ralphfl
Weather Master
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thank you.I wondered why till i read the 11pm which talks about storms this strong and how they act when they get like this so im sure in the end of jogs it will all pan out as west.Now if God would just let it not stop that jog many peoples lives would be alot better.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
thank you.I wondered why till i read the 11pm which talks about storms this strong and how they act when they get like this so im sure in the end of jogs it will all pan out as west.Now if God would just let it not stop that jog many peoples lives would be alot better.
And other lives would be ruined....
The problem with GOM storms is that there is precious little way to keep them from affecting someone...once a storm makes it in the Gulf someone has problems.
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Jason Kelley
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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well that is true but to go to Mexico would be alot better for everyone very unlikely to happen as i think this is just a jog but as stated before by dan i think best case is to just hit somewhere that is less since there is no way out unless it hits land.
Edited by ralphfl (Thu Sep 22 2005 04:19 AM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Does anyone know if early Friday morning would be too late to leave if the storm turns more north? We are under a voluntary
evacuation but if the storm turns more north they will make it mandatory. I live in Beaumont and have hotel reservations
in Lufkin for Friday night. When would the effects of the storm start hitting the coast? I noticed the track has shifted to landfall
around Freeport. Our meteorologist said if the storm slows down that wouldn't be good for us. I am hoping the track will
not shift any further north but need to be prepared. I've got five pets to load up. Fortunately, the hotel takes pets and I have two
rooms reserved.
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Jason, caught you on WTC the other night. I think your getting some sort of cult following, because my wife was like "Holy crap! Jason Kelley!"
On , where do you the the bottom is?
Edited by Doombot! (Thu Sep 22 2005 04:26 AM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Id make my mind up late thursday nite as up your way many will rush to get out since not many have left.Check back this time thursday and if its moved more north get out.
Well Jog looks to be over with and going due west again.
Edited by ralphfl (Thu Sep 22 2005 04:26 AM)
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I think I would leave as early as possible. With a storm this size I would think people will start to feel the effects long before it makes landfall. And the later you wait to leave the more likely you are to get caught in traffic. That is just my opinion but if it is supposed to make landfall between late Friday night and early Sat. morning I think that would be getting a late start evacuating.Good luck
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Just reviewed the 11pm forecast points and the landfall has moved a little to the NE, bringing it close to where the landfall was predicted a couple days ago. Unfortunately still to the SW of Galveston.
Any word on if they are going to be able to get recon in there soon? How strange to be missing these hours that are certain to have some record-setting numbers. The intensity forecast peaks sometime between now and 7am.
Cloud tops are continuing to get cooler on satellite, with only a couple more images to go before the nightly outage.
Oh I'm going to have to go soon...another nasty thunderstorm has arrived with hail and lightling. All night the Twin Cities has been getting hammered.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Jason, caught you on WTC the other night. I think your getting some sort of cult following, because my wife was like "Holy crap! Jason Kelley!"
On , where do you the the bottom is?
Thanks...I thought that the Storm Stories episode that we did turned out pretty good...
The bottom? I don't think this breaks Gilbert's 888mb, but it might break the 35 Labor Day's storms 894 (I think...maybe 892?) The problem might be that the recon is not in there right now, so it could be lower now than when they arrive and we won't know.
FYI, the recon enroute just passed over Panama City on the way in...
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Jason Kelley
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Clark
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Had an interesting discussion with one of the professors here this evening (yes, this late!) about the potential impact of the temperature fields in the Gulf. He believes -- and has support for it -- that the fast forward motion of the storm is keeping the upwelling from being rather significant (i.e. a significant negative contributor to the intensity of the storm). Thus, it is moreso the skin temperatures -- that at and near the surface -- that are the most important toward the current intensity of the storm.
Further, it is moreso the gradients along the areas of high and low oceanic heat content that are more important than the warm or cool eddies themselves. This results from it being an enhanced region of surface fluxes; with sufficiently warm temperatures along the gradient leading to favorable heat and moisture fluxes, this leads to a scenario favoring maintenance and intensification. Think of it somewhat like a temperature gradient along the Gulf Stream and how it can enhance midlatitude development and you're sort of along the right track. is forecast to move directly along such gradients during the rest of its time over open water.
Needless to say, it leads to an interesting quandry with the intensity forecast. Can it strengthen even further? Will such a scenario lead to maintenance of the storm despite inner-core fluctuations? If such a scenario occurs, how does it change how we view storms and the usage of the products out there representing upper oceanic heat content? All are valid questions and need to be asked...and answered; there are many more such related questions as well, all of which would probably take up two or three days just going through.
Food for thought for the night.
Recon is on the way; looks like, to my amazement, they flew out of Keesler.
(Or maybe not, given Jason's post above! Was going off of the 30N/88.5W first observation as my starting point.)
I think you are right Clark...I read it wrong! However, I don't think they departed BIX, just passed over it...
Edited by wxman007 (Thu Sep 22 2005 04:36 AM)
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ortyfinchers
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Loc: Abilene, Texas USA
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What do you think Abilene and West Texas might get from this storm?
All the motels here are booked.
Should we go further north?
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well it there's data from recon in these runs tonight.....
best bet that TX coast is a landfall....
00 22sept early runs
intensity2
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 22 2005 04:38 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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went from 30n to 27.5n in about 30mins......
URNT11 KNHC 220441
97779 04354 50273 8700/ 61000 07032 5761/ /8034
RMK AF307 1618A OB 02
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Thanks Clark for a very interesting post...especially considering the last couple days trying to get a handle on how SSTs versus deeper warm water affect increases in intensity. It seems that more than surface temps are required in order to get up to extreme intensities, as we only see the large mbar/hour drops once in the loop current, but once at that level, the reasoning why SSTs in certain situations may be able to maintain or enhance the current intensity, is information that hasn't really been discussed much on this forum so far this autumn.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Rita is basically unobserved right now, with no plane in there yet and the nightly satellite outage underway. From a scientific perspective, it would unfortunate if this storm peaked with no record of its maximum intensity. It'll be interesting to see not only the initial intensity from the latest recon but also the trend in subsequent reports.
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CoalCracker
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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My son left NW Houston with his wife, 10 month old daughter and two dogs for Little Rock, AR. He's about an hour north of Nacogdoches on 59 right now (approx midnight). No hotel rooms along 59 nor in Texarkana. Was able to find him a room in De Queen AR. He'll probably arrive around 3 AM CDT and catch a few hours before continuing. If anyone has a reservation and is not going to use it, they should cancel ASAP to let the folks who are evacuating have a place to stay. Looking at the strength and probable landfall area, my guess is my son's 55 year old bungalow is toast. They saved some money over the past few months and recently bought some new furniture to replace their hand me downs, but as I told him, it's only stuff; your most important possessions are each other. Like he said though. You're right but it still stinks (actual expletive deleted).
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BlueBrained
Registered User
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The list of strongest hurricanes of all time now reads:
Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb, 1988)
The Great Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb, 1935)
Hurricane (897 mb, 2005)
Hurricane Allen (899 mb, 1980)
Hurricane (902 mb, 2005)
Hurricane Camille (905 mb, 1969)
How low will go?
Another note, my sister left South Houston around 4 PM this afternoon, I talked to her around 11PM, she and her family have only gotten 40 miles north in 7 hours.
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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher
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That is amazing to me that they would let a monster like this brew for even a hour without some kind of recon. So how do the uninformed follow the data coming from the flights that are just going out? It seems like they have been relatively stingy with the recon data on this site.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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next report should be a vortex
URNT11 KNHC 220512
97779 05054 50260 8621/ 30500 12054 08088 /3087
RMK AF307 1618A OB 03
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Do not despair just yet - we are still 48hrs + from landfall
The impact in Houston will depend on the track and if the storm veers right and leaves Houston on the left side of the storm impact will be significantly less than the right front
Regardless the right move is to leave - be safe
It is however most un-nerving to pick up and leave a home questioning whether it will be there on your return
I have done this twice here -- Floyd '99 and '04 -- It is a feeling I don't forget
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