pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Random..no offense but your last statement on track made me angry..lol..is the A98e reliable or more like the LBAR and bam?
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Random..no offense but your last statement on track made me angry..lol..is the A98e reliable or more like the LBAR and bam?
Well, given that the A98e combines the least reliable (Clipper) and a good global model (GFS), no clue.
As for that last statement...I don't like it either. I wish to h*** I wasn't seeing that, but every big further north gets, the harder it will be to get under that high and to Texas.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Agreed that stair stepping is probably going on. The edge of the ridge has permutations in it - however, looks to be about 290-300 deg the last 5-6 hrs while the forecasted path is close to 275. The 5 PM forecast has cross 25N at 90W. Based on my crude approximation, if the last 5-6 hours path continues, will cross 25N at 87.5 W - a full 2.5 deg long difference! There is a weakness in the upper ridge currently over the FL panhandle - I can't imagine that this would be affecting the storms recent motion - she seems to have slowed somewhat also.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6Z.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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RJB
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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it's not viewed as reliable...can't say why though...usually the outlier...but on it's 3rd or 4th run it nailed Kats path.Why it & some others end up so far off later I don't know.
I look for weird patterns with the models...they usually come in line closer to landfall...1st few runs are usually all over the place ya know? But I've noticed some of those early runs...especially from what's viewed as the less reliable ones...actually end up right on target.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
There is a weakness in the upper ridge currently over the FL panhandle - I can't imagine that this would be affecting the storms recent motion - she seems to have slowed somewhat also.
When you say a weakness in the upper ridge currently over the FL panhandle, can you be a little more clear/specific? How much of a weakness? Where in the panhandle? Could it suck the storm in? Doubt that that is what you mean, but I'm curious as to the significance of the weakness you speak on, since I had not heard about it before - and since I'm in the Panhandle it scares me.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Nobody wants to see it stay in that loop current.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Nobody wants to see it stay in that loop current.
Looking at the image posted earlier, it has only been in the loop current an hour or so... or was the 7am that it entered it? How much longer will it be over the loop current if it stays on the forecast track?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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The A98e has not been a very good model this year has it? I thought I read on here at one time the had done better with storms this year. Seems like most models are pretty close in agreement though
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Hugh, click on my CIMSS link in the previous post - it shows the weakness between two highs, one high over TX and the other just east of FL. The high over TX is forecast to slide east so I believe the panhandle is safe.
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RJB
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Yeah, well, 18Z run has it bullseyeing Galveston. That's not a nice track either...
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Ron, I checked the last 24 hours of movement. Did a quick calc to determine the angle from the sine value...heehee...***it is 285deg for the last 24 hours.*** edit--wrong! very close to 270deg. My mistake.
Another reason to want to see the 11pm and check those forecast points against the 5pm.
You know what'll be strange...seeing increase the intensity forecast for the 12hr once again.
Do you realize this has been going on for about 36 hours now, and the rate of intensity increase has accelerated over most of the last 12 hour
EDIT -- Ron check again. I had plotted the 5pm and show crossing 25N at about 90.3W. It is interesting to plot the forecast points as they change slightly over time (ya gotta have a lot of different color pens).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:06 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Hugh, click on my CIMSS link in the previous post - it shows the weakness between two highs, one high over TX and the other just east of FL. The high over TX is forecast to slide east so I believe the panhandle is safe.
I just looked at it. If the high moves east as forecast, yeah, we're safe here. It does appear that it might be trying to sneak in between the two highs briefly though.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Annular hurricanes have a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a ring of intense convection, with hardly any convection (i.e. bands) elsewhere. These types of storms are not prone to fluctuations in intensity related to the eyewall replacement cycles typically seen in intense tropical cyclones.
Statistics show that forecasters significantly underestimate the wind velocities following the time when the hurricane peaks. The errors occur because this type of hurricane maintains intensity longer than usual.
Less than 1% of Atlantic cyclones exhibit annular characteristics.
So if I read this right, then we should expect this to not weaken as advertised.
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Deltona, FL
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A little off subject, but i've wondered something and never asked. Why does the scale only go to a cat 5? Can they not mesuare anything higher than 174mph?
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
A little off subject, but i've wondered something and never asked. Why does the scale only go to a cat 5? Can they not mesuare anything higher than 174mph?
There has never been a wind speed measured higher than about 200 I think (Camille was 190 officially, the Labor Day storm was ~200 I think)... it's simply physics - if you don't have winds above a certain level you don't need a scale for them.
Edit: Actually,there is a scale above Cat 5, though. It ranges from F0 to F5, if I'm not mistaken. It's called the Fujitsi(I know I spelled that wrong) scale... and it's used for TORNADOs... which is pretty much what a 200mph hurricane is, a HUGE tornado.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 22 2005 01:53 AM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Because generally, there is no need for anything higher. Many storms don't even reach category 5, with the damage being so severe from such winds that the distinction between 150mph and 180mph does not warrant an entirely new categorization on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Full update on the storm coming later tonight.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I agree Random, that would be devastating. IMO there is no good place for this monster to go. Unfortunately it will make landfall somewhere. 
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RKS
Registered User
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Margie:
Sine is opposite over hypotenus. Tangent is opposite over adjacent. If you are using delta longitude and latitude, you should use tangent, not sine.
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John C
Unregistered
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Rita has all of the signs of an annular hurricane
Mike states it has all the sings of one, not that it is an Annular Hurricane. Time will tell! Nothing is set in stone.
JC
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
A little off subject, but i've wondered something and never asked. Why does the scale only go to a cat 5? Can they not mesuare anything higher than 174mph?
Safir-Simpson is meant to be a measure of destructive capability. Simply put, once you get to Cat 5, you can not break a lot more stuff. Not a whole lot of stuff withstands a Cat 5.
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Jim
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 22 2005 01:50 AM)
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