Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Objective T-numbers of 7.0 indicate for suggest cat 5 intensity. I guess we'll find out soon how well the satellite estimate corresponds to reality this time.
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Marknole
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 46
Loc: Wacissa, FL
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Shana, I don't know the geography of S.E. Texas too well, (but N.W. of San Antonio is the "Hill Country", so there must be some elevation.
Ralph, I see your point, but the path Charlie took is the Highlands Ridge (Polk, Orange, Lake Counties, etc.) Not exactly a mountain chain, but it never did break up the circulation enough to elevate the highest surface winds. My point was a major hurricane, moving along at a fast clip brings inland winds to places that don't see more than an occasional Severe T.S. (Remeber the damage from Hugo all the way to Columbia & Charlotte...)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Just got a chance to look at the satellite images.
Looking stronger, more symmetric, and larger, and appears to have strengthened in the last couple of hours. On visual, the "buzzsaw" appearance much clearer, the eye looking more like a Cat 5, and the area of the eyewall just surrounding it as well; seeing more smoothed appearance with those little ripples/crinkles all around. On IR, has the appearance of a strong Cat 4 or Cat 5; buzzsaw appearance even more striking. Most recent image from 14:45 shows this most pronounced and the continued move towards complete symmetry in the core windfield. Also this image shows the stadium effect quite well, which means windspeeds have increased significantly since a couple of hours ago. The eye looks like it has tightened up (because of the stadium effect it still appears to be larger).
I am seeing some shear to the W and N, on the high winds of the outflow, but this doesn't seem to really be affecting the storm.
Like this storm has very strong spiral banding feature and the eyewall characteristics also seem to be very similar.
The difference in organization and growth of the core windfield between the 09:15Z and the 14:45Z images are striking on wv loop.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Chris Bryant
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: NC
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I found one here: http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Wed Sep 21 2005 11:19 AM)
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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From the Site Usage Rules:
"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no
content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of
meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a
good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for
this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember,
is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to
stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."
The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. is not a Chat
Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way.
Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners
add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that
have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you
ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are
that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for
their input. Personal information does not belong on this site - it just
clutters it. Keep in mind that there is another Forum for asking questions
of a more general weather nature - please use it when appropriate. When you
post a one-liner like "I think that its moving WSW" and you don't include
anything else - like WHY you think this - its going to get deleted by the
Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a
bunch of complaints from other site users - we attempt to resolve the
problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of
site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable
experience for all of the site users. Thanks for your help on this.
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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Boy, that doesn't look good at all...
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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"drop 10,000 lb bags of sand into the storm"
LMAO! Great plan!
Please make sure it's not over residential area when the bomb bay doors are opened.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
I found one here: http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp
thanks nice map.If it stays the way it is that will miss many rigs lets pray it stays south like the track has right now.
Thanks for that post,.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Ralph,
I was not posting or hoping the magnitude of a particular storm. It is by nature, and I use that word, because we all seen the panic that came with at least 3/4 days in advance of landfall. The prices were hitting $6.00 a gallon in Atlanta. Then there after were still quite high. The nature of these storms causes panic especially the oil platforms and pipelines. It is a fact of life, that when a storm with the size and wind field potenial as has, the concern for oil prices take a hit and spike up. That is all I was trying to relate to.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Just read the 11am discussion.
I think the intensity forecast will be increased even more once they get some recon info. Hard to believe now that I look at the 12-hr throught 36-hr intensity forecast and see it as being conservative, but looking at the satellite images it would seem so.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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traka
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Loc: Altamonte
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You are not serious are you, Force?
There is an artical in Scientific American about controlling hurricanes.
Here's a Slashdot link to it.
Controlling Hurricanes
I think that the last thing we need to do is try to control them. Well... plugging up volcanoes is the last thing we need to do, but controling hurricanes is a close second.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Actually over the shear speculation of the storm, gas prices already jumped I believe yesterday or the day before, barrels were up $3-4 per. Let us not also forget that all of the off shores that were previously damaged and then folks sent back to those to work will be moved out again. Anything that missed and or damaged will sustain more of the same this time. I know in Tampa I have seen the prices spike a couple of cents the last couple of days. I would suggest filling now to avoid the increase and rush. Here is a site that will tell you the cheapest in your areas http://www.gasbuddy.com/
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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You are correct, the area at this point forecast is very flat and marshy/swampy much like the SW side of FL in which passed over prior to getting into the GOM
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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but if you look at the map http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp and look at it if the strom stays that dir or even some south it will not do as much damage as if it goes north.
What im saying is if it stays the path it won't be worse case for Gas.IMO i don't see as bad as if the path holds since not alot of rigs in its path as with the other storm.
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
Shana, I don't know the geography of S.E. Texas too well, (but N.W. of San Antonio is the "Hill Country", so there must be some elevation.
Houston is as flat as a pancake... 55ft. elevation.
As you head up towards Dallas (about 500ft. elevation), where the storm is headed, there are rolling hills.
The hill country is way far west of Houston, past Austin and San Antonio, but the storm's not headed that way.... 
And to continue the geography lesson, the population of metro Houston is 4 million+, not 2 million as suggested earlier... 
Allison
{This post to be sent to the Hurricane Graveyard...}
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Assuming I am interpreting the data correctly, the NOAA plane found flight-level winds of 136 knots and surface winds (from the SFMR) of 123 knots in the NE quadrant of the storm about 15 minutes ago.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I had already looked that the Rig Map prior to responding,
Edit - I think we need to move oil price future posts to another thread.
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Wed Sep 21 2005 11:48 AM)
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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Could anyone please tell me if will keep her forward speed as she approaches the coast? She's moving pretty quickly. Our saving grace w/Dennis (if you could call it that) was the fact that he didn't stick around- he was not looking to vacation here and so the damage in Navarre was alot less than it could/should have been for a Cat 3. I'm hoping this will be the case again for TX... but professional input would be appreciated.
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Margie,
This goes back to my post yesterday in why I thought would reach CAT 4 in 48hrs. Everyone has to understand that the GOM is an incapsulated body of water. left the area 3 weeks ago. It is like a sheet of ice in the summertime, and with no storms to arouse the water or whitecaps, it sits there and ferments. Again, the Surface temps are running well above 86 degrees, and with the fast movement of , it is not upwelling cooler water to affect her weaking process. It is not what everyone wants to hear, but it is a reality, we are witnessing possibly another worst case scenario for another big city.
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