Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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If the pressure was as high as 922 mb at 10000 feet, then we would have something else to worry about besides a hurricane 
Here is the latest recon:
000
URNT12 KNHC 211728
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:02:40Z
B. 24 deg 12 min N
085 deg 56 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 142 deg 142 kt
G. 036 deg 013 nm
H. 923 mb
I. 12 C/ 2447 m
J. 26 C/ 2436 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. STADIUM
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / nm
P. AF306 WXWXA 05092114306 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 142 KT NE QUAD 16:58:40 Z
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Ed in VA, it will go sw- then west over the next couple days but most likely nothing will happen. Anyways should be about 150mph at 5pm adv at the least maybe higher.
Edited by scottsvb (Wed Sep 21 2005 01:42 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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2 more MBs and it passes Andrew on the list of most intense
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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perfect eye wall now. When the deep convection finally becomes completely circular.....in about another 2 hours...she'll be a 5...maybe already is.
she "appears" to be starting to inch northward. does anyone else see that?.....hope I am wrong but I haven't seen wobbles from her....which makes me think she is starting her banana curve....
ewrc's will start soon.
excellent posts everyone...hope Hank Frank is wrong on Galveston area.
edit - removed the NO part - let's not cause needless panic.
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Wed Sep 21 2005 01:54 PM)
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Cane Watcher
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: ATL/ via Melbourne
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Those guys are unsung heros. You couldn't pay me enough to strap into a 20 year old plane and fly through a rotating 150mph wall of water.
You are absolutely correct about that!!!
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Psyber,
These are state of the art aircraft. These are newer c-130's specifically for these missions.
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zmdz01
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
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You can almost feel the tension on the boards...waiting for the 2 PM to be posted.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Yep, thought I saw the same posted @ 12:37 of the 05:15:45 UTC image. Could have just been a hop, though have not seen her do too much hopping as of yet
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Unfortunately, there is no 2pm advisory scheduled, since no watches or warnings are currently in place. Hopefully, they will at least throw us a bone and give us an official update before the 5pm advisory.
The weather geeks among us can really appreciate the 26C temperature reading at 700mb found in the eye. That is hard to comprehend if you have spent any time looking at 700mb charts.
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LSUHurricane
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 6
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i believe that the eye has great potential to become larger in size (like ), if you look at this loop posted already posted by someone?, it has grown pretty rapidly in about 12-18 hrs. web page
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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You know the intensity is alot stronger now when RECON is reporting a Stadium effect.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Climatology is interesting...no recorded Sep3+ storm at the same location has hit TX directly.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_climo.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
Unfortunately, there is no 2pm advisory scheduled, since no watches or warnings are currently in place. Hopefully, they will at least throw us a bone and give us an official update before the 5pm advisory.
There are intermediate advisories three hours after the main advisories. So, at 2pm EDT or 1pm CDT, there will be new coordinates, and I'm sure a decrease in pressure due to the recon report that just came in. The track forecast and discussions only occur every 6 hours...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Looks as if she gets any larger she could cover TX
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center AT
4 PM CDT.
there are not int. adv. unless there are watches or warnings
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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153KT Flight level winds
920MB pressure
Ok, Now I'm worried...
heh
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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000
URNT12 KNHC 211808
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:53:20Z
B. 24 deg 17 min N
086 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2400 m
D. 110 kt
E. 277 deg 005 nm
F. 016 deg 153 kt
G. 287 deg 007 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 9 C/ 3040 m
J. 26 C/ 3050 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A OB 05
MAX FL WIND 153 KT W QUAD 17:51:30 Z
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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WTNT63 KNHC 211807
TCUAT3
HURRICANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Lsr1166
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Tallahassee, Florida
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From the 2:15 Update
000
WTNT63 KNHC 211807
TCUAT3
HURRICANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.
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