pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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i really do not see a NORTHERLY turn, NORTHWEST yes, but not a due north turn. heading last 3 hours was 315, due NW. It is still wobling as it goes, so depending on what part of the wobble it is on, the true heading could be east or west of NW. I know the track has shifted and I feel this nw component will bring the storm to the TX/LA borderi, which is a considerable change from yesterday, but should not be a major problem for NO, but a minor one..by the way, the surf here in Pensacola Beach is REALLY awesome right now.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Pry,
I would not think that far east is called for. The upper air dynamics won't allow for it to move that far east. But that is not to say, that the Panhandle won't start feeling the effects though. Remember, is a rather large storm now, almost the size of . So you should start feeling her tonight in not by late this afternoon.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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In the 5AM discussion they talked about some sheer. If it's heading more north and into the high doesn't that increase the shear too?
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Tp,
You have to remember that is still a CAT 5. If she does weaken some, it will take about 24hrs for her surge to weaken as well. So to say we won't see the storm surge is not entirely true statement.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Here is a link to the Bouys that are in the Gulf somewhat near the storm.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf.shtml
Galveston Bouys:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Galveston_Bay.shtml
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Delray,
I don't think that high or sheer as you call it will have any effect on . right now, looks pretty impressive as she did last night. So, the thinking is that will stand her ground, and I think an will take place today, which would be bad, since landfall is predicted for tomorrow night learly morning on Saturday. Best scenario would it happen late tonight or even tomorrow, but the RECON is stating they are starting to see the outter eyewall starting to max out in wind capacity, which would indicate that it is in the process to recycle.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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whenever we've got one of these well-defined super hurricanes you can always see the eye movement very well, and the normal wishy-washy not-straight track they take is more apparent. has thus far behaved pretty normally, oscillating right and left, but mostly right. if you look at the overall track errors there pretty low and pretty consistently to the left... but not a whole lot. this raises the threat level in western louisiana, with the highest probability impact zone being closer to the tx/la border now.. but new orleans is not under any greater threat. the storm will have passed their longitude this afternoon.
fyi, even though a hit east of houston will reduce their damage potential, beaumont takes up the slack. there's also more oil-related infrastructure to break over there. the trends are more of a consolation for houston, but worse for other folks.
it's morbid good news, but the forecast track is likely too strong... 3/4 borderline landfall is still where i'd keep my stock. point will remain at sargent, as guidance has already been on either side, and may just shift right back.
HF 1355z22september
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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Quote:
Pry,
I would not think that far east is called for. The upper air dynamics won't allow for it to move that far east. But that is not to say, that the Panhandle won't start feeling the effects though. Remember, is a rather large storm now, almost the size of . So you should start feeling her tonight in not by late this afternoon.
We already see some good E winds and a few rain bands moved through last night. I live on East Bay and the bay has been trucking pretty solidly to the east since yesterday afternoon. Even though we were a good distance from (only in the watch area) we still saw 70 mph sustained here. We're still trying to recover from , TS , TS Cindy and , who hit us dead-on- all within the last year. So I hope you understand my skittishness. Thanks for the info!
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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I ment to note:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
Is reporting:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 44.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 56.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 30.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 12 sec
The Bouy is located Mid Gulf about 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Re-read what I typed.
The reference to sloughing off surge was in the event of a drastic direction change. Something I have stated I don't see happening. I've been the one saying that even if this storm weakens, if it stays on its current path, it'll be carrying the Cat 5 storm surge with it.
No worries, but I was rather clear in my statement. Apologies if you misunderstood.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Hank,
What is your take on the theory that will try to get in between the two high pressures and ride that along to the North?
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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if anything, i think we are seeing some good news (if you can call it that)...the center and ne quadrant will most likely land somewhere around Calcasieu Lake to Cypremort Point State Park. This is a good thing right? I am not from the area, but seeing it on the maps, it looks mostly to be unpopulated areas. n.o. will be spared, and so will houston/galveston if the trend continues....we can only hope now...
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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wnw-nw for 2 more hours...followed by a defintive nw for the next 4-5 hours...followed by a nw-nnw...
you get the idea...
still think New Orleans is a distinct possibility, IF the hurricane continues it's eastward shift.
definitely gonna track east another 250 miles from the current "official" track. when you look at the achieved N position right now...it is EAST of the projected point at least 60 miles....
simple geometric extrapolation shifts it east a lot.
Rick, hurricanes do NOT follow simple geometric extrapolation! Is there a weakness in the ridge to the north of ? Yes. It is also not a very strong one and trust me, the people at the know better than you and I what this means for the forecast track. It needs to be watched, sure, but to suggest that it is going to go there? Not sure. From here on out, let's tone it down just a little, k? Thanks... -Clark
Edited by Clark (Thu Sep 22 2005 03:27 PM)
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ontario, Canada
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42038
Greattt...one of the key buoys was snapped from its mooring line(i ass|u|me by ).
Bet they now wish the maintenance schedule had put repairing that station at the top of the list...
Edit:ohh I just checked the maintenance list...
42038 April 2006 Restore station (set adrift by ).
Gotta love budgets, they allow you to fix equipment thats damaged half way through a hurricane season so you can get readings for the next one(disgusted look on face)
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
Edited by Psyber (Thu Sep 22 2005 02:12 PM)
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heynow
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Abbeville, LA
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Not sparsley populated at all. The Lake Charles/Lafayette region has approximately 1 million people. Not to mention these cities are bulging at their seems because taking in NOLA evacuees.
This is looking real bad for us (Abbeville is 15 miles south of Lafayette and 20 miles north of the GOM).
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I've lived through Danny ('85), Juan ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05) and Gustav ('08).
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Rick,
Got a question for you. Do you have it in for N.O? Evertime you post, you state the N.O is not out of the woods, it is getting closer etc. I was just curious why you continue your rant about N.O. when all indications show that N.O will not be in the cone. Now I believe that from the center of LA and Westard will be in th econe, thats not to say the N.O won't feel any ill effects by , in which I think they will.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Hank,
Any information as to when RECON is going out or are they there now, and what about the IMM update at 10:00AM?
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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when I posted I thought Gaveston instead of further south...did I have it in for Galveston?....
next time I'll put a lat/long instead of a city....perhaps that will help. sorry if it appeared in my posts that I am HOPING New Orleans gets it...not at all.
it's what I am seeing.
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Navarre, FL
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Quote:
Rick,
Got a question for you. Do you have it in for N.O? Evertime you post, you state the N.O is not out of the woods, it is getting closer etc. I was just curious why you continue your rant about N.O. when all indications show that N.O will not be in the cone. Now I believe that from the center of LA and Westard will be in th econe, thats not to say the N.O won't feel any ill effects by , in which I think they will.
I don't think what Rick is saying can be called a rant... just an opinion. He has a point, though- although the official forecast still has it beelining for Texas, the last few frames indicate an eastward shift. I think all he is trying to say is that no one- including the NO area- is quite out of the realm of possibility yet.
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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heynow
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: Abbeville, LA
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And the broader point being that NOLA cannot, I repeat, cannot withstand the surge that this storm will bring. Even if NOLA is not in the cone, the affects of could make things much worse in the city. NOLA cannot even withstand a couple of days of hard rain right now.
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I've lived through Danny ('85), Juan ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05) and Gustav ('08).
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