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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #55662 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:33 AM

Beaumont,

Take this for what it is worth: By Joe B.

I BELIEVE Rita WILL BE THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER TO HIT TEXAS...

Now that should say alot about the storm that hit GAL.


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #55664 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:37 AM

This is Joe B's full post:

WEDNESDAY: Rita HITS TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN PORT LAVACA AND GALVESTON AS A CATEGORY 4 OR 5. CARLA'S PRESSURE TO BEAT IS 935. A MAJOR SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION SIGNALS END OF SUMMER PATTERN.

1.) No major changes on Rita, the though timing and end game path tweaking will be needed later as we get closer to landfall. Expected landfall is southwest of Alicia, but northeast of Carla, the last two category 3 or greater storms to hit here. Comparisons to Carla to be contained in later day disco. Model swings will not influence forecast here until at least tomorrow, if ever.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: what to expect.... [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #55665 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:42 AM

Have not seen any surge numbers above 30 ft for Katrina. 30 ft measured in Biloxi, and 29 and 30 ft measurements in BSL, these are official numbers. Am going to be getting some more info on this soon. Remember there were waves on top of the surge, but only right at the shoreline. The surge right at the coast went inland an average of 1/2 mile and for the most part between 1/4 mile and 3/4 mile, as can be seen by comparison of NOAA high-resolution images showing the debris line at the edge of the surge, with topographic maps that show elevation. Exceptions: All of Plaquemines Parish was at a low enough elevation as to probably be completely underwater from Venice to some points northward as Katrina passed over. Also the topography of St Bernard rendered it very vulnerable to flooding from the Gulf side, even without the levee and canal failures. Some areas inland of BSL continued at a low enough elevation to allow the surge further inland. The surge also affected shoreline bordering bays, inlets, rivers, and streams. The key to determining if surge will hit a location would be the elevation and proximity the coastline, which would be hit with waves as well.

It will be interesting in future to see classification and categorization of hurricanes beyond the intensity scale. I will be interested someday to see analysis of more subtle characteristics that will point to specific behaviors.

For instance, with Katrina, the pressure drops came first and then winds caught up. This catch up took a long time to complete; the first several days over the GOM pressures were always lower than the corresponding windspeeds while fighting dry air.

With Rita, the windspeeds increased ahead of the pressure and organization of the storm. The time this discrepancy was most obvious was when the winds increased to Cat 2 level.

Looking at it from a casual point of view you might say each storm has its own personality. However I am sure it is a set of commonalities that will eventually be defined and will be able to lead to identification of storm characteristics that will help forecast intensity and other behaviors.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Wed Sep 21 2005 10:50 AM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: what to expect.... [Re: Margie]
      #55667 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:52 AM

11am has 140 mph winds and the same track basiclly.My question is what city and area is the landfall track right now? if it were to hit where they got the dot (not likely but) that that be med bad or worse then north or what?

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans [Re: The Force 2005]
      #55668 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:52 AM

Just heard that the Hurricane Hunters are having electrical problems on the plane so there is difficulty getting accurate and current data. No mention of another plane going out. Could be later today for accurate readings

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks????? [Re: Cindi]
      #55669 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:52 AM

Cindi,

I will try to address your concerns from the post you placed earlier. There is a very strong high pressure ridge that has settled over us in the FL Panhandle. This, along with other factors, is protecting us from Rita (like a "bubble" over us), pushing the storm west. The high has the potential to weaken and move east over the next couple of days and that is what should cause the storm to turn north and head toward TX. But by then the storm will be well to the west of the FL Panhandle. There is a front dropping from the NE that could influence the path but it is weak and will probably not have too much influence on it. The front is probably not strong enough to force is back to the extreme NE- our direction. I believe the most the front could do is push it into LA or perhaps extreme sw Mississippi, but it is unlikely that will even happen. I think we can breathe a sigh of relief for ourselves. Just pray for the people to the west of us- they need it again!

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: what to expect.... [Re: Margie]
      #55670 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:53 AM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. Rita IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.


OUCH. It's still dropping like a stone and there is nothing stopping it. 140mph and 944mb...could be a CAT5 within hours if no ERC occurs...

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: what to expect.... [Re: Psyber]
      #55671 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:56 AM

so if this is the landfall spot http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518.html is that real bad area or does it save the ports some with that landfall??

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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 46
Loc: Wacissa, FL
Re: Track [Re: The Force 2005]
      #55672 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:57 AM

Even this far out, almost all models (including the FSU Superensemble) show a landfall close to Matagorda Bay. So far (and it is too early for more than speculation), no one has mentioned potential devistating effects of a slowly weakening hurricane well inland.

Victoria at first, but later Luling, Austin (and if the sharp right-hand turn predicted happens), Bryan/College Sta.

As the track becomes more certain, most sane people will get away from the coastal areas. Texans living inland should remember the effects of fast-moving Hurricane Charlie, and the 100+mph winds all the way up the peninsula through Orlando and Daytona.


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Psyber]
      #55673 - Wed Sep 21 2005 10:59 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Track [Re: Marknole]
      #55674 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:00 AM

Quote:

Even this far out, almost all models (including the FSU Superensemble) show a landfall close to Matagorda Bay. So far (and it is too early for more than speculation), no one has mentioned potential devistating effects of a slowly weakening hurricane well inland.

Victoria at first, but later Luling, Austin (and if the sharp right-hand turn predicted happens), Bryan/College Sta.

As the track becomes more certain, most sane people will get away from the coastal areas. Texans living inland should remember the effects of fast-moving Hurricane Charlie, and the 100+mph winds all the way up the peninsula through Orlando and Daytona.





totally different monkey as charle was over flat land which texas is not.


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #55675 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:01 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: what to expect.... [Re: ralphfl]
      #55676 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:02 AM

the NHC has the track a little N/E of that position which i tend to agree with...point really will be moot though because it's going to be monstrous and will probably affect almost all of the Texas Gulf Coast with at least Cat1 winds/monster storm surge...

You never want to wish harm to one set of people to spare others but its better that it hits there instead of hitting NO/Biloxi again. If i was within 100miles of the Gulf Coast in Texas, i'd seriously consider going inland more right about now.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Track [Re: ralphfl]
      #55677 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:04 AM

True, but fast moving strong storms can come inland quite a ways. Carla was a 4 in 1961 and was still a 1 when she got near Austin. It all depends on where it hits, the angle and direction. Carla caused alot of damage all the way to Dallas.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: what to expect.... [Re: Psyber]
      #55678 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:06 AM

It should be noted that nobody really knows exactly how strong the storm is right now... the winds and pressure are conservative estimates based on the satellite appearance. If the winds and pressure from the next recon flight come in signficantly different from the current values, that will not necessarily mean the storm is rapidly changing, but that the original estimates were off.

There is a NOAA plane in the air right now. I assume we will be getting some recon fixes from that in an hour or two.


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: what to expect.... [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55679 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:10 AM

To all Weather Experts:

We all seen earlier in the season what the African dust did to elimiate the developemnet of tropical lows/depressions/storms.

So why can they have 4 planes go into each quadrant of the hurricane and drop 10,000 lb bags of sand into the storm. What effects will this have to reduce the size or intensity if the African dust was capable of doing it.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: we need skeetobite [Re: The Force 2005]
      #55680 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:10 AM

Quote:

Does anyone want to predict the price of a gallon of gas by Saturday/Sunday timeframe.




Just paid $2.55 last night. I'm sure it will push $3.50 or more but what concerns me more than price, which does concern me is the availability. If you can't get it, it really doesn't matter how much it cost.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: what to expect.... [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55681 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:12 AM

well i tend to try and look at best case not worst like wondering what gas will be the weekend and how strong thw storm will be.I tend to try and look for good things that may happen like this from the NHC....The heat content in the western Gulf of
Mexico is not as favorable as in the area of The Loop current so
slight weakening is anticipated....but Rita is expected to make
landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Hey its hope and maybe the north turn won't happen.Im not saying for anyone to let there guard down but many people are like Fox news in that unless its bad they won't post.If this storm got weaker from some reason many would stop posting.say its not true but your wrong.

We live in a day of the more bad the news is the more we talk about it.So posts like lets bet how many rigs wash ashore or what the price of gas is going to be sat to me are ....................... anyway yoiu guys build it up ill try and pray it down.


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: we need skeetobite [Re: The Force 2005]
      #55682 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:12 AM

I don't think gas prices will be the big issue soon- it will be a matter of just being able to get your hands on it!

FYI- conditions in NW FL Panhandle: Rita is almost directly below us, offshore about 350 miles. Pressure is fairly steady, humidity very low 65%) for our area, N winds about 5 mph, not a cloud in the sky. East Bay flow is moving rapidly W and the mullet are jumpin'! The fish are having a party... I don't hear any birds but the cichadas (sp?) are partyin' too!

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Track [Re: ralphfl]
      #55684 - Wed Sep 21 2005 11:13 AM

Quote:



totally different monkey as charle was over flat land which texas is not.





Actually, the part of Texas that Rita is heading for is very flat like Florida.

--------------------
Jim


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