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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: ridging to the north [Re: gk]
      #56004 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:09 PM

Recap for this page.

Gilbert 888
Labor Day 1935 892

Those are the numbers Rita is going after.


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gk
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
Re: ridging to the north [Re: gk]
      #56006 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:11 PM

The system appears to be pushing the drier air out of the way allowing Rita to move more north than west.

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: ridging to the north [Re: gk]
      #56007 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:15 PM

Appears that way...but I'm sure someone will come on & tell us that that isn't what's really happening.

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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: ridging to the north [Re: gk]
      #56008 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:18 PM

This is my take on all the NW bashing, the SAT Infrared Loops dictate a NW movement along the forecasted track if you plot the NHC points. I beleive the NHC does not want to say it for certain unless an extreme Northerly turn happens when the ridge weakens or I think Rita is having an effect on that ridge and may be pushing it out of her way. Do you see the concern if it did turn to the NW. The residents along LA to N.O would again be under the gun. But the NHC is sticking to their track for now.

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: MissBecky]
      #56009 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:18 PM

A little while ago on CNN they did a animation if Rita were to come in @ Galveston and claim an episonic erosion would occur min 300 feet and all the way into Texas City + would be under water.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 74
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
Re: houston we have a problem [Re: HanKFranK]
      #56011 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:20 PM

Quote:


get ready for $4 a gallon gas next week. i'm hoping against hope that the scramble that jacked prices up worse than otherwise a few weeks ago won't be repeated, but people are probably going to stampede all the same.




If this can be taken as official sanction to discuss economic impacts of the storm (about which I am more confident than I am about my met talents in this crowd), allow me to suggest the possibility that some may not be able to buy gas at any price if the forward right quadrant of this storm hits the Houston/Beaumont area. In fact, the entire coast from Corpus Christi to the LA border has numerous refineries producing about 25% of the nation's gasoline. Add to this the refining capacity still not on-line in LA and you have, I'm sure, loss of more than half the refining capacity supplying the eastern 3/4 of the country (CA is largely independent and refines its own gas crude sources in the Pacific littoral including Alaska). If you recall, we had stations that had no gas immediately after Katrina. I expect this to be much worse.


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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Re: ridging to the north [Re: twizted sizter]
      #56012 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:22 PM

Some comments that this is one of those annular hurricanes that does not experiencedthe usual EWRC. I remember similar talk with regard to KAT. So do any of you weather brainiacs have any historical perspective on that type of storm?

it has a small eye... not the large-eye annular profile. it will undergo cycles like you'd normally expect. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 21 2005 08:25 PM)


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: KATFIVE]
      #56013 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:22 PM

When the winds catch up with the drop to 898, we will see the winds at 185. But it has already been reported by Accuweather that the winds are sustained at 185MPH.

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: houston we have a problem [Re: HanKFranK]
      #56014 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:22 PM

What do you mean by "worse in the Beaumont, Port Arthur area"? Thanks for the information. As of now we only have a
voluntary evacuation so do not plan to leave but will leave if the storm turns more north. Many in lower MId-County (such as
Port Arthur) are leaving.


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BCoEng16C
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Maryland,USA
8:00 Update [Re: MikeC]
      #56015 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:25 PM

According to the Weather Channel the 7:00cdt report still has the winds at 165mph 898mb......

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56016 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:25 PM

Quote:

When the winds catch up with the drop to 898, we will see the winds at 185. But it has already been reported by Accuweather that the winds are sustained at 185MPH.




Accuweather's website reports that the winds were GUSTING to 185mph. Now they're reporting GUSTING to 200mph, but sustained at 165mph. No one is reporting sustained winds at 185mph at the surface right now, at least not when I checked five minutes after someone claimed that Accuweather was reporting 185mph sustained winds. I expected the NHC to increase the winds at 8pm ET but they didn't.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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gk
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
Re: ridging to the north [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56017 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:26 PM

I understand the reasoning, but is it possible that a storm of this magnitude can actually affect it's environment and confuse the models as I believe Andrew did. Just trying to get conformation as to what I'm seeing.

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: ridging to the north [Re: The Force 2005]
      #56018 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:27 PM

That's the point...I understand the HAVE to make sure...but the majority of the public doesn't read message boards such as these & they believe what they're being told as set in stone...may have even learned after Charley to focus on the cone & not the line...but oh my...can you imagine if this is going beyond the cone?!?!

Look at the NAmerican...think thats the name...water vapor loop...you can clearly see her just pushing it right on out of her way.

Not wishcasting, jumping on a bandwagon, hyping, scaring or anything else...just making an observation. Please correct me if I'm wrong.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Hugh]
      #56019 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:28 PM

The WNW motion has now been sustained for 8 hours based on recon. This isn't just a jog:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

---

Rita, as of noon today: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2005264-0921/Rita.A2005264.1610.1km.jpg

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 21 2005 08:30 PM)


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LSUHurricane
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 6
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Random Chaos]
      #56020 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:30 PM

the newest 18Z GFDL is apparently buying the northwest component. it has changed to galveston bay.

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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: ridging to the north [Re: twizted sizter]
      #56022 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:33 PM

Twisted, you are correct in what you are observing. Sooner or later, it will become appearant, hopefully not, but the NW component take place. But again, we are tied and glued to what the NHC puts, because they are regulated and have policy and guidance as what they are to report.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: ridging to the north [Re: twizted sizter]
      #56023 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:33 PM

Quote:

That's the point...I understand the HAVE to make sure...but the majority of the public doesn't read message boards such as these & they believe what they're being told as set in stone...may have even learned after Charley to focus on the cone & not the line...but oh my...can you imagine if this is going beyond the cone?!?!
Look at the NAmerican...think thats the name...water vapor loop...you can clearly see her just pushing it right on out of her way.
Not wishcasting, jumping on a bandwagon, hyping, scaring or anything else...just making an observation. Please correct me if I'm wrong.




Yeah, after all of the hurricanes I've been through that have threatened the area I live in, I take the cone with a tiny grain of salt, and I ignore the black line pretty much. Not saying anyone should do either, and with modern computers the forecasts are lots better than they used to be, but storms like this are so rare they don't have sufficient data to be able to forecast them 100% accurately. To do as well as they do is amazing, really.

Rita is now due north almost of the first forecast point on SSD's loops.

Update: New models spread between Galveston and just west of the TX/LA line, it appears. That's a definate shift in the northeast outliers.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Wed Sep 21 2005 08:36 PM)


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oil trader
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Re: houston we have a problem [Re: HanKFranK]
      #56024 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:34 PM

The fact that Rita has reached this kind of intensification so fast 3 days before landfall could not turn out a good sign for her to weaken significantly over the GOM? I mean, is there a possibility that she could implode offshore? Or the chances are for maintaining itself from CAT 3 to CAT 5 without any land barrier for the next 3 days?

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Goosus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 21
Loc: Boise ID
Re: Category 5 Hurricane Rtia Moves Westward in the Gulf [Re: Random Chaos]
      #56025 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:38 PM

Either I'm crazy, or am I the only one who is noticing that according to the NHC storm coordinates, Rita did not move West during the time between the 5PM and 8PM Advisories? Take a look at the Google map plot, it only drifted a little due north. This doesn't look like movement due west at 13 mph to me.

17 09/21 5:00 PM 24.4N 86.8W
17A 09/21 8:00 PM 24.5N 86.8W

I know that storm centers can jog and wobble, but am I missing something here?

If this northward movement component continues, some drastically different evacuation plans will have to be formulated. I think with a storm this intense, it starts to push other weather features out of the way instead of vice versa, and the normal tendancy of hurricane is to trend northward.


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: houston we have a problem [Re: oil trader]
      #56026 - Wed Sep 21 2005 08:40 PM

Oil Trader, I don't anticipate a CAT 5 upon landfall, but a highend CAT 4. I will use the phrase what Max Mayfield said on the Weather Channel:

He said the difference between a CAT5 and a CAT 4 is like getting run over by a freight train or getting hit by an 18 wheelr, the outcome is not good.


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