Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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AF300 is still out there..(i think)... 306 is back at base now.... near ATL.... don't see any NOAA planes up....
I know AF300 has had problems this year... and i think the plane is one of the older ones too.... (based on data format)
NOAA9 last report was at :
OBS 26
UZNT13 KWBC 220125
Latest AF obs i have:
URNT11 KNHC 220038
97779 00344 50295 8481/ 70100 12015 6573/ /5762
RMK AF300 1418A OB 26
LAST REPORT
URNT11 KNHC 220041
97779 21504 40256 87908 30500 06051 09098 /3085
40545
RMK AF300 1418A OB 20
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 21 2005 10:47 PM)
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Remember that wind speed is not the only signif facor in determining surge - more water and waves are pushed up by long fetches over open water and how fast it piles up against a coastline depends critically on the slope of the beach underwater and the shape of the shoreline
Katrina was particularly bad because lots of water was pushed w by the winds n of the storm into a nice v shaped area above the MIss river delta and s of the Ala'Miss/La gulf coast
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Quote:
Looking back at the storm history, was a 70 mph tropical storm exactly 24 hours ago... an increase of 105 mph in 24 hours, and a pressure drop of 93 MB. UNBELIEVABLE... if people had not predicted it two days ago, that is. Downright frightening in any case.
Correction... it was 110 mph 24-hours ago, with a pressure of 965. Your numbers had to be from 48-hours ago.
OOps, looked on the wrong line! Sorry about that. Still, a 68mb drop in 24 hours and a 93 mb drop in 48 is unbelievable.
ETA: Public advisory says movement is toward the WEST. Marine Advisory says the movement is toward the WEST-NORTHWEST OR 280 degrees. This kind of conflicting informing is dangerous.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Sep 21 2005 10:53 PM)
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gk
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
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Take a look at the band coming on shore in flagler/st. johns/duval counties (home). That is an example of how big how fast.
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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Jim Cantorre on reported that Galveston would not have the surge problems that NO had because of the shallowness of the gulf by Galveston vs NO. He said Galveston would have more waves and beach erosion problems.
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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today is the aniversarry of the N.E. hurricane of 1938, and we are worrying about anothing major system..thats just dandy
what did people answer on the poll, or i guess my qiestion is who answered Stan???
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Ob #26 was the last report for AF300 (Ob #20 was transmitted after that, but actually came beforehand). According to the recon POD, the next plane is scheduled to be in the storm at 05Z.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Steve,
Take this for what it is worht. Dr. Lyons just said that will hit the Texas coast at 155+ upon landfall. Any other information you need to make a life and death decision, not to scare you, but think of your family.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
No, its not worth staying, I have never seen this many people evacuate. It took my family 12 hours to travel 120 miles north towards Dallas. Im really afraid of being stuck out on the freeway though
Stevie. Steve lives in Old Metarie...just west Of Downtown New Orleans. He wanted to stay and send his wife and children upstate.
We pleaded with him to leave. Steve did leave. His house and some of his relatives houses are gone.
Clear Lake is not that high above sea level.
Take the 12 hour drive and go to Dallas.
Better Yet...Go west to San Antonio. Just stay away from the low areas and the Hill Country.
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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
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How can they have a systemic computer failure at a time like this? I thought they had redundency etc. etc.? This is a historic storm and I'm not sure I trust anything completely other than a plane in the air taking direct measurements. The IRs and everything I'm seeing suggests that this is a low ball figure! Meaning central pressure etc.
Edited by KATFIVE (Wed Sep 21 2005 10:59 PM)
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Quote:
Steve,
Take this for what it is worht. Dr. Lyons just said that will hit the Texas coast at 155+ upon landfall. Any other information you need to make a life and death decision, not to scare you, but think of your family. [
/quote] This post was for Steve in Texas.
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gk
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Flagler Beach, FL
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Wave hgt south of Mobile was last reported at 7.9 ft and south of Panama City 10.5. Ahead of the storm are much lower, but to the north higher. The bouys near the storm have been knocked out/not reporting.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The last forecast point before landfall has the intensity at 135 kts (155 mph), which I assume is what Dr. Lyons is referring to. However, keep in mind that is a point forecast and the storm will still be off the coast by then. If it is in a weakening trend at that point, it will come in weaker than that. Forecast landfall will occur somewhere between 48-72 hours.
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Galveston could still be in big trouble - City is only 10 feet above sea level and very flat - Cat 2-3 wind and waves could overwash the entire island
Then if Galveston bay is on E side of storm more water could be pushed up into Houston as the Bay narrows
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stevie
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 13
Loc: Clear Lake, Texas
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Thanks, I am going to leave. I have been an avid strom chaser since 1976, went through Alicia(1983), Claudette(1979) , Jerry(1989), Chantal(1989). and Allison(2002), but NEVER a (2005). Wisdom will win out over my love for HURRICANES.
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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My brother-in-law, who runs a restaurant on Galveston Island, got his wife and 4 kids out of there this afternoon. He was going to board up his restaurant, and then stay to ride things out.
Fortunately, we had the opportunity to speak with him. I don't have much fear in me. In my younger days, I would go thrill seeking. That being said, I draw the line at Cat 3. If there's a Cat 4/5 coming? Get the Hell out! You do NOT ride out a Cat 4/5 - they ride you...
Don't listen to possibilities of weakening prior to landfall. True or false, will be carrying Cat 5 storm surge with her. Remember the 27+ foot (33' in places reported) surge from ? I'm afraid we'll see a new high-water mark set with . If you are within 10 miles of the coast, and less than 30 feet above sea-level, there should be NO debate. Load up, get what you need, and get gone.
YMMV SPSFD
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Full update now on the blogs. Further intensification possible, but the solution of 200mph in 48hr just before landfall? Not buying that one. This storm is a potential disaster and I hope everyone is prepared for the worst.
All of the previous recon planes are back home now...should get a new one heading out there soon; with weakening likely to commence within 12hr, they may miss the peak intensity of the storm if not. They can't always time the advisory packages and plane reports exactly -- and with the former not being able to budge, it's just coincidence that the planes do not get out there to send their reports in time for a given advisory.
More tomorrow, time permitting. Things are getting busy around here again. Thanks to those of you who have PM'd me (and the other mods, I'm sure) with your support.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Dude, if I were you I would NOT stay there. I just looked up your town on Google Earth. You live southeast of Houston closer to the coast and will experience higher winds and possibly storm surge depending on how close you are to the bay. If this storm comes into your area leave. I always thought that I would stay for a Cat. 4/5 if it ever hit...now I would probably go. Why? taught one lesson that stuck in my mind: Cat4/5 storms don't follow the expected damage and storm surge impacts. There were some places in Miss. that never expected storm surge flooding and got it....too many "rules" were broken with a Cat 4. Too many unintended consequences. That's just my advice to you as you wait for the storm in your home by yourself!
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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hey stevie I again post as I did on Friday before the Kat hit. I had folks come then and I welcome you to fill 2 bedrooms once more. God bless Arkansas and our measly 3 million for hurricane assistance.
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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I heard him say that at landfall it will be 155+ but was hoping that it will weaken, but he decline to say it or when that might happen prior to landfall.
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