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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Margie]
      #55620 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:01 AM

Quote:


OK - so 32mb drop in 24 hours (yest this time pressure was 988mb and now 956mb) is explosive deepening. This is what Katrina would have done the first day out of FL, if she had not encountered the difficulties with dry air. Symmetry looks very good on sat and looking at the 10:15Z and she looks very strong,





Uh, I hate to be the bearer of horrific news, but the pressure is estimated to be 948. That's a FORTY MB drop in 24 hours (not sure when the 988 was, if it was at 5am or 8am ET, but in either case... it's a HUGE drop!)... accompanied by a satellite image that we might not find comprehensible if we had not seen the exact same imagery 3 1/2 weeks ago with Katrina.

On the bright side... the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season OFFICIALLY ends November 30. That's only 2 1/2 more months of potential pure H****.

UPDATE: Newest IR imagery shows an EWRC - I think. The really nasty (black) on the northern eyewall has been replaced by much less threatening dark orange (which is less intense than even the bright red that covers much of the central dense overcast). Impossible to tell what this will bring, I think... but it's a sign that the blasted thing may not strengthen to a Cat 5 in the next three hours, at least.

UPDATE2: EWRC may have been premature on my part. The very next IR image shows the bright red returning to the northern eyewall. Eye looks a tad ragged (almost binocular-like).. could be shrinking... bad bad bad.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Wed Sep 21 2005 08:15 AM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Hugh]
      #55621 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:14 AM

Ok now that we are thoroughly aware of the potential of Rita My question is still how many more major hurricanes are going to form and who is left on the list to obliterate. The only potential danger that has not been met with a major storm is a direct hit on Tampa Bay. I believe all the coastlines have been struck: Pensacola, Fort Walton, Louisianna, Mississipi and Texas. I KNOW the Bucs are a favored football team to some of us but they ain't that good......Gallows humor Hopefully Rita will burn her fuel before she gets to Texas and she will be a rainstorm.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Hugh]
      #55622 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:15 AM

I'm not seeing any sign of a ERC on IR. The covection is blooming again after a 1-frame lapse:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...mp;numframes=20

--
GuppieGrouper: Based on SSTs and heat potential of the waters...the areas where major storms could form right now are southwest (northern hemisphere) Atlantic and south of Cuba.

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 21 2005 08:17 AM)


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks????? [Re: Clark]
      #55623 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:51 AM

there's been a lot of posts lately that poo-pooed the idea another cat 5 could form. But what perhaps missed their thinking was that the energy levels in the Gulf of Mexico may have been far from expended..

Rick, we know the energy is there, just not how much of it and what the storm can do with it. It's a crapshoot, really, given Katrina's passage and highlights how much we still don't know about intensity forecasting. The NHC has generally been below most others' calls for the storm thus far, which isn't a bad thing but does highlight their conservative nature and wanting to wait for actual data before upgrading a storm (which is what a certain member of the media always screams for but convieniently ignores when it doesn't prove his point). -Clark

since Katrina, we've had NO rain in Mobile...further, the humidity and heat index has been 105-110...August like stuff.

the weather this morning was less humid. Rita is sucking the moisture and heat into her LLC....which means that we will have beautiful weather while she slides south of us, and on to happless Texas. I don't think New Orleans will be affected. However, if the forward speed slows...then that will be a harbinger of a change in direction.

things change...and so will the projected landfall.....she might just stay west....or could hook toward Louisiana...
who knows?...but the NHC does an admirable job of forecasting, I think.

Edited by Clark (Wed Sep 21 2005 09:50 AM)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: 72-hour forecast [Re: Clark]
      #55624 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:54 AM

Here in Beamont the met is saying we could see TD or Cat 1 winds (not maintained, but some gusts) and rain. Possible power
outages. Projected landfall at this time is about 100 miles from us. Everyone is getting ready, stocking up and getting gas, etc.
(just incase the path changes). My sister lives in Sugarland so I am concerned. What effects will this storm have on the Houston
area if it hits between Palacious and Matagorda Bay as projected. Also, they are saying the storm may weaken before landfall.
Weaken to what catagory?


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks????? [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #55625 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:55 AM

Today in Beaumont we are supposed to reach 101degrees.

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: 00z GFS...a new twist [Re: danielw]
      #55626 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:57 AM

We don't need another Allison. She just didn't want to go away.

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Hugh]
      #55627 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:57 AM

Hugh, you sir are not the bearer of the horrific news.
Unfortunately, we have all been shaken by this hurricane season
and the monster storms it has produced.
Its great to see government leaders taking action in Texas to protect life and property as
much as possible.

What we had in Central florida last year with Charley, Jeanne and Francis was
and afternoon thunder storm compared to Katrina and now apparently Rita.

I've said it before that for me at least, knowing how horrific these storms are,
has begun to take the "fun" if it can be called fun out of tracking these things.

I'm ready for the season to be over.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Random Chaos]
      #55628 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:59 AM

Just heading off to work but wanted to note - look how much she's grown since 1am, and the eye looks very impressive.

Still seeing a distinct spiral pattern to the convection but I imagine if she continues to increase in intensity we'll see that smooth out and become very symmetrical.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #55629 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:03 AM

You are right these storms are taking the fun out of tracking...

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
movement [Re: trinibaje]
      #55630 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:08 AM

w-wsw

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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Margie]
      #55631 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:09 AM

Hi,
Iīm a storm tracker and meteorologist from Germany. Fortunatly enough, we donīt have hurricanes here.
I found this interesting forum some days ago and decided to join.
I have a question: Given that Rita heads for Texas. What would be the "best" location to make landfall there and what the "worst"?


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks????? [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #55632 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:12 AM

Rick I was definitely not seeing the ability to strengthen over the last 24 hour period that has just occured, because of a couple things I'll mention below. But I also don't care for the hunger for hype, and hunger for devastation. You only have to drive 60 miles to the west of you to be reminded of the eastmost edge of a horrible trail of coastline devastation that extends all the way to the tip of LA, so you would think people would have had enough, and wouldn't crave more. I've never understood that national cultural bent of the last 20 or so years.

It was not clear to me how much SSTs could support increased convection even with the increase in speed, without significant depths of warmer water, also I didn't pick up on the wind shear forecast to be as low as it turned out, but mainly I have begun to think since last night that the most important factor, which I knew about but which I did not put in proper order of importance, is the large anti-cyclonic movement in the upper atmosphere over the GOM. I now think this is the main factor beyond anything else in the past 24 hours that has facilitated strengthening, not the depth of warm water or lack of depth. I think this is key to whether high-intensity storms can form over the GOM.

I had always anticipated however that strengthening would occur during the time period we are in now, where the deeper warm waters exist in the southern GOM. So I think we'll definitely see continued strengthening right up until this evening.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks????? [Re: Margie]
      #55633 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:19 AM

Margie,

I was not going to say it, but I will anyway, there was nothing to keep Rita from intesnifying like she did as well as Katrina, that is Rita inside her. I said yesterday that I expected Rita to be a CAT4 by 48 HRS, well it has been only 24 HRS. I my memory serves me right, it was you who commented that there was no way the Rita would gather strength like she did due to the fact that the SST's were too low. Well, the water temps being reported all over the Gulf are well above 86 degrees. Hopefully for Texas Rita will start to diminish prior to landfall, but I don't see it in the forecast. It is never what you want to report, due to what Katrina left behind. There is no way knowing what she is going to do, and again, if the ridge slides east and weakens, then N.O is not out of the woods yet, only till Rita crosses that Longitude.

Rita's letters being inside of Katrina has nothing to do with its intensity. The sea surface temperatures are still warm, but they are not everything. That's what myself and many others, including Margie, have been looking at to try to diagnose the future intensity of the storm. Just because Katrina did one thing does not mean that Rita will do the same. -Clark

Edited by Clark (Wed Sep 21 2005 09:52 AM)


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks????? [Re: Margie]
      #55635 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:23 AM

I was just doing some comparing between Katrina's location and presssure and Rita's. Based on Advis, ( http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005/KATRINA/track.dat )Katrina was in about the same location and same pressure but weaker winds.

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: 5 AM EDT Advisory [Re: Hugh]
      #55636 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:36 AM

They're evacuating the Astrodome because it's not safe in a hurricane - it has a glass roof!. All the NOLA evacuees that were still in shelters along the coast (including the Astrodome) were flown either to Arkansas or Tenn. Mostly to Arkansas.

At this point, with Rita as big as she is - I don't think there's a 'best' place for it to hit Texas - Bret hit Kenedy County as did Allen (I think) but Rita is bigger. The 'worst' place? The place I know best is Galveston and up the Houston ship channel. You can see what a catastrophic hurricane might do in this video that the Harris County OEM put together - The Serpent's Coil at http://www.hcoem.org/videos.htm there are other videos there too about hurricanes and Harris County.

Well, now some tv mets here are saying we'll see TS winds and some are saying hurricane winds here. Guess it will be pretty close!

I'm still trying to figure out Rita's physical size vs other hurricanes like Katrina and Carla...


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Cindi
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Loc: Panama City, FL
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks????? [Re: Lisa NC]
      #55637 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:44 AM

Thank you all for replying to me yesterday regarding the storm hitting the FL Panhandle. I do have another question, though...if this storm is going where it wants, what keeps it from doing a loop and coming back towards FL? I have lived in Panama City for the last 17 years, and only recently (since those darn "IVAN" spawened tornadoes we went through last year) have I really gotten itchy about these storms. I have told my husband we are LEAVING if any come our way... I'd rather watch it on TV at my sister's house than go through that mess again.

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
Margie... [Re: Margie]
      #55638 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:45 AM

You posted this.....But I also don't care for the hunger for hype, and hunger for devastation.

You adjective is understandable....but perhaps replace "hunger" with fascination or awe....that's what it is. NO ONE wants a cat 5 storm. no one. (well, maybe a sado-masichist does...but I doubt there are any on this board...ha!

but it should teach mankind how puny he really is...and perhaps....how ineffective he is at governing and ruling himself. I mean, truthfully, if the hurricane hits Galveston, thousands will die....they know it...yet thousands will still die.

go figure....


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Rita [Re: The Force 2005]
      #55639 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:47 AM

Well, I suppose it is a guessing game on how strong Rita is until they can get a plane in there. It looks very well organized, but does not quite look as good as Katrina did when it became a cat 5, with more of a spiral organization compared to the big donut that Katrina turned into. My guess is a central pressure of 940 mb with a top wind speed of 125 knots.

I kind of hope that it at least maintains itself until a plane gets in there and we can see how strong it has gotten. After that, I hope it begins a long weakening trend.


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks????? [Re: Lisa NC]
      #55640 - Wed Sep 21 2005 09:53 AM

Yes, Katrina didn't turn into a monster for about another day after it's initial entrance into the florida straits/GOM. It was moving at about 1/3 of the speed and took much longer to build. Katrina was also held back by a dry ridge that kept feeding dry air into it. God, now that I remember, imagine what Katrina COULD have done if that dryu ridge hadn't chomped on her for about a day. Inconceivable. Unfortunately, Rita doesn't have anything like that at all...

The problem with Rita is that she is covering alot more distance/quicker so it has a greater source of energy from the warm waters then Katrina did.

As for the people who say that Katrina took alot of the energy out of the GOM, lets remember its been 3 weeks of hot temperatures since Katrinca came through. The SST's have had a chance to rebound some and i'm sure that enough mixing has occured that I personally don't see the waters Katrina mixed up as slowing this monster's growth down.(and I think that the explosive growth we've seen proves that as well).

I told Hugh in a private msg that all of us amateurs AND the professionals are thinking of Rita about 6-12 hours behind what its actually doing. We were talking of it like it was a CAT2 when it was already a CAT3 and heading for a 4. 40mb in 24 hours is astounding! We need to get ahead of this one.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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