stall/turn north north-east...
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Surely you jest. I did see some models hinting at a rounding of the florida peninsula last night, but I am sure that every one knows exactly where this storm is going at this point. We here in West Central Florida would appreciate some rain from any bands that might come our way. I am wondering about the article I read earlier in the year. I will place the link for those to read while waiting for the next report. It is very interesting in light of the actual first half of the hurricane season. The title is: The Case Against Florida
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
Edited by GuppieGrouper (Tue Sep 20 2005 09:50 AM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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One interesting tidbit. In all the time of keeping records there has never been a storm that started where did that will have made
landfall as far west as where she is projected to make landfall. In fact, I believe all of the storms that started forming where she did
ended up hitting Louisiana or east of there. So this would be a first if she hits Texas, or even north Mexico.
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bigpapi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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Pressure down again to 982. This could be the rapid deepening people alluded to.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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LOL floridians always think every hurricane is going to swing around and hit the panhandle. No, there's absolutely nothing that is going to force this to stall anywhere near florida before turning it N/N-E. It really looks like its going to burn in to texas without any noticable change of direction other than a slight N-W/W turn.
Your link was quite enjoyable and makes alot of sense for increased watchfullness for other hurricanes, just not this one. The problem with FLA caine's is the lack of warning before they ram themselves into what could be a fairly large landing cone. At least with GOM ones you can get 5-6 days of a fairly decent track.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Just a quick note - just got to work and saw the 9:15. Driving in I was envisioning a conversation...radioing the recon pilot, "hey could you just keep flying around up there until you find a 75kt or 80kt flight wind? Please!!!..."
Gotta go to training, catch up with you all later.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Looks like the NE quadrant of the storm has really dried out for the time being. Overall, though, the system looks better than it did last night... there is actually an inner core, albeit one that is not completely closed around the center.
Also, the system appears to be headed due west right now, a trend which would spare the Keys a worse fate if it holds for the next few hours.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Tue Sep 20 2005 10:36 AM)
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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LOL I agree...after there are going to be alot of false alarms/people seeing eyewalls doing things that they just aren't doing. It's going to be very hard to stay focused and be objective with every piece of data that comes out of not only but the next 10 or so storms which we encounter.
The good that came out of is at least people have a wakeup call as to what can happen if people do not take every possible step to get the heck out of the way of these storms. Boards on your windows don't stop 30 foot seas. Maybe this time people will remember longer than 5 years what can happen.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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