F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | >> (show all)
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: bobbutts]
      #56401 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:32 PM

Nothing new to the track on Rita, A path towards the Tx La coastline. Still my 3 day path was from Galveston to Lake Charles. I will tend more towards Lake Charles as i said in some privete emails 2-3 days ago but Galveston isnt out of the woods. Again I feel La is like Fl last year in hits.

BTW the upper-low way N of berumda wants to try to come down into the mid-levels now. Im still interested in this area even though again no models are doing anything with this.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: Marji]
      #56402 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:36 PM

I'm new to this forum....what does this mean, "Graveyard"?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56403 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:38 PM

Quote:

I'm new to this forum....what does this mean, "Graveyard"?




It means that the post was moved to a different forum because it was either irrevalent, overly speculative, completely crazy, pointless, idle chitchat, infamitory towards another user etc etc etc...

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
oil trader
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #56404 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:39 PM

I do not know it is important for this discussion or not. Oil market is betting right now for a weaker and more right landfall. It is not weather information and I am not going to emphasize the implicit efficiency of financial markets, but it is just a barometer of what the consensus is heading.

I personal think that Galvestone/Houston have already bought this storm (west camp). On the side of the strength I do expect a much softer landfall.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: scottsvb]
      #56405 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:41 PM

I'm interested to see what NHC will set the intensity to in the 2pm update. The wind data thus far from the latest recon reports suggest the max winds are no higher than 120 knots, but the surface pressure (915 mb) normally supports much stronger winds than that. The apparent ERC that is taking place is likely the cause of the large decrease in max winds and some of the decrease may just be temporary, assuming the pressure continues to hold steady or only slowly rise.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #56406 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:46 PM

winds are down to 150, im expecting landfall intensity now between 125-135, about the intensity of Celia (70) and Allen (80) at landfall

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lsr1166
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Tallahassee, Florida
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #56407 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:49 PM

000
WTNT33 KNHC 221735
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE Rita INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...RITA WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER...REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE...

...


RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.


...

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...25.5 N... 89.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Steering Currents [Re: oil trader]
      #56408 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:50 PM

I have an email into a friend in oil now to see how the markets treat this. If I'm not too far off subject, I'll post what I find out. I do think that a TX/LA border hit with a high Cat 3 would be less devistating thatn any direct hit in the Houston area. I note that oil is $66.75 today, down from $68.

The real impact of this will be heating oil, whixh is up 80% this year.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: Rabbit]
      #56409 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:50 PM

Check out the GFS 12Z run.....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Rita will now slide backwards into Mexico after landfall???


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
raine
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 6
Loc: Evans GA.
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: Lsr1166]
      #56410 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:51 PM

Hi guys I am a newbie, Is the weaking because of the ERC??

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: raine]
      #56411 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:54 PM

GFDL now brings Rita onshore east of Galveston with 120mph winds; GFS weakens it slightly and brings it in at the TX/LA border

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: raine]
      #56412 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:55 PM

The GFS and the UKMET each have the storm coming in on the TX/LA border, and never going any farther north than the LA northern border...will be a huge rain event for people in this location as well as east of the storm

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DougBaker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #56413 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:56 PM

if what you find out is not good for this forum, could you post what you find in a new forum? or send me a pm
.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: Rabbit]
      #56414 - Thu Sep 22 2005 01:58 PM

The new NOGAPS also brings Rita in very close to Galveston. I hope nobody in the Houston/Galveston area is letting their guard down because the buzz seems to have shifted to a more northward landfall.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #56415 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:01 PM

That is correct, and in fact, if you take note of the ir imagery during the last several hours, significant deeper reds have returned and occasionally wrap complete around the CDO... To this meteorologist, that is a preliminary indication that the recent well advertised ERC is completing. As this new ring of convection persists the new eye wall will contract and you will see the winds elevate smartly later on... potential
peace


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
collegemom
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #56416 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:04 PM

I received this email from my ex sis in law who has 4 kids and no husband. She's a cool cookie I say.


We can not leave because there is NO GASOLINE to be purchased anywhere. All the stations have sold out and a huge evacuation is in progress. It's 1 a.m. now & the streets are bumper to bumper. We went to the grocery store....all the water is sold out...all the peanut butter, etc....it's incredible. Those who plan to stay have asked me for permission to use my swimming pool water if necessary---for drinking and for flushing their toilets.

It took me 3 hours to drive home from work (24miles distance). I have not heard from Patricia or Danny yet. I have at times been unable to use my cell phone because it's so 'busy'. I was able to contact Dad's phone & leave a message. My home phone has been disconnected----because Robert was making phone calls on it in the middle of the night and ran up a long distance bill---so, decreased those happenings fairly easily='plan disconnect'...Ha. So at the moment we just have the cell phone.

Brooklynne and I tried driving to another town....no luck...no gas....people are leaving in droves with their BOATS and CAMPERS----and some with luggage strapped on top their vehicles. The stress level is very high---drivers yelling at each other---no rules of courtesy for the road!

There are 4 families on our street who are planning to stay. They have taped their windows and have sandbags.....some of them feel we would only get strong winds. They also told me how they plan to cook food and between everyone on the street we should have enough food for all.

On the radio they were talking about winds that would blow your door open and possibly expect broken windows and roof damage....who knows. However, plan "B" is we could possible siphon gas from Marc's '75 Oldsmobile if necessary.

I'm going to bed. We'll work on this in the morning. ( I could have done without the knowledge that my housing edition had been built upon a previous rice growing field....it was an excellent spot for flooding and growing rice!). Twenty yrs ago they grew a lot of rice in Katy--the main crop.

More later,
LaCresha

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: Marji]
      #56417 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:10 PM

Marji, can you be more specific? What was sent to the Graveyard... I've been over there and didn't find anything I wrote - not sure what you're meaning.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Bouy Info [Re: collegemom]
      #56418 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:11 PM

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
Average Period (APD): 10.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): ENE ( 76 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.14 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 °F


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Left out Info... [Re: Beach]
      #56419 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:12 PM

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 54.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 69.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 33.1 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.14 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.22 in ( Falling Rapidly )


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
funky
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 55
Re: new plots by NHC [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #56420 - Thu Sep 22 2005 02:20 PM

Quote:

That is correct, and in fact, if you take note of the ir imagery during the last several hours, significant deeper reds have returned and occasionally wrap complete around the CDO... To this meteorologist, that is a preliminary indication that the recent well advertised ERC is completing. As this new ring of convection persists the new eye wall will contract and you will see the winds elevate smartly later on... potential
peace




yes, the storm is now back in intesification mode clearly. the NHC is saying further weakening -- i see this thing strengthening to 165 again in the next 12 hours. it is about to cross back over to the warm eddy in the loop current, and i think we are seeing those high tops forming again because of it.

could someone post the links to the local weather tv stations webcast?

edit: the death toll will come from inland flooding this time. people inland along the tx/la border need to evacuate too. i don't think people realize this at this time. very terrible flooding about to occur inland.

--------------------
WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25

Edited by funky (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:29 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 150 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 80114

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center