MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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5PM EDT Update
Rita is now a Category 5 hurricane with surface winds of 165-170mph and a sea level pressure of 906mb. This makes it one of the most intense hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin, just shy of where was 3 weeks ago. Microwave imagery suggest that an eyewall cycle might be 12-18hr away, leaving it plenty of time to unfortunately strengthen further. More soon.
3PM EDT Update
Hurricane is nearing category 5 intensity with a pressure just below 920mb and maximum sustained winds at 150mph. Recon recently reported a max wind of 173kt at 139m above the surface.
7:40 AM EDT Update
Hurricane has now hit category 4 threshold with 135 MPH winds, and a pressure of 948 mb.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
7:00 AM EDT Update
Major Hurricane is now well into the Gulf of Mexico still moving quickly along at 14MPH toward the west, the current model consensus still suggests the middle Texas coast, with the most likely location between Corpus Christi and Galveston. The cone of uncertainty ranges from Northern Mexico to Western Lousiana.
Rita is still set for intensifying right now, and it is forecast to reach Category 4 strength today. There is a possibility that will breifly obtain Category 5 status as well. Some evacutions are already underway in the Galveston area, but no warning or watches are up for the Gulf coast as of yet.
More to come later today.
2:00 AM EDT Update
NHC has updated Hurricane to Major Hurricane status.
Rita is expected to attain Category 4 status later today.
10:44 PM EDT Update
Hurricane is down to 965MB in pressure, around 110MPH maximum sustained winds. The track so far is good heading generally westward then a slight northerly movement into perhaps the central to northern Texas coasts.
It is likely that will strengthen further tonight into a category 3 system. The forecast calls for a category 4 storm later in the week as it moves toward the central Gulf. The door is open for to possibly reach category 5 status, but shear expected toward the end would hopefully prevent that strong a storm from making landfall.
The forecast track itself hasn't changed all that much yet.
Gulf coast residents from Northern Mexico to Louisiana will need to watch closely.
More available from Ed Dunham in the met blogs below, as well as in Clark Evans' blog from late Monday below Ed's latest.
Event-Related Links
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Houston/Galveston, TX Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi, TX Long Range Radar
Brownsville, TX Long Range Radar
Lake Charles, LA Long Range Radar
New Orelans, LA Long Range Radar
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Corpus Christi, TX, Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Brownsville, TX
CFHC Long term Key West Radar Recording of
Level 3 High Res Radar recording of passing south of the Keys
CFHC Long term Bahamas Radar Recording of
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Emergency Management/County info
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Broward County Emergency Management
Palm Beach County emergency managment
Miami-Dade County Emergency Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Video/Audio
Local Media/Television
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston
Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio
Web based Video and Audio
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, is doing his live audio show as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is on his way toward Texas. see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports n the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX not affiliated with the real
Reply and let us know of other links.
Rita
Animated model plots of
Google Map plot of
Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop
Philippe
Animated model plots of Philippe
Edited by Clark (Wed Sep 21 2005 08:28 PM)
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oil trader
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
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Katrina over NO and now heading to Houston. Who designed this diabolic hurricane season, Osama? Two big and crowded cities, and the two most neuralgic energy networks in less than a month.
One oil analyst called "the perfect storm". If affects Houston in the same way, I think that will be "too much" for the people and for the western economy. What a terrifying combination!. Meantime those oil rich nations, very hostile to US and democracy, still enjoying a lot watching this at CNN.
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JoeF
Registered User
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Loc: Tampa
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The eye should be leaving the KW Short Range shortly. Impressive site though.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The 72 hour forecast calls for to be at 120 kt, down from 125 kt at 48 hours. While the 72 hour forecast is the last forecast point before landfall, we should be careful about saying the forecast landfall intensity is 120 kt, since the 72-hour forecast point is still a ways off of the coast. If the storm is in a weakening trend by then, it could easily weaken from 120 kt before landfall between 72-96 hours. makes point forecasts, not exact landfall forecasts.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Just highlighting a line from the last paragraph of the 11pm discussion...wow...NHC doesn't usually say things like this:
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2
DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL
TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH SUGGEST
THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW
ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE -BASED SHIPS MODEL
THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL.
THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE
SHARP WEAKENING OF DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE
PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT
IN 60 HOURS.
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robynsmom
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Ridge Manor Florida
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Tampa Bay's Channel 10's Vortex takes more Northerly...right towards New Orleans, LA.
Please forgive me for questioning whether this would be better since N.O is already destroyed and evacuated or not.
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jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
Loc: Mobile,Al
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Clark or other Mets is there an area of the Gulf coast, we can say is pretty much safe at this point?(such as Ms/Al line east)
probably everything east of morgan city, la or so. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 21 2005 03:36 AM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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No area is truly safe until the storm passes a region by. That would inherently push us to Tallahassee and points east as being "safe."
Having said that, I do not see anything that would bring this storm in any further east than toward Baton Rouge. I feel very confident in saying that areas from New Orleans eastward are safe. I feel slightly less confident for the rest of the Louisiana coastline, but I think any direct impact will be upon the western part of the state at most.
The ridge is just not budging. As alluded to last night, outflow from Max is being fed into the northern and western extent of the ridge, helping to maintain its strength. This is potentially where the is failing to capture its strength from the get-go. There still isn't much to significantly erode or move the ridge in the 3-5 day time frame, though there are signs that it will begin to weaken and/or move slightly eastward. My forecast track thinking is largely unchanged from yesterday evening at this time, centered near Victoria, TX with areas from Beaumont to Corpus Christi in the main swath, though if anything I would shift it ever-so-slightly to the west given the evolution of the pattern.
Everyone from New Orleans west should still watch this one, but other than the potential flooding impacts from high waves on the far northern periphery of the storm to the city, I do not feel that there will be a direct impact from this storm anywhere from central Louisiana eastward.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Each forecast brings the intensity up...and only a little more than three weeks after , an discussion again mentions the possibility of reaching Cat 5 intensity.
Well at least will be tracking to the south of the warmest pool of the loop current, the area went directly over. And while it appears now that intensity at landfall will likely be a major hurricane, much more likely to be a Cat 3 than a Cat 5 at landfall, but possibly the same issue with storm surge as (surge does not have enough time to dissipate to match the lower intensity at landfall).
for JoeF - switch to long-range and you will be able to see her eye on radar for awhile longer, although radar will be looking into the clouds at a higher angle.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Wed Sep 21 2005 03:45 AM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Quote:
Tampa Bay's Channel 10's Vortex takes more Northerly...right towards New Orleans, LA.
Please forgive me for questioning whether this would be better since N.O is already destroyed and evacuated or not.
that thing has been either in line with the or way off base which in this case it is again way off base.
Something not seen by any other major model or the would have to happen for it to do that.Is it likely? no maybe 1% but its track record is about the same as the which is lousy.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Just remember that a stall/slowdown or a wobble could put this thing ANYPLACE along the texas/south west LA border. The probability cone is still monstrously large and doesn't have any large currents able to force to any particular place. She's going where she wants to go right now. Where do you go when the whole area is one weak pressure?
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I plotted 's current IR satellite image against a map of the GOM.
At 0245Z-last sat pic, 's outflow extended around 430nm to the North of the center. And around 397nm to the west. This is just the outflow envelope.
Very impressive in size.
By the way. The distance across the GOM, from Naples,FL to Matamoras,MX is near 850nm.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Oh yeah, I expect by tomorrow we're going to see most of the GOM covered in /outflow from . It really did jump in intensity once is started clearing the tip of Florida.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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cody
Registered User
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Posts: 1
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how much of a impact do you think this hurricane will have on the san antonio area and 60 miles westward of it? I know this storm is predicted to make landfall closer to galveston, then if it went in a northward path that would put it east of SA...but it should be a big storm...any ideas of what could happen? Winds? Heavey rain? just wanting to know input..
thanks,
cody
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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Largely heavy rains, yes; perhaps tropical storm-force winds with gusts into hurricane-force, depending upon where exactly the storm makes landfall. If the storm heads into San Antonio after landfall, hurricane conditions are possible. shouldn't leave quite the long-extending swath of damage inland quite like did, but what it does impact is going to be quite hard hit nonetheless. Keep an eye to what the storm is doing and make preparations as needed.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Well so you know, the current track(which i personally trust more) has coming in between Port Laveca and Freeport. I tend to think that tomorrow we'll see it shift a bit more north and closer to Galveston. I think San Antonio stands to get a fair bit of rain and definately some wind but I think you're going to be getting at worst Cat1 winds grazing you as the worst of the storm will be north/east of you and moving north away from you....
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Just one more ? before crashing...how often does this large anti-cyclonic upper air movement happen over the GOM? This is the same thing that helped with her very impressive outflow.
I guess this means we'll be seeing a large windfield with .
That probably means some water being pushed into Lake Ponchatrain by the next 48 hours.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Cody,
Bookmark this link for the windspeed probabilities.
The last advisory has Sant Antonio with an 18% probability of getting Tropical Storm force winds, between 7 PM CDT Friday Night and 7 PM CDT Saturday Night.
That is subject to, and will, change.
Tropical storm force winds are 39mph to 57mph. Severe thundertorm type winds...and damage.
San Antonio should be on the NW side of the storm, but be sure to stay away from low lying places...especially those with the Flood Markers and low water crossing markers.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/PWSAT3
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I wouldn't put N.O. in the clear just yet. If makes a NW turn sooner than expected all bets are off.
That's a big "if," though, and there's nothing to suggest it happening right now. Sure, it's a possibility and people in that area should watch the storm closely, but a direct impact is highly unlikely given the current pattern evolution. There is going to be some impact, yet, but a direct one isn't likely. Just my thoughts... -Clark
Edited by Clark (Wed Sep 21 2005 04:55 AM)
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Definately...wonder how strong is when she passes by NO. 4-8feet minimum storm surge I bet...lets pray on those levees, how far along the Corps of Engineers have come to shoring up all the OTHER levees that didn't break...
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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